Brad Free: Baffert first-timer provides single in mandatory pick six

For most bettors, the only time it makes sense to play a jackpot-style pick six is on a mandatory payout day such as Sunday at Santa Anita. Barring an unlikely single-ticket winner Friday or Saturday, a million-dollar jackpot will be up for grabs.

Bettors are expected to wager at least $5 million into the pick six, a 20-cent wager on races 7-12 that includes two stakes – the $150,000 Melair and Grade 3 American. On closing-day Sunday, the pick six previewed below is worth a shot.

Race 7

No need to be creative in the opening leg, the favorites stand out – likely pacesetter Big Sweep and late-runner Smiling Shirlee. Both stretch to 1 1/16 miles off sprint wins, and if history repeats, the $150,000 Melair will be won by chalk. Favorites have won seven of the last nine editions.

Big Sweep, 2 for 2 in sprints, could be loose on the lead. The dilemma is two turns. Her dam was a sprinter. Smiling Shirlee, meanwhile, won an allowance route two back. Big Sweep or Smiling Shirlee should win as “A” preferences, while the most accomplished entrant is relegated to backup status as a “B.” Warren’s Showtime prefers grass and will use this dirt race as a bridge toward a Grade 2 turf race at Del Mar.

A’s: Big Sweep (1), Smiling Shirlee (2). B: Warren’s Showtime (6).

:: Click to learn about our DRF's Free Past Performance program.

Race 8

Here’s where the sequence gets tricky – a mishmash cast of $40,000 maiden-claiming fillies and mares race a mile on turf. Danceformunny drops from a special weight for the productive trainer-jockey combo of Richard Baltas and Flavien Prat. They have won with 5 of their last 8, and 7 of their last 12 on turf.

However, Danceformunny is no cinch from post 10, particularly in a race with a murky pace scenario. Sapori Girl is a 10-start maiden with ability; I Give Up ran better than the line looks last out; the same applies to Hola Chica. One other is a backup.

A’s I Give Up (1), Hola Chica (8), Danceformunny (10), Sapori Girl (11). B: Wine At Sunset (3).

Race 9

Apache Pass is better than either start last year. At least, she trains like it. A comebacker in a $50,000 maiden-claiming sprint, Apache Pass reportedly has more speed than shown, and except for the fact she scratched twice recently, one could argue she is the horse to beat. Trainer Mark Glatt won with 3 of his last 7 comebackers off six months or more.

Eight-start maiden Saving Sophie is rounding into form and dropping in for tag. She has no early speed, but that is okay at 6 1/2 furlongs. Since racing resumed last month, more than half the winners at this distance rallied from the middle or back. Cosmic Cowgirl goes route to sprint and drops. True Mischief returns for a tag.

A’s: Apache Pass (5), Saving Sophie (6). B’s: Cosmic Cowgirl (1), True Mischief (2).

Race 10

River Boyne would have been a cinch single in the Grade 3 American, but he retired this week with a sesamoid injury. The remaining entrants in this turf mile face questions.

Sharp Samurai, a Grade 2 winner, is good enough, but he has not raced since August. Border Town is a mere entry-level allowance winner, yet his pedigree and 22.44-second final quarter last out suggest he belongs. Trainer Richard Mandella has raved about Border Town, a War Front sibling to Hit It a Bomb, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

Cleopatra’s Strike would prefer a longer distance, but he will finish. Bowies Hero usually needs a prep race, but the comebacker is a two-time Grade 1 winner. Bolo’s form is dubious, but he could be loose. Those three are backups.

A’s: Sharp Samurai (5), Border Town (7). B’s Cleopatra’s Strike (3), Bowies Hero (8), Bolo (10).

Race 11

First-time starter Provocation should be tough in this sprint for maiden fillies. Trained by Bob Baffert, the Into Mischief filly debuts with a series of team works and is so well-regarded she was nominated to the $75,000 Angel’s Flight Stakes last weekend. This maiden race makes more sense. Baffert also entered second-time starter Himiko, but to keep the wager affordable, Provocation is a no-backup single.

A: Provocation (2).

Race 12

This entry-level allowance turf mile could go a number of ways. Of Good Report finished second last out, Succeedandsurpass fits perfect based on his 2019 form, Turn the Switch ran better than looked last out. The only backup is stretch-out Galloping Mischief.

A’s: Of Good Report (3), Turn the Switch (10), Succeedandsurpass (12). B: Galloping Mischief (11).

By employing the Daily Racing Form TicketMaker strategy, a pick six wager with all A’s combined with tickets that include five A’s and one B would cost $88.