Brad Free: Uncovering some overlays in Gander, Sweet Life

The stakes schedule is light on Sundays, allowing weekend bettors to start fresh after a Saturday of tough beats or wagering genius. Either way, the morning after often brings clarity.

While hindsight is 20-20, “past-posting” one’s handicapping and betting strategy can be both entertaining and productive. Sometimes, a little self-loathing is a good thing.

Bettors must learn from mistakes, and we make plenty – erroneous pace analysis, misinterpretation of a speed figure, or overemphasis of a troubled trip.

Sometimes you suspect you might be committing a blunder, but are not sure. An example occurred in race 4 on Saturday, Feb. 13, at Santa Anita, a turf sprint in which Highly Distorted figured to be loose on the lead. Trouble is, speed has been a liability at 6 1/2 furlongs on turf. Deep closers rule.

The anti-speed profile suggested Highly Distorted was a stone bet-against at 2-1, which defies the concept of lone speed, supposedly one of the best bets in racing.

It could have been right; it could have been wrong. But at least the closers-friendly profile provided rationale for going against Highly Distorted. It turned out to be the right move. Highly Distorted set the pace and finished at the back of the field.

What I am sure of is that logic is required to generate a worthwhile opinion, even ideas that seem counterintuitive. That is what this column is about – the application of handicapping fundamentals from Daily Racing Form past performances, news coverage, analyses, and products including DRF Formulator.

A pair of Sunday stakes offer overlay possibilities. The $100,000 Gander for New York-bred 3-year-olds is race 8 at Aqueduct; the $100,000 Sweet Life, for 3-year-old turf-sprint fillies, is race 7 at Santa Anita. Let’s take a look.

Gander

(DRF Formulator past performances for Sunday's Gander Stakes can be viewed for free as DRF's Race of the Day. Click here.)

Speed figures influence odds more than any single factor, which is why Nicky the Vest (83 Beyer Speed Figure) and Perfect Munnings (81) will be strongly backed.

Nicky the Vest was visually impressive first out; the replay can be viewed on Formulator (click on comment line link). He broke last from the rail, zoomed to the lead, and crushed. Who did he beat? It turns out, not much.

The runner-up and third-place finisher returned to finish second against maidens; five others ran back without hitting the board. Yes, Nicky the Vest looked good, but against a soft field. Formulator allows one to view the competition’s subsequent starts (click the Date/Track field to pull up race charts).

Perfect Munnings has won both his starts, including a stakes at 6 1/2 furlongs. But watch his replay, and see if you agree the win by Perfect Munnings was only okay. He benefited from a perfect trip, third on the outside. His rally was more grinding than explosive.

If the favorites are modest, then higher-odds alternatives command attention. Four of the last five Gander Stakes winners previously earned a Beyer of 71 or higher. Based on the limited sample, Dancing Buck (73), Lobsta (71), and Uno (76) qualify on speed.

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Dancing Buck, in his second start, won a maiden race over three next-out winners. He has tactical speed and already defeated Lobsta. However, when Lobsta ran back, he did what many second-start maidens do – he improved a ton.

Lobsta crushed by more than five. Fast works since suggest he continues to improve. The knock? Four he defeated ran back, producing one second and one third. As for Uno, he finished well sprinting last out, and galloped out like he wants the mile distance.

Dancing Buck and Uno merit respect at prices, but the improving Lobsta is the gamble. Recent works suggest we have not seen his best. Trainer Gary Sciacca and jockey Eric Cancel upset the Gander last year with unheralded 15-1 shot Chowda, who happens to be a full sibling to Lobsta (view the sibling report by clicking on the dam in the past performances). Two in a row to keep it all in the family?

Sweet Life

Santa Anita installed a new turf chute this year. And while 6 1/2-furlong races typically are won by closers, six-furlong turf races such as the Sweet Life play fair, with a lean toward speed.

With the rails at Sunday’s 10-foot setting, 5 of 8 races were won by a horse positioned one-two. It is a small sample. But a second trend supports backing a Sweet Life front-runner.

The stakes has been dominated by front-runners for a decade. Eight of the 10 turf sprints were won by a horse positioned one-two, another from third. Most of those races were on the hill, yet the hill typically played fair. Is there something about 3-year-old fillies in winter that makes speed more important in turf sprints? Seems odd.

The speed in the Sweet Life includes allowance winner Five Pics Please and maiden winner Freedom Flyer.

But the play is Euro import Royal Address, auction purchase last year for a reported $232,468. The 3-for-6 stakes winner employs an up-front running style.

Royal Address’s dirt works are fast; trainer Neil Drysdale is 3 for 22 with imports over five years. Assuming odds 5-1 or higher, the only three-time winner is worth backing.

She is Royal Address, spotted for an upset.

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