Big fields for Saturday's twin turf stakes

In the Woodchopper and Pago Hop stakes Saturday at Fair Grounds, the task of picking a winner takes a backseat to more fundamental questions. On which surface will the races be run? And what will the fields look like after scratches?

These races, at about a mile on turf, the Pago Hop restricted to fillies, offer horsemen one last end-of-the-year spot in which 3-year-olds don’t have to face older horses. The Woodchopper, which drew 10 entrants, is carded as race 5 (post time 3:21 p.m. Central), while the 13-entrant Pago Hop goes as race 7 at 4:19.

After rain Tuesday in New Orleans, showers popped back into the forecast for Friday and are likely Saturday. In past seasons, that forecast would strongly suggest an off-the-turf day, but Fair Grounds, which upgraded the grass-course drainage system before this meet, left races on turf last Saturday after about a half-inch of rain, and the course performed admirably.

There are entrants in both stakes whose connections are hoping for a surface switch, and in many cases, these are entrants with pace who are highly relevant to the race shape. The best plan is to gain a working familiarity with the fields and adjust Saturday after seeing course conditions and scratches.

Woodchopper (Race 5)

KEY CONTENDERS

Highball (Last 3 Beyers: 89-85-85)

◗ Clearly the horse to beat on turf, with third-, fourth-, and fifth-place finishes in graded grass stakes during 2014.

◗ Has no early pace and must hope for legitimate fractions. If all the speed horses entered actually run, that should not be a problem.

◗ Wayne Catalano still seeks his first win at this Fair Grounds meet and has been blanked in recent seasons in these 3-year-old turf stakes, though Marine Patrol finished second in the 2013 Woodchopper.

◗ FORMULATOR FACT: Catalano in 3-year-old non-graded turf-route stakes over the last five years is just 30-3-3-2, with a $0.81 return on investment.

Rise Up (Last 3 Beyers: 88-73-73)

◗ Hard to like on grass, where he was eighth in his only start, but a key player if the race is moved to one mile on dirt. The race would then finish at the sixteenth pole, and Rise Up, who has distance limitations, would benefit accordingly.

◗ FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Tom Amoss in off-the-turf races over the last five years at Fair Grounds is 31 percent wins, with a $1.75 ROI, from 101 starters.

Aztec Brave (Last 3 Beyers: 89-55-69)

◗ A convincing winner over older horses in a first-level turf allowance last month, a career-best performance following a claim by trainer Joe Sharp.

◗ FORMULATOR FACT: Sharp, a first-year trainer, has a sparkling record of 22-8-7-2 and a $2.01 ROI on grass.

:: DRF Live: Get real-time updates and insights from DRF reporters and handicappers on Saturday

PAGO HOP (Race 7)

KEY CONTENDERS

Divine Beauty (Last 3 Beyers: 82-84-90)

◗ Easily won a dirt-sprint allowance race at Fair Grounds on Nov. 30 in her second start back from an extended layoff.

◗ Making her turf debut and has grass in her pedigree. Her dam, Ghazo, has produced several turf-leaning offspring, including the stakes-winning Yankee Master.

◗ FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Larry Jones with first-turf runners over the last five years is just 30-3-1-7, with a $1.21 ROI.

Kiss to Remember (Last 3 Beyers: 87-85-75)

◗ Handles turf and dirt, sprints and short routes, and is capable of winning on either surface. What’s somewhat confusing is that she’s a front-running type, as is trainer Amoss’s other entrant, In My Time.

◗ Good company lines lately. The filly who beat her last out at Delta Downs, Yahilwa, was a fairly close fourth in a Grade 1 on dirt in September, and the filly right behind her, Eden Prairie, won an overnight stakes last week at Fair Grounds. Kiss Moon, who edged her in a turf stakes at Indiana Grand, returned to finish third in the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere at Churchill, and Miss Behaviour, the only filly in front of her in the Charles Town Oaks, was second in the Grade 1 Test.

More Than Less (Last 3 Beyers: 79-80-67)

◗ Second last out at Kentucky Downs to In My Time but probably raced closer to the pace than she prefers in that start. If all the speed entered shows, she could get an ideal setup, and her closing run in a third-place finish at Saratoga suggests she’s good enough to take advantage.