Brad Free's 2019 Belmont Stakes analysis

TACITUS enters the Belmont as a total standout. This opinion is hardly unique. The improving colt is likely to start favored following a creditable fourth (placed third) in the Kentucky Derby and subsequent workouts that suggest he is coming up to the best performance of his nascent career.

Tacitus won back-to-back Grade 2s in spring, had an eventful final workout prior to the Derby (two-horse team drill inadvertently became four-horse drill), and finished well in the Derby to miss by slightly more than three lengths. He gave the impression he wanted more ground. He gets it Saturday – 1 1/2 miles.

Tacitus has had five weeks between starts, and trained well in the interim, including a big work last weekend. Preparations have been ideal. He is by Tapit, who sired three of the last five Belmont winners. He is the first foal from Close Hatches, a multiple Grade 1 winner and 2014 champion older female. You could say Tacitus is bred for the Belmont.

From a wagering standpoint, this bettor sees three main options. The first is accept the low odds and bet Tacitus to win. The second is to skip the race because the likely winner’s odds are low. The third option is an exacta that keys Tacitus over a pair of longshots.

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SPINOFF, a 15-1 longshot, enters with the same Derby-to-Belmont pattern that produced four of the last eight Belmont winners. Spinoff struggled with the wet track in the Derby; he should catch dry land Saturday and figures close based on his runner-up finish two starts back in a Grade 2.

INTREPID HEART, a 10-1 longshot, is a Tapit sibling to 2014 Belmont runner-up Commissioner. Intrepid Heart finished third last out in a Grade 2 after stumbling at the start. He is making just his fourth start; his best races are ahead. Intrepid Heart has speed to be forwardly placed in a race that could unfold at a tepid clip. Spinoff and Intrepid Heart are the longshots to use underneath the favorite.

WAR OF WILL lost the Derby with a tough trip, then won the Preakness with a perfect trip. This is his third start in five weeks. Questions facing War of Will – will he get the same type trip that helped produce his Preakness upset, and can he maintain top form during this enterprising campaign? This handicapper underestimated War of Will in the Preakness. Must admit, that might be the case again in the Belmont.

Bourbon War was this handicapper’s selection in the Preakness; he finished eighth. Everfast, the Preakness runner-up, will rally late. Master Fencer finished well for seventh in the Derby. He has the Derby-to-Belmont pattern. Joevia will set the pace. Tax reportedly has not trained great. Sir Winston has the highest last-start figure.