Brad Free's 2019 Kentucky Derby analysis

Considering favorites won the last six Kentucky Derbies, perhaps the race is due for an upset. That is not likely if Game Winner maintains top form. Indications are the division leader will do more than simply maintain form – he might improve.

Champion juvenile colt of 2018, GAME WINNER’s first career loss was in March, by only a nose, while making his first start in more than four months. He and the winner finished eight lengths clear of third. Game Winner came back three weeks later and ran even better, second with a wide trip in the Santa Anita Derby, his final prep.

He may have lost, but Game Winner ran super in defeat, missing by a half-length at Santa Anita while running 38 feet farther than the winner. Game Winner was the best of his crop last year. One could argue he still is the best, despite two recent runner-up finishes. One was a race he needed, the other was with a wide trip.

The 2019 campaign for Game Winner was focused on one objective – to peak the first Saturday in May. His speed figures are improving, he has a versatile running style, proven class, and a favorable post position. He has trained well this spring over a demanding surface at Santa Anita. It will take a very good colt to defeat Game Winner in the Derby.

SPINOFF, a longshot, improved each successive start, including a highly rated runner-up finish last out in the Louisiana Derby. Yes, the field was modest. However, Spinoff has never taken a backward step and his pressing style should play well if the pace is modest. Spinoff has raced only four times; his best races are still ahead.

MAXIMUM SECURITY, 4 for 4, may not get the same easy lead he did winning the Florida Derby, but he is fast when he needs to be, and will be forwardly placed. The pace scenario of the Derby softened with the late defection of Omaha Beach. Whether he is on the lead or pressing the pace from the outside, Maximum Security will be a forward factor.

CUTTING HUMOR is an under-the-radar longshot whose career got back on track when he won the Sunland Derby by a neck over the very good colt Anothertwistafate. With the victory, Cutting Humor gets a pass on his Southwest Stakes misfire.

Roadster and Improbable, stablemates of Game Winner, are legit. Roadster defeated wide-trip Game Winner last out; Improbable won all three starts last year and has finished second both starts this year.

Tacitus overcame a tough trip to win the Wood last out. Vekoma is a strange-moving colt with a confidence-building win last out in the Blue Grass. The Derby is his third start back. It should be his top effort. By My Standards reportedly has been working very well. Tax is a live longshot that figures for a pressing trip.