Betfair Hollywood: DRF Plus handicapping report for November 28, 2013
Race 1 |
Closer Looks >> |
Race 2 |
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Race 3 |
Spot PlayTANGERINE TICKLE (#5, 9-2) has done her best work SPRINTING on turf (1 win, 2 2nds in 3 tries) and she gets back to that game here. She’s been freshened since fading in a tough Cal-bred turf route at SA Oct. 13 (winner Journey On is since stakes placed) so along with the move to a better trip she’s got a bit of a break and there’s a class drop to boot. Oh, and that bullet 1:13.40 move here Nov. 21 says she’s feeling spry. -Michael Hammersly
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Race 4 |
Vernon O. Underwood AnalysisThis is a weird race. I come up with more questions than answers. Start with the morning line: Is HANDSOME MIKE really going to be 3-1 off two 8th-place & two 10th-place finishes while MAJESTIC STRIDE is 2-1 coming of three sharp races, the last of which was a close fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint? At 2-1, I’d have no problem getting behind Majestic Stride, but the thought is he drops significantly lower than that, making straight betting less appealing. Other questions: Did Jeff Bonde, Majestic Stride’s trainer, just toss ANILLO in to make sure this race didn’t get scrapped for lack of entries? Or is this 3-year-old sitting on a major leap forward – the sort that Majestic Stride took between his races in September and October? And another morning-line question: Could Anillo really be as short as 6-1? I don’t see how. What about CHOSEN MIRACLE? His last 11 starts have been on turf, but he has a 3-1-1-1 record on synthetics. Why hasn’t the barn given him another synthetic look since August 2011? COLOR OF COURAGE? Coming back for first start since July 2011, his second return from a layoff of well over one year? A couple positions I will take. First, I’m all against ROMAN THREAT. He returned from a year-plus break a shadow of his brilliant early-career self. This looks like wishing and hoping time from the connections, and my feeling is he’ll never bounce back to his best. Second, I can’t see anything to like about Handsome Mike, especially at anything close to those published odds. Hate to resort to the chalk, but think Majestic Stride doesn’t bounce from his BC Sprint run, and to these eyes, his pedigree looks like one that could produce a performance on synthetics superior to what he’s shown on dirt. I’d key him and fool around with Anillo and Chosen Miracle to round out exotics. - Marcus Hersh
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Race 5 |
Spot PlayTHUNDER COLE (#7, 5-2) had an odd trip last time in a similar turf route. He jumped a shadow into the backstretch, lost position, re-rallied, and finished fourth. He gets a key rider switch to Rafael Bejarano. -Brad Free
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Race 6 |
Vulnerable FavoriteTOO OBVIOUS (#1, 5-2) is certainly the one to beat coming off a sharp 2nd (beaten just a nose) in a race like this here Nov. 7 when blinkers were added. That being said, the Beyer didn’t come back all that strong (53) and she’s mired on the rail here (Post 1 is 3 for first 47, 6%, at races under a mile so far this meet). Yes, she has speed and may be able to flee this inside slot, but that last good run and the fact leading rider Bejarano now takes the call may depress your price to the point you might want to look around elsewhere first. - Michael Hammersly
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Race 7 |
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Race 8 |
Spot PlayHEAVENS STAIRWAY (#8, 6-1) Closer Looks >> |