Brad Free: 2018 Kentucky Derby analysis
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLEGOOD MAGIC enters Kentucky Derby 2018 without a flaw. He has established class, upward figures, versatile running style, and reportedly is training super in Kentucky. He was one of the country’s top 2-year-olds last year when he crushed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his third start. The Derby, likewise, is the third start of his campaign, and it follows a confidence-building victory in the Blue Grass. Good Magic has a solid racing foundation, and his versatile style increases the chances of a clean trip.
MENDELSSOHN was freaky in Dubai – he rode a speed bias to an 18-plus-length romp in the UAE Derby in his first start on dirt. Conditions were ideal and the field modest (runner-up Rayya runs in the Kentucky Oaks), but Mendelssohn is no fluke. His Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf win was legit; the race produced 10 subsequent stakes winners. Mendelssohn is a sibling to Beholder and Into Mischief. Although not a single one of the 13 previous Dubai-to-Kentucky starters hit the board, Mendelssohn is the best to try. He should get a forwardly placed trip.
VINO ROSSO is a threat from the back of the pack. He took a while to come around this year. His alibi is he made three starts on a Tampa Bay surface he reportedly did not care for. When he raced last month at Aqueduct, he uncorked the race of his career to win the Wood Memorial going away. He enters on a conspicuous upward pattern. If the pacesetters come back, Vino Rosso is a serious threat from off the pace.
JUSTIFY is extremely talented, yet short on seasoning. Also, he won the Santa Anita Derby setting a slow pace. That trip is not likely to be duplicated in the Kentucky Derby. On the other hand, the 3-for-3 colt is consistently fast (100-plus Beyers each start), and his trainer annually rewrites records (Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, $17 million earner Arrogate). Justify enters the Derby with a victory list the same as undefeated 2008 Derby winner Big Brown – maiden special weight, first-level allowance, Grade 1 stakes. The difference is that unlike Big Brown, Justify did not race as a 2-year-old. He is being asked to do a lot, but he might be up to the challenge at underlay odds.
Bolt d’Oro, last year one of the country’s top 2-year-olds, is rounding up to the best race of his campaign in the third start of his campaign. It is the same as last year, when his best race was his third start. Front-runner Promises Fulfilled will lead as far as he can. Could he shake loose? Probably not, but his odds are high. Combatant will rally late at a price. He is a must-use underneath. Magnum Moon and Audible are legit. Solomini seems to be gradually figuring things out. Hofburg will finish.