Brad Free's Saudi Cup 2020 picks and analysis

$20 million Saudi Cup, 1 1/8 miles, King Abdulaziz Racetrack

1 - Maximum Security
2 - McKinzie
3 - Tacitus
4 - Midnight Bisou

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Unless traditional handicapping principles are turned upside down in the Lasix-free, Bute-free Middle East, the $20 million Saudi Cup should reward the most important quality of an American dirt horse – speed.

Two of America’s fastest – MAXIMUM SECURITY and MCKINZIE – will be racing under conditions that play to their strength. At a mile and one-eighth on dirt, around one turn, it will be a surprising if one or the other does not win the world’s richest race.

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This is not a unique opinion; they are the favorites. Meanwhile, a gray menace threatens to upend predictable analysis. TACITUS is not fast enough yet, but he is a better horse now than in his most recent start five months ago. His physicality and presence this week at King Abdulaziz Racetrack suggests he could at least outrun his 15-1 morning line.

The main track at King Abdulaziz was kind to speed on Friday, which is not the same as track bias. If a heated pace ensues, the race could fall apart. But when has MAXIMUM SECURITY ever folded from a pace battle? Never. When has MCKINZIE ever not fired? Once.

MAXIMUM SECURITY is one of two main speeds, drawn outside expected pacesetter longshot NORTH AMERICA. If the longshot breaks well, MAXIMUM SECURITY figures to secure an ideal trip positioned second. MAXIMUM SECURITY is fast, but does not need to lead. Sitting second behind a longshot is an ideal trip. If the longshot does not break, then MAXIMUM SECURITY should find himself setting the pace.

MAXIMUM SECURITY has run well over six different surfaces (including a muddy track at Gulfstream). He should get first run into the lane. It will take a good horse to beat him. There are several candidates, but one in particular.

MCKINZIE is not a front-runner, but he is fast. He cracked 1:33 finishing second with trouble in the Met Mile, he earned triple-digit figures his last eight starts, and one turn hits him between the eyes. He has trained well, drew outside and he should be forwardly placed. MCKINZIE will attack the favorite into the lane. Maybe the two best horses in the field will run away. Maybe a longshot gray will spring an upset.

TACITUS, Grade 2 winner and Grade 1 placed, has filled out since his last start five months ago. Few horses this week at King Abdulaziz have looked as good while training. TACITUS will fire, and perhaps run the best race of his career.

Blinkers are off; trainer Bill Mott does not believe they produced improvement even if TACITUS did produce more speed. It does not matter Saturday. TACITUS will drop off the pace. To win the Saudi Cup, or hit the board, he must do it from behind. At double-digit odds, TACITUS offers wagering value to win and in exactas with the favorites.

MIDNIGHT BISOU, making her first start against males, will rally. Is she fast enough? Her form and speed figures suggests she is a borderline contender, but she has trained well, looks good, and is 3 for 3 around one turn. Look for her late.

BENBATL is grass class, a multiple Grade 1 turf winner and decisive last-out Grade 2 dirt winner. CAPEZZANO dominated a Grade 3 dirt mile last out in his Dubai comeback, but wheels back on short notice. MUCHO GUSTO faces a severe class hurdle after defeating an ordinary field in the Pegasus.

NORTH AMERICA is speed, but probably in tough. GRONKOWSKI is late speed, second start off a layoff. Last year at 4 he ran so-so in his comeback and improved a ton next out to finish second by a nose in the Dubai World Cup. At 30-1, GRONKOWSKI merits longshot consideration.

CHRYSOBERYL is 6 for 6, so how can you knock him? But these are tougher than he has been facing in Japan. GOLD DREAM also is from Japan, and will take dirt from the inside post. GREAT SCOT is a Grade 3-winning turf horse. MAGIC WAND is first-time dirt in career start No. 24. MJJACK has a five-race win streak here at King Abdulaziz. He probably is outclassed.

Bottom line: MAXIMUM SECURITY and MCKINZIE look evenly matched as the favorites. TACITUS looms the upset candidate in a one-turn dirt race tailor-made for the American shippers.

* Post time for the Saudi Cup is 8:40 p.m. local time, which is 12:40 p.m. Eastern and 9:40 a.m. Pacific. The race will be shown live on FS1 as part of a broadcast that begins at noon Eastern.