Beyer Figure for Jack Christopher raised to 102

When the 2-year-old Jack Christopher won the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park, running one mile in 1:37.31, he stamped himself as one of the top colts of his age group. The effort earned him a Beyer Speed Figure of 93.

However, this first impression may have been incorrect, because crucial information about the race may have been wrong. The posted final time of the Champagne was evidently an error. After exhaustive efforts to clock the video of the race, the Beyer Speed Figure team credits Jack Christopher with a final time of 1:36.48, which translates into a figure of 102.

The official charts of Belmont races have acknowledged numerous timing errors since the track’s fall meeting opened in mid-September. In the first three days of October, footnotes of the charts cite eight races where the timing was incomplete. (In most cases, certain fractional times were missing. In one, the timer failed entirely and no times were published.)

Craig Milkowski of TimeformUS has been an industry watchdog on timing, and he was the first to suspect that something was wrong in the Champagne. Randy Moss of the Beyer team uses sophisticated video-editing software to time races from video replays, and he regularly reviews races where the data is either questionable or entirely missing.

The procedure involves some difficulties. Timing a race requires a clear view of the starting gate and starting line, but anyone watching a mile race at Belmont must observe the start from the opposite side of the track, looking at a sharp angle. So there is a margin of error in video-timing, but Moss said that margin is small in this case. Of his 1:36.48 final time and the resultant figure, he said, “I am confident within one Beyer point, plus or minus.”

Milkowski took a similar view. He acknowledges the difficulties in analyzing a Belmont one-mile race, and said, “The one thing I am confident in is that the [published] time is wrong.”

Some people in the sport may not appreciate the significance of a mere 0.83 of a second. But it is a meaningful number in speed figures that attempt to define a Thoroughbred’s talent. If Jack Christopher ran a mile in 1:36.48 and earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 102, this was the best performance by any 2-year-old since 2017. It would be good enough to win any running of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile during that period. It suggests that Jack Christopher is an exceptional talent and the outstanding member of his 2-year-old generation.