Breeders Crown: Deciphering what to make of the elimination upsets
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It's the autumn season where leaves change color and fall to the ground. This past weekend the landscape of many of the sport's divisions took a different shape as well when favorites fell by the wayside, opening the door to a change of the guard come the 12 Breeders Crown finals slated for this weekend at the Meadowlands.
Elimination races can be boring and though drivers were continually prodded in post-race interviews of the "value" of winning a $25,000 race that comes in advance of one that's $600,000, there was ample evidence that the answers were more a wink and a nod than confirmation.
For the most part the eliminations had action and intrigue, but it was also evident that they had strategy, with many opting for the easier path to the finals, post position guarantees on the first 60 percent of the starting gate be damned.
Perhaps the biggest surprises came when horses like Disney and Daquiri Hanover rallied from out of the clouds at huge numbers to post dramatic upsets. In Disney's case, few could have expected a filly to come from last off slow fractions to conquer as she did. The daughter of Always B Miki has been improving and her victory was no fluke, but at the same time the fractions in this elimination race were soft enough to allow Todd McCarthy to put her in striking distance for a final-quarter sprint. In an era of speed, speed and more speed, it doesn't come as a surprise when slower-than-class three- quarter times lead to covered-up sprinters surprising. For my money, I wouldn't condemn the losers in this division or elevate Disney to elite status.
As for Daiquiri Hanover's late-race heroics, it was a complete different set of circumstances, and I guess an unfortunate revealing of the group a week too early for those looking for a division that should have all come down to the Breeders Crown finale. The long-awaited battle between division rivals Karl and Highland Kismet finally took shape this past Saturday (October 19) with the two squaring off in head-to-head combat that produced the most satisfying spectacle of the weekend's programs if not a shocking outcome. Unlike many of the other Breeders Crown eliminations, the division with Karl and Highland Kismet was set up for drama when drawn, with a few new twists to the plot thrown in. When the two last met in the Kentucky Futurity neither was victorious, but the reasons were different. Highland Kismet was hard-used, some might say overused in the battle for the front in the Futurity, and paid the price. Karl had the same trip he enjoyed winning the Hambletonian but struggled in the stretch, finishing fifth in the Futurity. A few weeks later Karl would add Lasix and Highland Kismet would change drivers to Tim Tetrick. Perhaps each of the connections thought they had the exact answer for defeat and would remedy the problem in the Breeders Crown elimination.
It certainly seemed that both camps felt confident when watching the race this past Saturday because Yannick Gingras was most assertive driving Karl, much as he had during his early season dominance with power. Perhaps different in October than May was the presence of other talented and now less intimidated rivals. Tony Adams S was a colt that had seen a 52 4/5 first-half personally in the Kentucky Futurity, and driver Dexter Dunn was able to gain the front with him in a 27 second first quarter in the Crown elimination and not grab up entirely before allowing Karl to pass. That produced a solid opening half for Karl and Gingras of 55 2/5 and in theory gave Tetrick all the ammunition he needed to attack and give Highland Kismet that chance to look Karl in the eye.
The two leading sophomores hooked up in a spirited fight, but much like the Hambletonian's final eighth of a mile, this Breeders Crown elimination found the pair quite winded, opening a huge door for an upset. While Daiquiri Hanover and Greenspan both had clear paths to pass the exhausted leader, Tony Adams S and Dunn were clearly compromised, losing all momentum yet still making the final.
While Karl and Highland Kismet have clearly lost the edge they had over rivals early this year, and the former electing to skip the final due to sickness, this Saturday's race will be one that requires close examination of not just the program pages, but that announcements concerning shoeing. Give credit to team Burke for rejuvenating T C I to the position of Breeders Crown contender. Driver David Miller seemed sort of happy in his winner's circle interview while suggesting that the final might prove much faster and more contentious than the walk-in-the-park performance in T C I's elimination heat. Yet T C I really wasn't the biggest story in his division as visually it was Sig Sauer, the impressive Kentucky Futurity champion that had hoped to sail into and through the Breeders Crown with a championship in sight.
Sig Sauer's demeanor was noticeable when he stepped on the track and started throwing his head. Previously, trainer Noel Daley had suggested that the Muscle Hill-sired colt could be a pain in the ass before a race, and that was exactly how he appeared with Andrew McCarthy doing his best to keep him calm. Bettors, on the other hand, appeared to take notice and the odds on Sig Sauer, following his dominant and authoritative performance in the year's only sub-1:50 mile for sophomore trotters, drifted up accordingly as those prone to wagering on the chalk decided to look for safer options.
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McCarthy did his best to get Sig Sauer away cleanly from the rail position. Unlike his assertiveness with the colt at The Red Mile, this time Sig Sauer started slowly from the rail and hardly made a move, with McCarthy gauging the number of horses behind him as opposed to the front.
Closers had little chance in the stretch, with T C I comfortable and sprinting home, and the battle was always for the last four spots in the final. McCarthy had a moment in the stretch where it appeared that Sig Sauer was about to lose his stride, but the driver saw that didn't happen and calmly got him over the line in fourth and earned a spot to next week's bigger dance. Those who bet him at 6-5 odds may want to follow up this week if he looks calmer and perhaps is sporting fewer shoes for the Crown final.
While Karl and Highland Kismet had something to prove, Twin B Joe Fresh really didn't in an elimination race her connections saw to be in as opposed to taking a bye. Likely because of inactivity, trainer Chris Ryder wanted to have a prep for the sport's number-one ranked horse, and the results were surprising but not exactly shocking. Grace Hill sat a pocket and charged by Twin B Joe Fresh in an elimination that saw all but two of the 10 mares advance to the final. Mission accomplished for those, even though Twin B Joe Fresh's winning streak was snapped in the process. It's safe to say that Dunn gave his mare a chance to win without extending her, or for that matter being overly concerned by what horse was sitting behind him. The previous version of Grace Hill we have seen this year didn't appear to be up for the performance we witnessed this past Saturday. That said, the Grace Hill reveal could make the Crown final more interesting, yet Twin B Joe Fresh and Dexter Dunn will still have a host of trip options for the final and remain the logical favorites to secure the title.