Brad Free's Belmont Stakes analysis

Selections
1. Frosted
2. American Pharoah
3. Materiality
4. Mubtaahij

FROSTED is positioned for an “upset” as the likely second choice in the Belmont Stakes. He has been freshened five weeks since a solid fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, a race dominated by frontrunners. Frosted was one of the only late runners to make an impact. He was shuffled early, uncorked a wide move on the far turn, kept to his task late, and missed by only 3 1/4 lengths. He skipped the Preakness, enters the Belmont fresh, and has looked good in morning workouts, according to clocker reports.

AMERICAN PHAROAH will try to win a historically chaotic race that foiled the last 12 Derby-Preakness winners who tried it. A frontrunner/presser, American Pharoah benefitted from the race shape in winning the Derby. Next out in the Preakness, he relished the wet track and romped, another win under advantageous conditions. That is not a knock. Good horses create their own good trips. American Pharoah creates his own good trips.

The challenge for American Pharoah is to maintain form at a 1 1/2-mile distance while making his third start in five weeks and facing fresh rivals who skipped the Preakness. His rivals will attack in waves, and his odds will be low. But make no mistake – regardless of how he fares in the Belmont, American Pharoah is the best 3-year-old in the country. And by all accounts, he continues to look terrific while training. His chances improve if the Belmont track is wet.

MATERIALITY ran well in the Derby despite losing all chance at the break. A frontrunner, he was away slowly. That was the end of that. He rallied from far back, finished sixth, and actually ran superbly. His first three efforts were impressive wins, including a Grade 1. The lightly raced (four starts) colt should keep the favorite company up front.

MUBTAAHIJ is an upset candidate. His eighth-place finish in the Derby, rallying against the race flow, was decent. He cut the corner into the lane, loomed briefly, and faded. It was his first start in North America and his first since a Grade 2 romp in Dubai. Mubtaahij has stayed busy since, working at least six times after the Derby, including five works at Belmont. Reports say he looks good and switched leads in works, which he did not do in his two recent starts.

Keen Ice continues to improve and should love 1 1/2 miles. Frammento and Tale of Verve seem overmatched but will be running late. Madefromlucky should be forwardly placed, pestering the favorite.