In addition to being fast and undefeated, JUSTIFY benefits from an ideal pace scenario in his quest for the Triple Crown. The pace-pressing/front-running winner of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, Justify could be loose on the lead in the Belmont Stakes. Despite an ambitious spring campaign, Justify has thrived. He has maintained his weight, worked super since the Preakness, and enters the 1 1/2-mile Belmont in peak form. According to trainer Bob Baffert and exercise rider Martin Garcia, Justify looks better physically than before the Derby or Preakness. The 97 Beyer Speed Figure he earned last out – after putting away a pesky pace rival – is a higher figure than eight of the last 10 Belmont winners earned in their final start prior to the Belmont. Assuming that Justify and jockey Mike Smith break well from the rail and the race unfolds without incident, Justify should control the pace. The 2018 Belmont could be a carbon copy of 2015, won wire to wire by Baffert-trained Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. :: Get Clocker Reports, PPs, news, analysis, and more for the 2018 Belmont Stakes So, is Justify a cinch? No such thing. Favorites have won just one of the last 12 Belmont Stakes, and the median $2 payoff in that span was more than $20. Gobbledygook. The truth is that Justify should be long gone. The longshot BLENDED CITIZEN enters on an upward pattern. His career-best race was his most recent, a victory in the Grade 2 Peter Pan in his first start at Belmont. He is the only entrant with a race over the track. Sibling to 2017 Kentucky Derby runner-up Lookin At Lee, Blended Citizen should handle 1 1/2 miles. Young jockey Kyle Frey is seeking his first Grade 1 win, and trainer Doug O’Neill is on a roll. His win rate since early April is 25 percent. Blended Citizen is a live longshot to hit the board. The improving TENFOLD, third in the Preakness, could get a cozy trip in the second flight within striking range of Justify. Each start by Tenfold has been better than the start before; the best is still ahead for the four-start son of Curlin. Tenfold finished less than a length behind Justify last out. The enigmatic VINO ROSSO had a wide trip finishing ninth in the Kentucky Derby. He previously won the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, and that followed a fourth in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. The point is, Vino Rosso has a history of rebounding from subpar efforts. Four of the last six Belmont winners and nine of the last 18 were exiting the Derby. Noble Indy figures as an in-the-money contender with a forwardly placed trip if his Derby debacle can be discounted. Hofburg and Bravazo will rally at underlay odds. Restoring Hope, Free Drop Billy, and Gronkowski are up against it. This bettor’s strategy will insist Justify wins and Blended Citizen hits the board. The plays: one-way exacta Justify over Blended Citizen, and a trifecta that keys Justify to win with Tenfold, Vino Rosso, and Noble Indy in second with Blended Citizen in third.