Brad Free's Belmont Stakes analysis

Preakness winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up EXAGGERATOR figures to start at low odds in the Belmont Stakes. He also figures to win. Exaggerator emerged as one of the country’s top two 3-year-olds – the other being Derby winner Nyquist, whose absence from the Belmont lowers the price on Exaggerator. Of course, low odds might be the best reason to wager against.

Three starts by Exaggerator at 1 1/8 miles or longer were super. He romped in the Santa Anita Derby. He was the only late runner to make an impact while finishing second in the Kentucky Derby, and he followed with a decisive victory in the Preakness. What’s not to like other than price? He runs well in the mud and also on fast. Exaggerator reportedly has done well physically since the Preakness, worked over the Belmont track Tuesday, and enters as simply the best horse.

The favorite’s apparent superiority over rivals he already dusted suggests that if an upset occurs, it will be by a new face to the Triple Crown. Enter the improving GOVERNOR MALIBU, whose last start was a solid runner-up finish in the Grade 2 Peter Pan. He got stalled on the far turn while the winner, Unified, got first run. Governor Malibu cut the corner into the lane, and then finished well for second. Governor Malibu has improved with each start. His trainer posted a Belmont upset two years ago with Tonalist, who prepped by winning the Peter Pan. Governor Malibu is likely to be positioned in front of Exaggerator.

CREATOR had a tough trip when finishing 13th in the Kentucky Derby. He took up sharply nearing the head of the lane, got stopped, and then went evenly late. Sans trouble, he would have finished much closer. The last-to-first upset winner of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby prior to the Kentucky Derby, Creator figures as a contender with a clean trip.

STRADIVARI ran well in the Preakness, chasing a fast pace and finishing fourth. He has trained well since and will be among the front-runners in a race that might unfold at a modest tempo.

Suddenbreakingnews, fifth in the Derby after early trouble, will roll late. Gettysburg adds speed and could help set it up for deep-closing WinStar stablemate Creator. Lani is moving forward and reportedly has trained better than he did prior to his ninth in the Derby and fifth in the Preakness.

Brody’s Cause was compromised by the speed-favoring race flow when seventh in the Derby. He might have another forward move in him. Cherry Wine, the runner-up in the Preakness, will finish. Destin finished an okay sixth in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and enters the Belmont as a fresh horse. The others are difficult to make a case for.