Big Cap: Maxfield must overcome distance, weight, and surface

ARCADIA, Calif. – Even before Maxfield arrived in California for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap on Saturday, the colt’s reputation was soaring faster than Bitcoin.

Considering that Maxfield’s winter campaign at Fair Grounds consisted of just two wins in minor stakes, pre-race accolades for the likely Big Cap favorite seem exaggerated. But momentum is a powerful force, particularly accompanied by a catchy narrative.

So, while skeptical handicappers question the significance of Maxfield’s recent Grade 3 and ungraded wins, and deem him underqualified for Big Cap favoritism against Express Train and Independence Hall, other bettors will fall right in line. Because this – Maxfield is an undefeated Grade 1 winner.

Maybe the 5-for-5 colt will win the mile and a quarter Big Cap, but it will not be easy. He faces better company, on unfamiliar footing, at a distance beyond any he has attempted, carrying 124-pound top weight.

Eight entered the $400,000 Big Cap, race 10 on a program spiced by a mandatory pick-six payout. The jackpot into Friday was more than a half-million. Assuming no single-ticket winner Friday, the pick-six pool Saturday will be in the millions. The sequence covers races 6 to 11, and includes four graded stakes.

:: Get Brad Free’s Betting Strategies for Saturday’s card at Santa Anita

Race 6 is the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes with Derby prospect Life Is Good. Race 8 is the San Carlos Stakes, a seven-furlong sprint for older that is an ideal distance for Tigre di Slugo but uncertain for speedball Brickyard Ride. Race 9 is the Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile for older on turf, led by dazzling comeback winner Hit the Road.

The Big Cap is race 10, and Maxfield’s rivals include Express Train, Independence Hall, Idol, and Kiss Today Goodbye. The longshots are potential pacesetter Tizamagician, Coastal Defense, and King Guillermo.

The trip to Santa Anita is the second for Maxfield, among the favorites in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after winning a maiden race and Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity. Maxfield was scratched from the Breeders’ Cup with an ankle chip, won a Grade 3 in his May comeback, sustained a condylar injury, and was sidelined a second time.

“Here we are, we’re back again,” trainer Brendan Walsh said this week at Santa Anita. He returned with a 4-year-old who is bigger and stronger than the 2-year-old version of Maxfield.

“He was only a shell of a horse, really, as a 2-year-old. He always had the scope to grow up and strengthen up and turn into the horse he is now,” Walsh said. “He’s turned into a big, good-looking horse.”

Maxfield is good, but is he good enough to win the Big Cap? He has never raced beyond a mile and a sixteenth, though Walsh is confident he will handle a mile and one-quarter.

Florent Geroux rides the versatile Maxfield, whose two victories this winter came at the expense of unheralded Sonneman. It gets tougher in the Big Cap, led by the resurgent Express Train.

John Shirreffs trains Express Train, who, like Maxfield, was a BC Juvenile candidate in 2019 after winning a maiden route by more than 14 lengths. But he misfired next out, and disappeared until summer 2020.

“We had a lot of little problems with him early on; we were stop and go quite a bit,” Shirreffs said. “Now he’s a little bit more mature, his legs are a little bit stronger, and he’s been on a regular schedule now with races that aren’t too far apart.”

Express Train finished second to Charlatan in the Grade 1 Malibu at seven furlongs on Dec. 26, then stretched out and won the Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes by more than three lengths. Express Train is better than ever.

“He’s still the same horse – high strung, aggressive. He’s remained the same that way, but now he’s stronger and able to handle the workload a lot better,” Shirreffs said.

Juan Hernandez rides at 123 pounds.

Idol was compromised by premature moves in both starts this winter, a second and a third in Grade 2’s. Trainer Richard Baltas expects improvement switching to Joel Rosario.

“There are three things in his advantage – the distance, the rider, and the weight. He wants a mile and a quarter, I got Joel, and I’m getting weight.”

Idol, by Curlin, carries 119 pounds.

Independence Hall followed his fifth in the seven-furlong Malibu with a perfect-trip third in the Pegasus at Gulfstream. But his misfire in his one start at Santa Anita creates uncertainty. Does he like the surface?

“My first inclination was maybe he didn’t like this sort of a racetrack,” trainer Michael McCarthy said, referring to the seven-furlong Malibu. “Or maybe he didn’t like being rushed off his feet.”

Independence Hall and Flavien Prat figure for an up-front trip in a race likely to unfold at a modest tempo. His running style suits the pace complexion.

Kiss Today Goodbye won the Grade 2 San Antonio, then misfired in the Pegasus. “Mike [Smith] said warming up he knew he wasn’t going to do anything,” trainer Eric Kruljac said. “He just didn’t get a hold of that track. He’s back on a track he likes, and the extra distance looks like it’s in his wheelhouse.”

Kruljac recognizes the pace challenge: “As races get longer and longer, if you have his running style, you don’t get the benefit of a real hot pace. When you’re a deep closer, you need a good pace to have your best opportunity.”

Tizamagician is likely to set the pace, although his uninspiring seven-furlong workout Feb. 26 casts uncertainty on his ability at 1 1/4 miles. Coastal Defense is unplaced in three graded stakes. King Guillermo has trained better since his last-place finish in his California debut.