Betfair Hollywood: DRF Plus closer looks for December 13, 2013

Race 1

Incline Village

Ran well on this turf course last time out; the problem - that was in May; so now he's returning from a lengthy layoff; barn can strike with longshot comebackers, but 7-month layoffs are not easily overcome.

Chief Lion

Has never raced on grass but is blessed with speed and has performed well in three straight starts; sire gets 14% first-time turf winners; dam never raced on turf and none of her babies have won on it; still think his speed makes her tough.

The Cleaners

Has the benefit of a nice turf sprint already - finishing second going down the hill at SA before finishing third here on the Cushion track; needs to make up 5 1/2 lengths on Chief Lion, who finished well in front of him last out; by a fine turf sprinting sire in City Zip.

Presenceofagenius

First timer is by a good sire in Sky Mesa but this one has essentially traded slow works with fast ones over the past month; 13% debut winners for the sire (counts all surfaces); 12% winners first-time on turf including those that have raced and those who have not; dam only ran twice, but was a fast-closing fourth in a turf sprint.

Expo and Fig

Best race came when he routed on the dirt; he didn't run nearly as well when he raced on the Cushion track here; Star Dabblers are 5 for 30 racing first time on grass; dam unplaced in one turf start; one of her foals is a turf winner.

Fly High

Been a disappointment, going winless in 11 starts, though he has at least gotten some pieces of late; was a close fourth in a maiden race that came off the turf last time but that was a very slow race by SoCal standards; unraced dam doesn't have any foals to win on turf; 10% winners for the sire with first-time turfers.

Warrior's Ridge

Has grass experience and early speed; that's the good news; the bad news is that he hasn't raced since August 2012; when a horse goes away for that long of a time, it's usually due to a major physical setback; gaps in his worktab from Sept. 23 to Oct. 13 and then another until Nov. 15.

Race 2

Spring Breeze

O'Neill returns the Congrats filly back to her $20,000 purchase price after three up-and-down starts against better. Last time she ran for this price, she won by nearly eight lengths and earned an 89 Beyer, the best figure achieved by anyone in this field. Trainer has a good record (16 per cent, $2.14 ROI) second time off a layoff.

Woebegon

Her three victories on Cushion Track are two more than the rest of the field combined. Followed up a victory on the bullring with a fourth in a Turf Paradise Stakes and a last place finish for $32,000. Certainly good enough on her best day, but the double class drop may mean she's on the way down.

Madoffwiththemoney

Retreated quickly in a turf sprint November 7, but had never run particularly well on the lawn. Record on synthetic tracks is much better (9 4-3-0). Drops to a career low $20,000 after being claimed by Danny Velasquez for $25,000 November 7. Had run well for Orozco before, so Velasquez takes the 5-pound weight edge.

Zees Chris

In the money 7-of-10 on Cushion Track, but her Beyers have been on the low side and she's been well beaten by the primary contenders in this field. Hasn't been out since April 25, so trainer Mike Harrington exercises his option of running the 5-year-old without a claiming tag.

Addendum

Post position seems to be the key to the trouble-prone filly. When she draws the outside and stays out of difficulty, she tends to run well. The Lawyer Ron offspring found such conditions last time and was a sharp second. Though she's up in class today, she's run well at this level before.

Race 3

Ankeny Hill

This colt has a good deal of early speed to employ after breaking from the rail post, but it does look like he will feel some early pace pressure from the outside; like the idea of him shortening up in distance for this, but without the prospect of an early breather, this might prove to be a tough test.

He's Not too Shaby

He was a sharp winner over this turf course in his turf debut back in May and he might be able to sit a comfortable trip on the rail right in behind the early speed; runner up from latest returned to win next out here on 11/15 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 62.5-55k claimers with an 84 Beyer.

Persuasive Paul

Stakes winning colt appears to be on top of his game entering this race but this will be the first time that he's sprinted over turf and he does appear to be more comfortable routing; going to look in another direction.

Old Man Lake

Two of his three starts since being placed over turf have been solid performances and it doesn't hurt to see that he's comfortable sprinting over this turf course; leaning toward others for the top spot, can't see any reason why he can't get himself into the mix with these.

Summer Exclusive

Stakes winning gelding has looked good in all four of his starts sprinting over turf, and he was particularly good in his only start over turf at today's distance; third place finisher from latest returned to win next out here on 11/17 going 6 1/2f vs. 40-35k claimers with an 83 Beyer; must respect.

Rangi (GB)

His two starts over turf since arriving in America haven't been bad performances, and when seeing what he did sprinting over turf racing overseas, it helps give him a little added appeal as he gets ready to make his first start in a turf sprint in America.

Great Friends Rule

He is making his first start away from the O'Neill barn after a 25k claim, but this gelding has been sharp the last four times he's been seen sprinting over turf, and the 88 Beyer Speed Figure he recorded in his latest outing represents the best last race figure in this field.

