Brad Free's cross-country plays for Saturday, May 9, 2020

Brad Free’s cross-country plays for Saturday, May 9, 2020

A big thank you is owed bettors who chased the Rainbow 6 at Gulfstream Park the past several weeks. Thanks to their support, the jackpot ballooned to more than $1.4 million on Friday. Saturday is mandatory payout for the 20-cent wager.

Most of the time, the Rainbow 6 is tough to beat. On non-mandatory days without a single-ticket winner, 56 cents of each dollar wagered is returned – an effective takeout rate of 44 percent (20 percent standard takeout and 24 percent – 30 percent of the 80 percent net – allocated to the jackpot).

But on Saturday, takeout is virtually nil. New wagers are expected to be in the $7 million range. After subtracting takeout and adding the $1.4 million jackpot, total return to winning bettors should also be in the $7 million range. It is a zero percent takeout wager on Saturday, give or take a few points.

You could say the wager is a freebie, but everyone knows otherwise. Most tickets including the $33.60 “caveman ticket” outlined here will go down in flames. But everyone dreams, so might as well take a shot. The card Saturday at Gulfstream is actually interesting. Diving in:

Gulfstream Park, race 7 (3:49 ET) – Afficionado (No. 2) ran well last year in France, and has worked well for her Lasix-on U.S. debut in this allowance turf sprint. Fast Scene (3) is the speed of the speed; Compensate (10) will rally late. One and done? Hope not. Three-deep: 2, 3, 10.

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Gulfstream Park, race 8 (4:27 ET) – Louie’s Kingdom (5) could win, or run last. No surprise either. Re-claimed for $30,000 last out, entered and scratched for $6,250 a week ago, she shows up for $16,000. If “best horse” Louie’s Kingdom does not win, who does? Single: 5.

Gulfstream Park, race 9 (4:59 ET) – This $75,000 turf stakes attracted a good field. Admission Office (11) has finished in the money five times in his last seven starts, all graded stakes. One could argue he is the class of the field. El Tormenta (3) got chewed up on a hot pace in his comeback. The 12-1 shot removes blinkers, second start back. Two-deep: 3, 11.

Gulfstream Park, race 10 (5:30 ET) – Might be wasting money; favorite Battle of Blenheim (6) looks tough on standard handicapping. But this allowance/optional claiming turf race came up deep. Upset? One can hope. Fourteen-deep (all): 1-16 (maximum starters = 14).

Gulfstream Park, race 11 (6:01 ET) – I’ll Fight Dempsey (4) takes a subtle drop from open to statebred allowance. He shortens from seven furlongs to six. He worked well since raced according to the Daily Racing Form Gulfstream Clocker Report. If he can ration his speed despite pace rival Whiskey Sunrise (11), and if he runs back to his highly rated debut victory two back, I’ll Fight Dempsey can deliver as the chalk. Single: 4.

Gulfstream Park, race 12 (6:32 ET) – Longshot closer The Robert (1) and favorite Peppi the Hunter (4) finish the sequence. It’s not enough coverage, but it will have to suffice. Two-deep: 1, 3.

The ticket: Races 7-12, Rainbow 6 (20-cent minimum): 2, 3, 10; with 5; with 3, 11; with 1-16 (14 max); with 4; with 1, 3 = $33.60.