Breeders Crown: Eliminations force us to use our imagination

If you were one of those that witnessed a string of Breeders Crown eliminations last Thursday-Saturday, it would be safe to conclude that the races left something to the imagination. From odds-on favorites finishing off the board to division leaders defeated in various ways, imagination will be necessary if there are profits to be made wagering on the 12 divisional titles set to be awarded on Friday and Saturday night at Harrah's Hoosier Park.

While it was unsettling to some to witness the behavior of a few of the horses and horsemen that "competed" in the trials which set the fields for the rich finals, it shouldn't come as a shock to anyone that the main purpose of the eliminations was to reach the finals. Though the suggestion to many is that every race should find all horses and drivers doing their utmost to win, there is a clear warning on the program pages in bold lettering that says what the objectives are. Wagering under those conditions must be done with caution.

With the eliminations complete, a careful look must be made at the performances of the horses that won and lost to evaluate just what version of a particular horse will show up for the finals. There has been erosion in many of the divisions over the course of the year, with battle-worn stars not racing at the same competitive levels they were a few months ago.

Looking at the glamour division for 3-year-old colt and gelding pacers last Saturday (October 21), three eliminations brought to light a few that appear to be on the way up and those that could be on the way down. Coach Stefanos and El Rey's performances were exceptional, with the broader harness world introduced to the Indiana star Coach Stefanos for the first time via his monstrous last quarter in overtaking Jug winner It's My Show. What stuck out to me in this division was just how slow the fractions were and perhaps how that made Coach Stefanos look even better than he was. To some it looked very much like a qualifying race, with sprinters having the edge no matter where they are positioned at the three- quarter marker. What did seem apparent was that It's My Show's last two races following a grueling Little Brown Jug victory suggest the North America Cup winner is not as sharp as he was earlier in the campaign. The Jug has always been a critical test for sophomores positioned in September with a pair of heats guaranteed. This year, with its seven-figure purse, perhaps it sucked the energy out of all that raced hard two times in the same afternoon.

That's kind of the vibe I get when witnessing Cannibal get rolled in the homestretch by El Rey, making his first start for new trainer and co-owner Andrew Harris in the Crown trials. While Cannibal did in fact beat El Rey when the two last met in the Tattersalls at The Red Mile in a close photo, it is now difficult to assess whether El Rey flying at the finish and Cannibal just getting there was the result of trips or that one is in fact getting a bit better towards the end of the year and the other is losing his edge. That's the only conclusion that I could make from watching Saturday's elimination. El Rey did his best racing last fall when he captured the Governor's Cup for trainer Tony Alagna, and perhaps the cooler weather and the fact that he'd spent much of the summer racing against cheaper company is a good enough reason to believe he suddenly can tackle horses in Cannibal's league. As for Cannibal, while Yannick Gingras did get the front with the Nancy Takter-trained son of Sweet Lou, it didn't come without paying the price of being parked through the entire first turn. Though the fractions following the first quarter were moderate, the early sting could have taken enough out of Cannibal to make him suspect late over the extremely long Hoosier homestretch. Though El Rey had not been known as the type to take air in his Alagna-based career, on Saturday he was reserved for much of the race and only exposed briefly as driver Dexter Dunn got in behind Cannibal in the early stretch, giving his horse the confidence to go by late.

Cannibal, like It's My Show, put in two brutally tough miles on Jug day, and perhaps the wear and tear was showing a bit in the eliminations.

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Then, of course, there was Horse of the Year favorite Confederate winning his elimination but hardly doing so in easy fashion. Trainer Brett Pelling confirmed on Sunday (October 22) that his colt did take a few elongated strides when Tim Tetrick moved him to the outside past the half in his elimination race. Pelling said that Confederate was not wearing knee boots as has been his custom since he was still recovering from a laceration that took place in advance of the Tattersalls. That said, Confederate was able to regain his stride and advance on the leaders, but he did not roll by in the stretch as easily as we've seen him over the course of the year. Here is where a look back to his Tattersalls victory may be worthwhile. That's because he was parked through a brutal half, took on pressure and won convincingly, but as always, the question remains at what cost?

Pelling didn't rule out that Confederate's effort on Saturday may have been a bounce off his Tattersalls mile, but he was more interested in looking forward.

"He'll get the knee boots back," said Pelling about the final. As to the victory, Pelling confirmed that Tim Tetrick didn't want to ask Confederate early in the stretch, and that once he did the colt responded and was drawing away from his rivals in the final strides. Despite the theoretically lackluster performance by Confederate, he did pace the fastest of the three eliminations, winning in 1:49 4/5. That was the second-fastest mile of the night, eclipsed only by Bythemissal, and a tick faster than Tattoo Artist needed to win his elimination.

The demands of the sophomore pacing colt and gelding division clearly have taken a toll, but the same can't be said for the filly sophomore division where the two leaders were upset on Friday night. Twin B Joe Fresh got out-sprinted by the streaking Zanatta in her elimination race, and Strong Poison and Yannick Gingras stole away through soft fractions with heavily-favored Sylvia Hanover just way too far off the pace to catch her despite the long stretch. With $600,000 riding on Saturday night, there's no reason to believe both beaten favorites won't have much more to say about the outcome of the Breeders Crown final than they did in its eliminations.

If there is one trainer that's managed to keep all his horses in form throughout the year, it's Ake Svanstedt. Following an incredible sweep of the Simpson races at Pocono with 11 winners, Svanstedt's horses looked equally sharp at Harrah's Hoosier Park, with Jiggy Jog S looking like the same horse that was terrorizing her division earlier this year. Up Your Deo showed speed at both ends in downing Hambletonian and Kentucky Futurity champion Tactical Approach in his Crown trial. A night earlier, his pair of sophomore fillies, Bond and Special Way, captured their eliminations in solid fashion, with the latter looking for her second straight Breeders Crown in a sophomore season where she'd been sidelined through many significant contests.

Svanstedt's 2-year-old filly Warrawee Michelle has improved with each start and figures to be a main player in Friday's $700,000 Crown final in that division.

What will the outcome of the Breeders Crown races be? All we can do is make educated guesses and await the results.