Brad Free's Santa Anita Preview for Saturday, April 20, 2019

Handicapping opinions, Saturday at Santa Anita …

Race 1 – Lucky Lately (4) enters this maiden turf mile as most probable winner on the card. No surprise, the last-out runner-up is favored. But the race offers “vertical value” with 12-1 upset candidate Weather Market (1). Her speed figures are creditable, her closing style is opposite the favorite. She has just one recorded work since her most recent start two months ago, but that is not unusual for trainer Mike Pender. Exacta/trifecta wagering strategy: concede race to Lucky Lately, insist Weather Market finish second or third.

Race 2 – Dirt races at one mile recently have been dominated by front-runners and pace-pressers. That plays to the strength of maiden-claiming gelding Outlaw (2), second choice in the program. At 5-2, he is a low-odds overlay. The 2-1 favorite is deep-closing class dropper Union Station (6). No thanks.

Race 4 – First-time starter Flower Point (4) should come out firing in this five-furlong maiden turf sprint. “We think she’s really good,” trainer John Sadler said. She is believed to be quick; her dam was a debut winner at four and a half. Flower Point probably will get bet down from her 4-1 program odds. Potential single?

Race 5 – Kanthaka (5) is likely to start favored in the Grade 2 Kona Gold, and he is due for a break. (Daily Racing Form race advance: https://bit.ly/2UNxRkS). Intrigued by 4-1 shot All Out Blitz (3), an improved colt who figures for a dream trip positioned second behind Cistron (2). Not a fan of program favorite Dr. Dorr (1) in this spot, though he finished in front of Kanthaka last out.

Race 6 – Tammy’s Window (5) and program favorite Tiny Tina (6) should lock up this N1X turf mile for fillies and mares.

Race 8 – If she starts at her program price of 3-1, the consistent Stradella Road (8) will be a low-odds overlay in this N1X turf mile, a split of the sixth race. Two-time runner-up at this level, Stradella Road drops from a Grade 3. Overlay alert: suspect the best races are still ahead from lightly raced upset candidate Peter’s Kitten (3).

Race 9 – Maiden-30 sprinters close out the card, Victor’s Show (4) and Wicken Fen (9) are the unimaginative one-two choices. This handicapper will include 8-1 first-time starter Elite Motion (1) on all tickets. He looks sneaky, at a price.

First post Saturday, 1 p.m.