Brad Free's 2019 Preakness analysis

BOURBON WAR is positioned for a mild upset over Preakness favorite IMPROBABLE, who benefitted from an uneventful trip in finishing fifth (placed fourth) as the Kentucky Derby favorite. Improbable is good, but he inherits repeat favoritism partly by default. The original top four Derby finishers all skipped the Preakness.

Bourbon War did not run in the Derby. However, his form was validated by third-across-the-wire Code of Honor. Twice this year, Code of Honor finished three-quarters of a length in front of Bourbon War. In the Derby, Code of Honor finished three-quarters and a head in front of Improbable.

By comparison, and risking oversimplification, Bourbon War and Improbable are virtually equal in ability because both finished three-quarters behind Code of Honor. Bourbon War is listed at 12-1, Improbable is 5-2. One overlay, one underlay.

Bourbon War, a late runner, was compromised last out, finishing fourth in the Florida Derby, a slow-paced parade controlled by front-runners. Also, as it turns out, Florida Derby winner Maximum Security is very good. The Preakness pace should be sufficient to flatter the rally of Bourbon War, who adds blinkers.

In the Preakness, Bourbon War will make his first start in seven weeks. The last time he returned from a seven-week layoff, he scored a convincing allowance victory. Bourbon War can post a Preakness upset unless Improbable is simply a better horse. He might be.

Improbable is the most accomplished entrant but is favored following a no-excuse defeat as the Derby favorite. His trainer has won the Preakness seven times, including with beaten Derby favorites Lookin At Lucky and Point Given, who had Derby excuses (post, pace). It is uncertain if Improbable is in their league.

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After the top pair, it gets tricky. The choices to fill out the super are longshot closers who need pace. They might get it. LAUGHING FOX rallied to a highly rated stakes victory last out at Oaklawn Park, OWENDALE won a Grade 3 at Keeneland from far back. The gradually improving SIGNALMAN also will finish.

WAR OF WILL may deserve a higher ranking, though he drew the rail again. His early-season races at Fair Grounds were impressive; he had an excuse (minor injury) in his final prep and ran okay in the Derby. The significance of his “trouble” is a matter of opinion.

WARRIOR’S CHARGE, supplemented for $150,000, got an easy lead and trounced N1X foes at Oaklawn with a big figure. He is fast and likely to set the pace from post 3. Come catch him.

Pace presser ANOTHERTWISTAFATE faces a class challenge. Two starts ago, he missed by a neck to Cutting Humor, who finished 11th in the Derby. ALWAYSMINING has won six straight, including the Federico Tesio. The best Preakness finish by the last 12 Tesio winners was Icabad Crane’s third in 2008.

WIN WIN WIN, BODEXPRESS, MARKET KING, and EVERFAST are in deep.