Betfair Hollywood: DRF Plus handicapping report for December 1, 2013

Race 1

Closer Looks >>

Race 2

Closer Looks >>

Race 3

Closer Looks >>

Race 4

Spot Play

JUST FISHIN (#7, 10-1) is a 10-race maiden, but actually has a good turf record (6-0-3-1) & comes off an unrepresentative dirt race that should help price. Steady work pattern & projects on favorable trip stalking contested pace. Several turf-unknowns at short-ish prices here. - Marcus Hersh

Closer Looks >>

Race 5

Spot Play

Los Alamitos shippers occasionally win low-level claimers at Hollywood; BUDS PAL (#1, 15-1) could be another. He is sharp, has speed, and might be the one to catch. -Brad Free

Closer Looks >>

Race 6

Hollywood Derby

After ROOKIE SENSATION weaved through traffic and surged from between horses to look so good winning Santa Anita’s Grade 2 Twilight Derby Nov. 1, trainer John Shirreffs initially said they would skip this race and point for Santa Anita and maybe take a shot at some big dirt races.

Well, plans have apparently changed, and that’s a good thing. Apparently the budding 3-year-old came out of that win feeling so good and is doing so well they simply can’t sit on him for another month or so, hence a shot at this Grade 1. And heck, he may well go favored here as he looked that good winning last time and has now rattled off four straight smashing efforts (three of those being wins).

He’s flourished now on Del Mar’s grass course and Santa Anita’s so odds are he’ll have no trouble with the change of venue to this place. Note some versatility, too. While he came from well back in his last three note he pressed the pace when he beat maidens on this main track June 16. He’s simply come into his own since the addition of blinkers four starts ago. That tactical speed could be critical, too, as it may allow him to get a headstart and first run on the main dangers.

Worried about a son of Unbridled’s Song relishing the 1 1/4 miles? Don’t be. Remember, last year’s winner (Unbridled Command) was a grandson of Unbridled’s Song (damsire), and ROOKIE SENSATION has stamina on the bottom side, too, as damsire Stately Don is only kin to Manila, maybe the best American-produced grass horse of all time.

With all that going for him it’s tough to believe this guy won’t find his way into the exacta.

That doesn’t mean he’s found himself a bunch of patsies to deal with, however. The most dangerous may be East Coast raider ADMIRAL KITTEN. The son of grass champ and top grass sire Kitten’s Joy is proven at the highest level. He comes here off six straight top-two finishes (though it’s worth nothing just one of those was a win; the other five were all 2nds). This rallied strongly to be a sharp 2nd in the Grade 1 Jamaica on turf at Belmont Oct. 5 (just a half-length behind Up With the Birds, maybe the best horse in Canada) and this longer trip should be a boon. After all, he rallied strongly to win the Grade 1 Secretariat at this distance at Arlington in August.

SEEK AGAIN is a scary English shipper for the Juddmonte folks. This multiple winner overseas comes with some strong Racing Post Ratings (109 earned for his last start, a win at York Oct. 12). GERVINHO was third only 1 1/2 lengths behind ‘SENSATION in the Twilight Derby so his proximity to the top pick certainly means he’s a player as well. He has tactical speed and the Unusual Heats can handle any trip. JACK MILTON has done nothing wrong in seven starts, finishing in the top-three each time. That includes a third to ADMIRAL KITTEN in the aforementioned Secretariat and third behind Up With the Birds and Admiral Kitten in the Grade 1 Jamaica. He figures to keep coming. - Michael Hammersly

Spot Play

Facing modest U.S. foes, import SEEK AGAIN (#5, 6-1) can upset this G1. His overseas form improved as the season progressed; Juddmonte Farms places them in the right spots. -Brad Free

Closer Looks >>

Race 7

Spot Play

SECRETSATMIDNIGHT (#8, 7-2) had trouble his last pair, he goes route to sprint, from an outside post, and trains like a colt with more ability than he has shown so far. -Brad Free

Vulnerable Favorite

Comebacker BATTLED (#5, 5-2) is possibly over-rated, and his higher-odds stable mate Secretsatmidnight has a current-racing advantage. Bob Baffert trains both. -Brad Free.

Closer Looks >>

Race 8

Matriarch Stakes

TIZ FLIRTATIOUS ran only 6th in the Grade 1 BC Filly & Mare Turf at Santa Anita but from a Beyer standpoint it was her best career race. Facing some of the best gals in the world she sat back and finished well to be beaten just two lengths by likely turf distaff champ Dank, earning a 100 BSF in the process. So, while some may view that as a sign she isn’t as sharp as she was previously when winning four of her first starts of the year, well, that would appear to be a mistake.

She’s gone from a very nice gal to the best turf distaffer out West. She rallied strongly to be 2nd in this race last year (to today’s foe BETTER LUCKY) but appears to have improved at least a couple lengths in the meantime, and the last burst she’s displayed in her races this year has been smashing. She isn’t some one-dimensional deep closer either. Not only DISCREET MARQ, PIANIST and possibly a couple others ensure a solid pace, but TIZ FLIRTATIOUS has enough tactical speed to give her rider, Joel Rosario, options. If he needs to be closer early on, so be it; if he wishes to sit and wait, that’s surely an option, particularly with her final-furlong afterburners. Two superb recent works, including a bullet :59.60 here Nov. 23, show there are no ill effects from her BC Filly & Mare try.

DAYATTHESPA was the favorite in this race last year but nearly saw her career end when she jumped a shadow and careened into the rail, suffering a severe gash. Needless to say she was unable to be competitive but she’s come back nicely this year and a superb 2nd in the Grade 1 First Lady at Keeneland Oct. 5 when narrowly beaten a head by BETTER LUCKY on a course turned into a bog by heavy rains hints she may be getting back to the form that earned her favoritism in this race last year.

And while she handled the yielding turf at Keeneland last time she’s always struck us as better on the type of grass surface she’ll be dealing with here. BETTER LUCKY is back to defend her title, and as noted above is one tough customer having beaten the top two in this last year and just recently defeating DAYATTHESPA at Keeneland. She’s a proven commodity at this game and level and showed last year she handles this place with aplomb.

Another one who’s tempting to use with TIZ FLIRTATIOUS is the classy 3-year-old DISCREET MARQ. She has considerable speed but is by no means speed-crazy. After her win in the Pebbles at Belmont Oct. 14 her trainer Christophe Clement mentioned this race as a target so it’s a great sign she’s kept to the plan and he opted to ship across the country to run in this. After all, he knew who he’d be facing and he shipped her anyway. It’s possible she’s the controlling speed and even if not she can press and maybe get first run on the three aforementioned elders who all figure to be behind her early. - Michael Hammersly

Closer Looks >>

Race 9

Closer Looks >>

Race 10

Closer Looks >>