Brad Free: Analyzing Del Mar's $785k pick five carryover for Sunday, Aug. 19, 2018

DEL MAR, Calif. – Are you betting the pick five Sunday at Del Mar? Of course you are. A record carryover of $785,777 is up for grabs; new money into the Sunday pool could top $4 million. The pick five minimum is 50 cents, below is a closer look at the sequence.

Race 1

A scarcity of pace in this $32,000 claiming dirt mile benefits favorite Avanti Bello (5), who could be loose on the lead while moving up one level off a win. Pacesetters won two of the last five dirt miles. Pick five bettors playing on a budget might consider Avanti Bello a sink-or-swim single in the opening leg.

If the favorite misfires, it’s anyone’s race. Mercer Island (4) has speed for a comfortable position sitting second, he would get first run. Point Piper (6) is a back-class veteran, although he is winless since the Grade 3 Longacres Mile in summer 2016.

Ground Rules (3) merits a look based on trainer John Martin’s 34 percent first-off-the-claim record. However, his 1:04.80 workout Aug. 11 was a virtual disaster according to Daily Racing Form workout analyst Toby Turrell, who wrote this in the Del Mar Clocker Report: “Not sure what happened here, but gelding threw his head up and basically quit in this five panels off the claim. Rating: C”

Race 2

The presence of four front-runners in this $40,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-olds seemingly sets it up for route-to-sprint closer Heartfullofstars (1). The problem is, closers have not won their fair share of six-furlong sprints recently. Including four more front-running/pace-pressing winners on Saturday, 12 of the most recent 13 six-furlong winners were positioned 1-2-3 early.

The short-term speed-friendly profile might be sufficient reason to “spread” this race in the pick five. Candy Crew (2) is the speed of the speed, up in class following a highly rated win three weeks ago. Treasure Hunter (3), Royal Creed (4) and Hoss Cartwright (5) add more heat. In addition to the favorite, two other closers are Neighborhood Bully (6) and Gray Gem (7). Perhaps this is a spot for a pick five bettor to use “all.”

Race 3

A pick five bettor might survive with just two runners in this turf mile for fillies and mares, non-winners of two other than. Quebec (6) is favored based on her runner-up finish three weeks ago in a similar spot. Helen Hillary (1) ran the fastest race of her career winning a N1X last out, and had had two months to recover. She has trained well and expected to fire first start back.

The unknown factor is Dominating Woman (3), making her first start of the year as the likely pacesetter. She is 2 for 2 running long on turf, and though comeback turf routers is not a high-percent move from this stable, the filly is a win machine having won 3 of 5. The inclusion of Dominating Woman would increase the ticket cost by 50 percent.

Race 4

Top choice Surfing Star (2) and The Street Fighter (6) have been working in company, posting the same times, for respective comebacks in this Cal-bred N1X sprint. Surfing Star has more speed, and it helps that the distance is the speed-friendly six furlongs.

Bruce Headley trains both runners, perhaps a pick five ticket should include both – Surfing Star on the lead, and The Street Fighter rallying from behind. King Abner (4) returns to his preferred footing, dirt, and he figures to be close to the front.

Three deep could get it done.

Race 5

A turf sprint scramble for maiden fillies and mares ends the sequence. Program favorite Tantara (12) will try to become the first to win a turf sprint from post 12 since Del Mar reconfigured its turf course four years ago (post 12 at five furlongs on turf is 0 for 8).

What is to like about first-time starter Tantara? Other than post, plenty. Trainer John Sadler can fire with first-timers, the filly’s sire Point of Entry gets an above-average 16 percent winners first out, and Tantara is a sibling to Langham, a maiden who did not pan out for the stable but who was always held in high regard by Sadler and Hronis Racing.

Of course, it is unreasonable to “single” a horse breaking from the far outside in a Del Mar turf sprint, so who else to include? First-time starters Midnight in Dixie (7) and She Be Striking (8) received high marks in the DRF Del Mar Clocker Report, while Colonel Power (6) is an in-form dirt filly with speed. No reason she would not like turf.

Is four deep enough? It will have to be.

Below is an $84 pick five play, keyed to the favorite in the opener.

Race 1: Avanti Bello (5)

Race 2: “All” (1-7)

Race 3: Helen Hillary (1), Quebec (6)

Race 4: Surfing Star (2), King Abner (4), The Street Fighter (6)

Race 5: Colonel Power (6), Midnight in Dixie (7), She Be Striking (8), Tantara (12)