Betfair Hollywood: DRF Plus handicapping report for November 29, 2013
Race 1 |
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Race 2 |
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Race 3 |
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Race 4 |
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Race 5 |
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Race 6 |
Spot PlayMUCHOS BESOS (#8, 7-2) gets off the dreaded SA rail and drops in class after chasing 10-time winner Big Wags and five-time winner Half Dome Dude. A two-time winner at BHP, ’BESOS meets easier. -Brad Free
Spot PlaySANDYS DIAMOND (#5, 9-2) looked like a new horse the way he won here Nov. 15. Not only did he storm home after a sluggish start to whip cheaper, but O’Neill saw fit to claim him (23% off a claim) and now gives him a most-encouraging multiple-level class hike off the claim. That speaks of confidence and remember there was a time this guy was well regarded (back in 2011 he was given a stakes shot in Chicago). -Michael Hammersly
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Race 7 |
Citation AnalysisSILENTIO and WINNING PRIZE should be defined favorites in the betting, though I wouldn’t want to have to decide which horse will be favored. But I do think there are reasons to believe Winning Prize is the more likely winner of the Citation. Take a look at Silentio’s running lines: With the possible exception of the Kilroe Mile last winter, all his top performances have come in his first race after a layoff. He has no history of following a big race with another big race, and here he runs back 27 days after the biggest race of his career. Winning Prize, on the other hand, should be a fresh but fit horse. He destroyed graded-stakes-class Chips All In in his lone US turf start, his first race after being imported from South America, and while his performance level dropped a notch in the Shadwell Mile, it’s fair to guess he wasn’t at his best racing on Polytrack. His Argentine form – which is very good -- suggests the horse distinctly prefers grass, and he is well drawn on the outside for an ideal trip just behind likely pace-setters My Best Brother and Bright Thought. On paper there’s enough pace to ensure this is a fairly run race, and if one was trying to run Silentio out of the exacta, I would suggest two candidates: SUMMER FRONT and BIG BANE THEORY. With onl four well spaced starts this year, Summer Front is another fresh horse, and, as with Winning Prize, his off-turf Shadwell can be forgiven. These are stronger foes than he beat in his two wins earlier this year, but the trainer does very well sending East Coast horses to West Coast turf races, and Summer Front had little chance from a terrible draw when he shipped west last season. As a 4-year-old with eight starts, Big Bane Theory might not have hit his ceiling yet, and I’ve long thought this was a talented horse. He’s a classic mid-pack stalker, & I have no idea what he was doing on the lead when he faced Silentio and others in the Sir Beaufort a little more than a year ago. My guess is Bright Thought’s tremendous form from last winter will never return, and that He Be Fire N Ice is over the top after a string of peak performances through late summer and fall. - Marcus Hersh
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Race 8 |
Spot PlayWhile the favorites in this G2 are clear, the sharpest entrant is longshot class hiker BIO PRO (#5, 12-1). He moves up after a big win in a minor stakes, and figures for a great trip positioned right behind the speed. -Brad Free
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Race 9 |
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