Betfair Hollywood: DRF Plus handicapping report for November 30, 2013

Race 1

Vulnerable Favorite

The most “probable winner” is vulnerable. DESIGNER (#1, 2-1) has not raced in 18 months, never started on synthetic, and unproven beyond six furlongs. He will be an underlay. -Brad Free

Closer Looks >>

Race 2

Generous Stakes

As the old axiom goes, ‘Speed kills’. Well, you may get another example of that in its racing context here as PABLO DEL MONTE not only appears to have considerable talent, but his considerable speed may translate to him dictating things from the bell here and playing keep-away all the way around in this mile turf race.

His first two starts, both sprints on Keeneland’s Polytrack, were splendid – a 5-length debut romp April 7 and then a 7 1/2-length laughter over N1X foes there Oct. 13. Obviously the layoff wasn’t an issue, and neither was facing winners for the first time. There’s another layoff here, albeit much shorter. There are, however, some significant new hurdles – it’s first time turf, first time routing, he’s up in class and he had to ship across the country for the privilege.

However, the colt is bred to love this game. Daddy, Giant’s Causeway, was a European monster, a six-time Group 1 winner on grass, and he certainly throws grass runners. Mom, One Hot Wish, wasn’t as distinguished but she won on grass nonetheless, so this game is in his blood.

It’s first time routing, yes, but we’re only talking a mile, and the way he blasted home in that 6 1/2-furlong sprint win at Keeneland Oct. 13 indicates he can surely handle the added furlong and a half. After all, he’s not being asked to go 10 furlongs or anything like that; just 8 furlongs today, thank you. He’s up in class indeed but not significantly. And while he had to get on a plane his trainer Wesley Ward has shown he can pick his spots, can ship and win. Heck, the past couple years he’s shipped to Europe and won.

And with his speed, and no one lined up against him with close to his amount of early gas, he figures in line to be in command from the start. Ward has superb numbers off a freshening and he pumped a strong 6-furlong bullet work into this guy at Keeneland Nov. 5 (1:13.40B) before shipping here.

In other words, there’s a lot to like here. Well, except the expected short price.

But maybe you can turn a 6-5 shot into a decent an exacta that pays off at 4-1 or 5-1. AOTEAROA has done something the top pick hasn’t. Not only has he won on turf but he’s won at this trip, and in fact that win came in a stakes (the Zuma Beach at Santa Anita Oct. 6), defeating the until-then unbeaten Diamond Bachelor in the process. That was enough to earn a shot at the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and while those waters proved too deep he doesn’t deal with that kind of opposition here – unless PABLO DEL MONTE is of that ilk. He is legitimate candidate to support the exacta and if you feel PABLO DEL MONTE could be vulnerable come furlong number 8 is a most viable alternative. Another option is GLOBAL VIEW. This son of Galileo, not only a beast on turf in Europe in his heyday but one of the world’s elite grass sires, cost a pretty penny at auction ($500K). He moved to turf for the first time at Santa Anita Oct. 27 and finished well down the hill to beat maidens so he’s heading the right way to be sure. He is up in class and routing for the first time but with that pedigree and price tag there’s every reason to be optimistic. They didn’t pay that kind of money to get an allowance horse now did they? - Michael Hammersly

Closer Looks >>

Race 3

Closer Looks >>

Race 4

Miesque Stakes

CLENOR and NESSO knocked heads a couple times this fall with CLENOR getting the better of those two outings. There’s little reason to think that won’t be the case again here as despite the fact both found the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Fillies waters too deep they still loom the main protagonists here.

CLENOR came from Ireland with forward-moving form this summer and promptly flourished in the States. She easily won her U.S. debut, her first win, at Del Mar Aug. 7, and then easily won the Juvenile Fillies Turf there Sept. 2, easily beating NESSO back into second (3 1/4 lengths). To show she wasn’t just a Del Mar specialist she next shipped to Santa Anita and rallied to win the Surfer Girl Oct. 6 (NESSO was again second, this time a closer three-quarters of a length).

That was enough to earn her a shot at the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Fillies Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita Nov. 1 but a tough post (No. 10) and sluggish start (was 13th early) had her on the outside looking in, and she wound up a well-beaten eighth. Still, those were some of the best 2-year-old fillies turfers anywhere. She faces no such opposition today and so long as there are no ill effects from that run she figures tough to handle here.

It’s most encouraging that since that BC try she’s posted two strong works (4 furlongs in :48.40B Nov.15; 4 furlongs in a bullet :48.20 here Nov. 21) to indicate she’s doing well and that there are no ill effects.

NESSO was no match for CLENOR when second to her (beaten 3 1/4 lengths) in the Juvenile Fillies Turf at Del Mar Sept. 2. Remember, though, not only was that her first try on turf, but it was her first route, first try vs. winners and it came after over two months off. She was then a sharp second to CLENOR (beaten less than a length) in a turf route stakes at Santa Anita Oct. 6. Like CLENOR, that earned her a shot at the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf but like that rival found those waters too deep. She ended up on the lead that day setting a brisk pace and paid the price. Well, she’s well down in class and showed in her good second in the Surfer Girl at Santa Anita Oct. 6 she may be best from just OFF the pace. A return to those tactics certainly puts her in the mix. There’s not much between these two.

SAVINGS ACCOUNT cost a pretty penny at auction ($310K) and ran on gamely to beat maidens on turf at this trip on this course Nov. 8. She takes a hefty step up in class but may be ready for such a move. SUSHI EMPIRE is a maiden facing winners, yes, but she finished just a nose behind ‘ACCOUNT in that turf mile race here Nov. 8 so if that gal is a player here – and she is – then doesn’t it follow that this filly can be a player here, too? Darn tootin’ it does. - Michael Hammersly

Closer Looks >>

Race 5

Spot Play

Homebred 1st-timer LUCKY JACK (#4, 4-1) looks both fit enough and quick enough to win debut off a very solid work pattern.- Marcus Hersh

Closer Looks >>

Race 6

Closer Looks >>

Race 7

Closer Looks >>

Race 8

Closer Looks >>

Race 9

Spot Play

No knock on the favorites, but trainer Victor Garcia’s outstanding record first off the claim stamps MAJESTIC MOMENT (#6, 8-1) as a gamble. Since April 2010, Garcia is 9-for-17 first off the claim. -Brad Free

Closer Looks >>

Race 10

Spot Play

Dropper MAGIC DADDY can win, but bomber JULIE’S BELOVED (#7, 20-1) might be worth a stab. His debut was okay; veteran trainer Lloyd Wicker has posted upsets with similar. -Brad Free

Closer Looks >>