Brad Free: Saturday pick six offers challenge, big mandatory jackpot

ARCADIA, Calif. – Pick six bettors will look for a sweet spot between two extremes Saturday at Santa Anita – a play that is more expensive than a 20-cent ticket with six singles, and less expensive than a $165,888 ticket with “all” every race.

Saturday is a mandatory payout, the jackpot to start the week was $843,236. Barring a unique-ticket winner on Friday, the total pool Saturday should be in the $5 million range. The 20-cent pick six wager covers races 5-10, post time for the first leg is 2 p.m.

Although low minimums seduce bettors to “spread” rather than build a ticket based on sensible handicapping, the pick six races outlined here will assume that reasonable bettors still prefer to base most wagering decisions on logic, rather than bankroll.

Race 5

Small-size tickets might be tempted to single No. 3 Allergic to Logic in this California-bred maiden-claiming sprint, based on her better-than-looked debut. Allergic to Logic showed speed in workouts, but she was not quick from the gate in her race.

She produced a middle move to reach contention, then got bogged behind runners on the turn where she waited, and waited. She finally got clear near the quarter pole, finished willingly, and galloped out super after the finish.

She gets another half-furlong Saturday, to 6 1/2, at the same level. Trainer Brian Koriner has won with 6 of 20 second-start maiden-claiming runners the past five years. Flavien Prat is back aboard. Allergic to Logic is an “A” contender.

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“B” contenders include high-figure entrant No. 1 Smoothlikebuttah, dropping to maiden-50 for the first time in her ninth career start. No. 4 Medusa’s Gaze has improved each start, runner-up last out. No. 5 Race Judicata drops from special-weight to maiden-claiming, turf to dirt. The past five years, trainer Phil D’Amato is 10 for 38 with the dual maneuver.

Race 6

This entry-level allowance turf route includes everyone’s single. No. 6 Whisper Not figures to be heavily favored stretching to 1 1/8 miles. If he reproduces either of his last two starts, allowance runner-up and Grade 2 third, he should win at a short price.

Whisper Not won twice in England at 1 1/4 miles, so distance is fine. Also, trainer Richard Baltas is highly reliable with turf favorites at nine to 10 furlongs – 13 for his last 21. Therefore, Whisper Not is fastest in the field, with a trainer who excels with distance turf horses that “figure.” Whisper Not is the most probable winner on the card.

“B” contenders include underachiever No. 5 Three Ay Em, beaten favorite three straight but fast enough to at least consider; shipper No. 7 Gauguin, who is 1 for 27 with eight seconds and nine thirds. The 1 1/8 miles hits him just right. No. 4 Offshore Affair won two straight versus lesser; No. 10 Club Aspen stretches out from a better-than-looked sprint try.

Race 7

Some might argue that No. 6 Concert Tour is the most probable winner Saturday, stepping up to the Grade 2 San Vicente off a smashing career debut. He popped the gate, set the pace without being asked, and cruised with an 88 Beyer Speed Figure and plenty in the tank.

Concert Tour is drawn outside in this seven-furlong sprint, where he can set or press the pace. He is the fastest on numbers, trained by Bob Baffert, and a potential single.

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“B” contenders include California-bred debut winner No. 2 The Chosen Vron, who scratched from a California-bred stakes two weeks ago after getting sick. Trainer Eric Kruljac said this week that The Chosen Vron is fitter now than coming into his 86-Beyer debut romp. No. 1 Freedom Fighter is the second Baffert trainee, working fast for his comeback, but compromised by his rail draw.

Race 8

The mile turf division in California is weak, one could make a case for more than half the field in the Grade 3 Thunder Road. No. 1 Sombeyay benefited from an easy pace in his comeback win and could get the same scenario; No. 4 Border Town has improved since he was gelded and moves up from a solid second-level allowance win.

No. 2 Hit the Road runs well fresh, No. 3 Restrainedvengence is fast enough on numbers; No. 7 Bob and Jackie figures for a pressing trip in a race likely to unfold at a soft pace. That is five “A’s.” The two “B’s” are comebacker No. 5 Campaign and No. 6 Award Winner.

Race 9

The final two races are low-level sprints that will give bettors reason to pause. This dirt sprint is $16K claiming, nonwinners-of-two lifetime, the lowest class for winners at Santa Anita. The “A” contenders include turf-to-dirt dropper No. 3 Dreamer’s Reality, route-to-sprint No. 6 Zorich, No. 9 Squalotoro, and No. 2 Turntheclocktozero. “B” contenders? As many as affordable.

Race 10

Maiden-claiming sprinters on turf is a discouraging race on which to end the pick six. The “A” contenders include droppers No. 10 Lunatic, No. 2 Aadhana, No. 8 Agreetodisagree, and No. 11 Ragged Rose. And just like the previous race, “B” contenders include many.