Caught Napping (GB)

Since putting together a nice performance in his first start in America to earn a stakes placing, his form has headed in the wrong direction, and he might not care for being turned back to a sprint distance.

Race 4

Carson's Ten

Showed career speed down the hillside but had to hail the cab when real racing began; last couple of drills were solid; he hails from a good barn but needs to pick it up to make an impact here.

Arkenstone

Wide twice, he should have his sea legs under him by now; stakes winning dam took 4 of 31, banked over $170K, lost 6 times at 2; 3 of 5 siblings won; 2 won at 2; top earner Preservata took several stakes, banked nearly $140K; can't fault those that give him another shot here.

Wynhurst

Fairbanks 5 for 42 with debuting juveniles; sire didn't race at 2, took 6 of 19, won a Grade 2, banked nearly $900K; dam took one sprint as an older horse; all 5 siblings won; 3 won at 2 including 2 debut winners; top earner Twelve Pack took 2 stakes, earned almost $200K; both Bafferts must be respected.

Rough Passage

Youngster could have sulked after the poor start but he compete like a horse that has some try in him; dam was unraced; the 1 for 23 sibling cashed on turf, lost only start at 2; the hotter the pace the better for this runner.

Midnight Hawk

Midnight Lute 2 for 58 with debuting juveniles; sire graduated in juvenile debut at Del Mar with a 78 Beyer, took the BC Sprint, banked over $2.6 million; SW dam won at 2 for only score, earned about $190K; 4 of 6 sibs won; one won at 2; top earner Major Marv took TUP Derby, banked over $150K; colt looks fit enough.

Snuggley Bear

Fried in a duel to kick it off, took overland route in last; nearly 4 clear in last, the race over the surface can only help; youngster has more speed than he just flashed; slight improvement here and this guy will be a handful.

Go Black Tie

Guess somebody had to run third in the small field; dam s lone win came on grass as older runner; family is solid; all 8 siblings won; two won at 2; top kin Imelda Oh earned nearly $160K; look for him in the picture late if at all.

Midnight Mayhem

Walked out of the game when offered for a tag; wonder how high expectations can be for this $1700 purchase?; SP 11 for 29 dam didn't race at 2, earned nearly $200K; one of 3 siblings won; that runner took one sprint as older horse; may need softer to shine.

Race 5

Pyrotechnics

Sire is 43-for-359 with 1st-turf starters; he is out of a 5-0-2-0 turf dam (19K); 1 foal to race on the lawn Bonnie's Bearcat went 1-0-0-0; not much run in either loss the latest was a Beyer speed figure 2nd-start regression when usually runners improve following their unveiling start

Public Policy

Debut-Beyer speed figure is a field-best number; regressed 2nd-time out when chasing the runner-up finisher who graduated next out in a BHP-MSW event with a 75 Beyer; sire is 1-for-3 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 2-0-0-2 grass dam (10K); her only other foal to race is 6-0-2-2 turfer Brave Act (43K).

Anythingtogeteven

Sire is 0-for-0 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 1-0-0-0 grass dam; 3 foals to race on the green are 0-for-4 combined; speedster gets the class tested after losing in maiden-claiming events; stamina is the biggest issue; with the lightest-weight assignment ever for this hopes to carry his speed a long way.

Mauco

Sire is 0-for-2 with 1st-turf starters; dam finished off the board in her only grass start; 2 foals to race on turf are 0-for-5 combined; races beyond 6.5F for the 1st time; held on much better with 1st blinkers in last; 0-for-16 sprint-to-route trainer since 2012 does not add to the appeal.

Nooten

Was screaming out for more distance in the sprint-turf debut and gets it here; clearly the grass course was to his liking and if he can just repeat last would be a major-stretch factor here; wish the SA-dirt workout sparkled more for this but looms a logical contender for win honors.

Bodrum

Sire is 23-for-346 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 1-for-3 grass dam who graduated at 7F in England; 2 of 3 foals to race on turf are grass winners including 2-for-11 Wind of Bosphorous (96K green); adds blinkers for the new surface seeking improvement.

Awesome Return

Sire is 13-for-110 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of a 2-0-0-0 grass dam; 9 weeks since the even-running debut where he was screaming out for more distance and gets it here; super-fresh trainer and a normal 2nd-time out improvement are positive angles for improvement.

Hye I'm Jack

Dueled into defeat in the debut but looms as a major-pace presence here with stamina the major drawback; sire is 0-for-6 with 1st-turf starters; dam did not race on grass (1-for-6 overall, 2K); 1 of 3 foals to race on turf is a lawn winner (3-for-16 Soul Candy 156K turf).

