Brad Free's Del Mar preview: Curious track profile on first day of racing week

After two dark days, racing resumes Wednesday at Del Mar. Three of the eight races are a mile on dirt and include low-odds contenders with similar up-front styles – Desert Madam (race 1), Kristo (race 5), and Conquest Cobra (race 7) all run on or near the lead.

From a macro perspective, it is no big deal. The main track at Del Mar has played fair most of summer. Except for a few days when bias influenced results (July 23 pro-speed for example), it has not been a major factor.

There is a glaring exception. Either by coincidence or design, front-runners have fared poorly in mile dirt races the first day of the racing week. It might be a fluke. Or perhaps, there is a valid explanation.

Perhaps track maintenance on dark days creates a surface less conducive to two-turn speed the first day back. The data is hard to ignore.

Winners, mile dirt, first day back (opening-day Friday, all Wednesdays)
Wire to wire: 1 of 10
Within one length: 1 of 10
Three or more lengths behind: 5 of 10

Compared to every other racing day, the contrast is conspicuous.

Winners, mile dirt (Thursdays through Sundays; exclude opening-day Friday)
Wire to wire: 5 of 23
Within one length: 15 of 23
Three or more lengths behind: 3 of 23

Closers do best in one-mile dirt races on Wednesdays; speed does best in one-mile dirt races every other day.

The main track often is slower the first day of the week. Slow, tiring tracks can be a challenge for a speed horse. That was the case July 15 opening day, and Wednesday, Aug. 17, when the surface was slower than normal and two-turn closers had the edge.

How will the Del Mar main track play Wednesday? Based on the first six weeks of racing, low-odds speed horses might be up against it.

Desert Madam is the 5-2 program favorite in race 1, Kristo is 5-2 second choice in race 5, and Conquest Cobra is the 5-2 program favorite in race 7. All three are front-runners or pace-pressers, racing one mile.

Maybe the track-profile data is a small-sample coincidence.

Or maybe, all three low-odds contenders are vulnerable on the first day of the racing week.