Brad Free: 2018 Preakness analysis

Some favorites are vulnerable, others are solid. The latter group includes the undefeated JUSTIFY, who answered every question in the Kentucky Derby and looks tough to beat at low odds in the Preakness. Justify won the Derby legitimately; he pushed a fast pace and won clear. He could have an easier trip in a Preakness field with less speed. If the race unfolds as expected, Justify can be loose on the lead or press modest fractions.

But for a minor foot issue following the Derby that cleared quickly, Justify enters without a hiccup for trainer Bob Baffert, whose Preakness record with Derby winners is 4 for 4. The best horse, with a versatile style, proven over fast and wet, Justify should win again. So, is he a cinch? There is no such thing. Preakness odds-on favorites are 4 for 8 since 2000 (wins by American Pharoah, California Chrome, Big Brown, and Smarty Jones; losses by Nyquist, Orb, Barbaro, and Fusaichi Pegasus.)

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GOOD MAGIC was this handicapper’s Derby selection. He ran well to finish second at 9-1, but he was no match for the winner. Seems like more of the same this time, although a lot can happen. They still have to run the race. Good Magic runs his race every time. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner in 2017, each 2018 start was better than the start before. It is not typical for trainer Chad Brown to run a horse back in two weeks; Good Magic clearly exited the Derby in top shape. If both Preakness favorites fire, the exacta payoff will be short – Justify up front, and Good Magic chasing him home.

BRAVAZO, a Grade 2 winner in February, ran well in finishing sixth in the Derby. Though wide, he avoided trouble, racing in the clear. It was an improved try after a misfire in his previous start. Bravazo is on the upswing; he is not impossible to hit the board at a big price.

SPORTING CHANCE, a Grade 1 winner as a juvenile and Grade 2-placed this spring, seems to be in tough. However, he was compromised by trouble and a wide trip while finishing fourth last out against easier; two previous starts give him a longshot chance to hit the board.

Lone Sailor, eighth in the Derby, will rally from the clouds. Quip has some speed, but it is unclear how much speed he will use. Quip and front-running favorite Justify share common ownership. Tenfold is lightly raced (2 for 3); he split the field in his only start against top company. Diamond King would be a shocker.

Value is elusive behind the legit favorites, unless one of the favorites misfires. If so, the exacta could be okay. For the sake of action, a value-seeking exacta key will account for the possibility of a misfire. The play: Justify and Good Magic over Bravazo, Sporting Chance, and Lone Sailor; press Justify over Bravazo, Sporting Chance, and Lone Sailor.

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