Breakout Beyers: Figure doesn’t tell the entire story of Pastor T’s big effort

Each week in this space, the top Beyer performances by maiden winners will be featured and analyzed. Click here for a complete archive.

Pastor T
Aug. 12, 8th race Del Mar, MdSpWt83k
Beyer: 79
5 1/2 furlongs 1:04.15 – 1st by 4 1/4 lengths
b.c.2, Into Mischief – Top Quality, by Quality Road
Noteworthy siblings: None
Auctions: None
Owner: Siena Farm and WinStar Farm
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Breeder: WinStar Farm

This is a case, for a couple reasons, where the Beyer could easily underrate the horse. Not that 79 isn’t a solid debut figure (in fact, it’s better for a horse, long term, not to run much faster than that first time out), but Beyers don’t factor in ground loss, and, wow, did Pastor T have some ground loss. He broke just fine when favored here at odds-on on his career debut, but lacked early zip and could only stalk through the first furlong. Pastor T took closer order going into the turn, but so did several other horses, and with the leader racing two paths off the rail, Pastor T, widest of all, was a full six wide for most of the turn. Not only did he hold his position, but he improved it a bit, passing three rivals before the quarter pole and moving in a couple paths turning for home. The colt raced in a shadow roll and blinkers but still might have been looking at the stands as he took the corner into the homestretch, not fully focused. In any case, it took a few extra strides and a good nudge from the rider to get him to change at leads at the eighth pole, and from there, Pastor T drew away smoothly and easily. Trainer Bob Baffert seems generally to eschew long, strong gallop-outs after a race, but the rider moved his hands a bit into the clubhouse turn, letting Pastor T continue opening distance on the other horses before being pulled up at the head of the backstretch. This colt has the cadence and rhythm of a route horse; expect better things at longer distances.

Deterministic
Aug. 12, 5th race Saratoga, MdSpWt105k
Beyer: 81
7 furlongs 1:24.18 – 1st by a half-length
b.c.2, Liam’s Map – Giulio’s Jewel, by Speightstown
Noteworthy siblings: None
Auctions: Keeneland September yearling 2022 – $625,000
Owner: St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, Steven Duncker, Vicarage Stable
Trainer: Christophe Clement
Breeder: Hinkle Farms

He was game, he overcame trouble (of his own making), and his final furlong in 12.85 was fastest among eight 2-year-olds, so, all in all, a good debut from Deterministic. The trouble came at the start, where he was off poorly, placing him near the back of the field while forcing him to take a lot of kickback on what appeared to be a somewhat heavy, tiring surface (note the slow winning time). This wasn’t one of those cases where a horse drags its rider into contention after a slow start; Joel Rosario was riding Deterministic past the half-mile pole. Once he was switched outside at the three-furlong marker away from most of the dirt spray coming back into his face, Deterministic traveled better. He did edge in slightly, contributing to some bumping, coming widest at the top of the stretch, digging in to run down the leader in the final half-furlong. He appears at this point to be of modest size and scope. The dam was a sprinter, but the deeper pedigree has stamina and, going back far enough, turf. Got a world of seasoning winning first time out.