Unusual Fleet

Dueled for the front in latest and is another who hopes to carry his speed today's 1 Mile; sire is 45-for-359 with 1st-turf starters; dam went 4-0-0-0 on the lawn; 3 of 4 foals to race on grass are turf winners including 181K-grasser SW-Medzendeekron.

Cernobbio

Trainer has been superb since 2012 with runners 1st-time in the barn; saved best for last off the 55-day absence 1st time on turf when exploding late to just miss; the extra half furlong here helps the cause; the 2-back winner repeated in a CRC-80K event with a 72 Beyer; would need a significant Beyer boost to graduate but see plenty of upside for this.

Scamalot

The 1st race off the claim/2nd-career start was a major disappontment; adding distance off the 2-sprint fades is cause for concern; his sire is 2-for-22 with 1st-turf starters; dam did not race on grass (1-for-17, 40K); 3 foals to race on turf are 0-for-7 combined.

Race 6

Amanda

Moves to the fence for the stretchout after getting within a couple of lengths of the winner in each of her last 2 sprint tries; filly hasn't shown much early lick, but the dam is a SP router who won 3 time going long prior to dropping SW router and 113K earner Nacho Business; doesn't catch much and figures to have a say in the outcome.

Ilovefools

Failed to offer much of anything in her 2 sprints spins and now she'll try the route; dam was a local Melair Stakes winner and she dropped a route winner so maybe the added ground helps, but this gal will need to improve signficantly to step with these.

Sheza Eyeopener

She got closer to the winner than she ever had before in her return to synthetic footing here last time out; filly will make her first route try here and her sibs are a combined 0 for 4 going long; maybe she's closer early in here but have to look elsewhere for the winner.

Room for Me

Had some trouble in her first out sprint for twice this price but really didn't do much running; maybe the class drop helps but the bottom half of her pedigree suggests that she may be better at one turn than at today's 2 turn trip; just watching her here.

Gin Jan Lizzie

Runner up in her last 2 at this trip and level gives it another go while making her third start in 4 weeks here; she doesn't have any early lick and there's not a lot of that commodity in here so she could have plenty to do in the lane; still, they'll probably have to hold her off.

Lovely in Laguna

Adds the hood for her second route try after being beaten 3 lengths for second money by one of these last time; she's another with no early foot and that doesn't play out well given this heat's pace scenario, but maybe the equipment change helps get her more involved from the bell.

Onyx Be Good

Cal bred gets back in with open claimers off a weak try in her return from the layoff; maybe she's better with that one behind her and she was ok going long for this price on the Golden Gate lawn, but in her current form she looks to have her work cut out for her here.

Lemonade Springs

Enters this off another ugly running line in her return from the fall freshening; mare hasn't been a threat in any of her 10 starts and it doesn't appear as if that's going to change at a long price today.

Silver Gun Girl

Adds shades for the stretchout off another poor effort; mare did run her best at 2 turns at Fairplex a few months back and she has handled this strip in the past, but she'll need to be a lot better than she was last time to have a say in here.

Charger Girl

Didn't threaten any of the money finishers in her local return at the level last time out; she doesn't catch a tough field, but off that she's done of late it's hard to make any type of case for the barn's lone start this year; passing.

Visions of Candy

Nice effort this trip and level while adding shades for her return from the freshening; filly could go better with that one behind her and she has shwon the ability to sit close which should only help her in here; worth a look against this bunch.

Supreme Ballerina

Outside drawn 6 year old makes her first start in 15 months after hitting the bench off another weak try at Del Mar; she'll return at the same level with some long recent drills on tap, but despite the weak competition, have to think she needs one before we see the best she has to offer.

Race 7

Holladay Road

Canani thought enough of this guy to give him stakes experience and he s trained solidly since getting to the winner last time; 4 clear in last, he needs help up front but there are few in here that could vie for the top; drill 5 days ago says runner is feeling pretty good about himself; should be in the picture late if at all.

Power Foot

Steadied last time but still inching toward the winner late; like the series of drills since the last effort including the foundation move on the 3rd; proven locally, he has a decent turn of late foot when he can get clear; the trip will be everything.

Empty Headed

Gelding lost his best chance when he hopped in the air last time; a slow learner, he did something that is not easy and that's beat winners right after the graduation party; handled by the Sadler runner in the Anita finale, must find a way to turn the tables on that foe among others.

Monastic

Versatile enough to be placed anywhere and still fire, this invader could sit a nice stalk and pounce trip here; like fact he got a local drill under his belt and barn has been firing with everything to close out the season; he got late in last, but the way he was inching toward the winner on 7/20 gives an inkling he can get the distance.

American Blend

This guy has some things to prove; blinks off again after the fiasco last time; he has been handled easily in both grass efforts; he say all the heels the other time at this trip but Espinoza got a chance to figure him put; needs very best.

Olympic Blue

Soph pressed the moderate splits in last, made the top, could not carry on with the momentum; you could have gotten this guy for 8 grand to kick off the year and he s made nearly $160K in 2013; not too shabby; the concern: with rival on the direct outside having much more speed, this guy could get fried.

Horizontalyspeakin

Soph is fresh and dangerous; it took awhile for the light to go on but he has been solid since the beach debut; 9/29 place horse won next out in an $80K optional and the winner 9/29 repeated in a $72K stakes with a 93 Beyer; best of 10 bullet in the holster; can't fault those that project a theft here.

Mr T Bird

T Bird has been acting a bit more like an Escort of late; he's only beaten 7 horses in his last 4 races; runner has the two races to build on here and clever connections thought enough of him to try the Graded races; snappy move on the 3rd is a positive; needs to pick it up.

Race 8

Free From My Ex

Only victory in 14 starts this year was in a $10,000 miler at Sunland Park. Has gone winless in 11 straight, including a 21-length defeat in a $3,200 claimer at Ruidoso Downs. In light, but eased last time and would need a major form reversal to contend.

Twin Six

Plunged from $32,000 to $8,000 November 23 and was a closing third, though he was aided by a fast pace. Shortens up for a low-profile trainer, who gives the aptly named apprentice Green his first ride. Threat in this field if he holds together.

Ekahi

In a class free-fall and hits rock bottom today. Recent form has been terrible and there's no rhyme or reason for a turnaround. Connections are a combined 3-for-94 this year. Pass.

Sandys Diamond

Good pattern for O'Neill, who claimed the 5-year-old for $8,000 from an easy victory November 15, double-jumped him to finish second two weeks later, and now drops him back to $8,000. Obviously not very sound, but has been first or second in 7-of-9 this year.

Whipstock

Loomed a threat along the rail against similar November 23 before fading the final eighth. Shorter trip figures to help the 6-year-old, who adds blinkers for the first time. Jeff Bonde wins at 22 per cent with that equipment change and is enjoying a strong meet (30 8-4-4). Kayla Stra also doing well this Autumn with 17 per cent victories.

Royal Encounter

Lost a photo at Del Mar for this tag, ran second in a $5,000 starter allowance at Barretts, then for some reason was rocketed all the way up to $25,000, where he ran sixth. Back at the bottom today for George Lopez, who did well last year but has struggled (1-for-45) in 2013. Trainer-rider have combined to win 21 per cent with a $3.24 ROI.

Life Rule

Been searching for his proper level since a first out victory over $20,000 maiden claimers July 14 on Cushion Track. Split the field in a $16,000 non-winners of two lifetime November 9 and Mike Puype wastes no time by dropping him to the cellar. Might improve against this kind.

Bigbari

Made the most from his two victories, scoring a 14-1 upset against $20,000 maiden claimers in 2011 and a 54-1 shocker in a restricted $10,000 claimer on the bullring September 22. Reunited with Gonzalo Nicolas, who has become the top apprentice in Southern California.

Da Ruler

Added front wraps and showed renewed energy when second to Sandy's Diamond here November 15. Shortened stride alarmingly last time, suggesting the Roman Ruler horse is on borrowed time. Addition of blinkers probably won't matter at this juncture.

Moment of Weakness (IRE)

Very inconsistent of late, making his chances difficult to predict. Rejoined by Chantal Sutherland-Kruse, who has a productive record for Vann Belvoir (18 per cent, $3.09 ROI). Trainer however, has only won 10 per cent moving from route to sprint with a flat-bet loss.

Always the Same

In the money 7-of-17, but has one second from four starts on this track. Only victory this year was at 5 1-2 furlongs, so today's extra quarter mile may be stretching things. Still, could make the lead in this field and his trainer is winning at 20 per cent this year.

Afleet Cowboy

Sent off his feet from the rail November 24, but could do no better than third. Back at the bottom as he seeks his first victory in the last 18 months. Jack Carava and Martin Pedroza have won only 9 per cent together recently, but historically have done much better than that.

Only the Gold

Upset the applecart at 41-1 November 23, defeating several of these. Two of his three victories have come on Cushion Track, enhancing his chances for an encore. Has run well at this distance and could come right back at this shorter trip if he finds enough pace.

Jay's Firetruck

Has been a disaster in his last three, losing by a combined 87 lengths. Last two were at Los Alamitos for $2,500 and $3,200, respectively, begging the question why he's even in here.

Bank the Eight

Has shown little since being claimed from Bob Baffert five starts back. As a matter of last resort, A C Avila lowers him to the bottom and removes blinkers. Hard to believe this is the same horse who won an allowance race on this track 13 months ago with a 109 Beyer.

Bluegrass Reward

Changed trainers since he last raced at Del Mar August 4. Steady work pattern bodes well for a runner who loves Cushion Track (8 3-1-0) and this distance (9 4-1-2). Gets a weight break with Orozco up and looms a bold factor if he makes the starting lineup.