Betfair Hollywood: Closer Looks for November 7, 2013

Race 1

Ransom Canyon

Makes his initial start on a synthetic track after going one for 13 on grass. Glen Hill Farm homebred dipped into a claimer for the first time October 14 and was promptly taken for $25,000 by Peter Miller, who strikes at 19 per cent first off a claim. Fits on ability, but stretch-running style doesn't usually fit Cushion Track profile.

Full Consent

Giant class drop from open $50,000 sophomore to $25,000 non-winners of two lifetime. First time around two turns for Jeff Mullins, who wins at 16 per cent with a flat-bet profit moving from sprints to routes. Already has speed and the addition of blinkers insures this one will carve out the fractions. Dangerous if Perez can harness his zip.

As Good as Gold

Freshened since Del Mar, where the Leonard Powell trainee finished seventh against better in a grass miler. Will be tracking Full Consent and could inherit the lead should that one wilt. Lone victory was on turf, but ran well on Tapeta at Golden Gate in April.

Copper Bay

Like Ransom Captive, making his first non-turf start. Shuffled back early last out, but should be more involved in the early going today, especially with Martin Garcia up. Mike Mitchell is outstanding in most categories, but is only 10 per cent moving from turf to synthetic with a poor $0.77 ROI. Chance, but may be an underlay.

Proud Step

Been racing evenly in sprints and attempts two turns in his sixth start. Not really bred for the long game and trainer having a forgettable year (3 per cent). Only angle is jockey-trainer, which has won one of three with a $6.27 ROI over the last two years.

Londinium

Though winless in five tries on synthetic, Bandini gelding has a pair of seconds, giving him the best form in the field on artificial surfaces. Has several races in his past performances that would make him the one to beat and could benefit from a stalking trip behind Full Consent and As Good As Gold. Talamo takes the call for new trainer Paul Aguirre.

Race 2

Hear the Ghost

Looked on his way to being a big Triple Crown player when a smart winner of the G2 San Felipe, beating Flashback; unfortunately, just days before the G1 SA Derby he was injured (knee injury) and knocked off the rail; that San Felipe win looks better, too, when you note 3 he beat that day came right back to win; workiing well for this and while in the long run he may be better going long he's proven he can sprint (including his maiden win over this track0; it's just a matter of whether he's ready to sprint fast enough to beat some nice guys here first time back after the layoff/injury.

Cyclometer

When Trainer Bruce's horses go fast in the a.m. they tend to go fast in the p.m.; 5yo has ample speed and and just a few months ago earned a crack at the G1 Triple Bend; decent 2nd here Oct. 6 may set him up well for a forward move, something he'll likely need if he's to beat these, but some prior Beyers show he's got that oomph in him.

Ready for More

Super turf mile try here Oct. 3 as he just missed; not only did he run well, but Puype saw fit to plunk down $50K to claim him and moves him up in price; that was also his first start out West and first start in over 3 months; moves back to what may be a better distance; still, 4 of his 5 wins have come on dirt, not the game we're playing today; sure like those last couple of works, too.

Atta Boy Pete

Set a hot pace in a Cal-bred hillside stakes here Oct. 19 and paid the price, fading to 9th; you can be a bit forgiving about that as the company and pace worked against him; drops may help, though this is no easy spot, but at least you know he likes synthetic.

Charlie'sboywins

Game sprint win here July 14; was freshened a couple months but they thought enough to try a stakes at BSR Sept. 18; OK, so that didn't go so well; drops, but note he's still note offered for a tag and all his best work (all 4 wins) have come on THIS synthetic track; still, these guys are tougher than what he was faacing this spring/summer.

Race 3

Thunder Cole

Full brother to Romeo Royale (4-32, 229k, including 3 of 25 turf starts for 183k) has the look of a top contender against these and he hauls the best last race Beyer Speed Figure with him into this event; early ground loss won't be a concern after breaking from a favorable rail post; must respect his chances.

All Star Bell

His form has improved since being placed over turf, and he's by a strong turf sire and out of a G3 stakes placed dam who won 5 of 29 starts for 289k, including 3 of 11 turf starts for 109k; note that he's making his first start for the Asmussen barn.

Public Interest

He put in a fine run from off the pace in his turf debut in his latest outing and the winner from that race returned to win next out at SA on 10/12 going 1m over turf vs. 25k OPC's with a 78 Beyer; he's a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes winner Liberian Freighter (10-33, 759k, including 8 of 28 turf starts for 634k).

Sidepocket Champ

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; lightly raced gelding is a 1/2 to Sidepocket Cat (10-39, 139k, including 1-for-1 over turf for 11k); he's shown a little something in his first two starts and like to see the early speed that he brings with him.

Warren's Casper

He was outrun at every point of call in his career debut while recording a last place finish and he's obviously going to need to be ready for a much sharper performance if he's to have a say in the outcome.

Tiz Futurity

Sire wins with approximately 16% of his turf starters and dam won once from three starts for 8k, and she didn't make a turf start; maybe the move to turf can help, but it's tough to give this 16-race maiden a favorable push in his turf debut.

Tester

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam was winless from seven starts, including three turf starts; not wild about what he showed us in his career debut but it looks like he's been training well lately.

Gentlemen Pete

He's had 19 chances to break his maiden before now and he was soundly defeated by a couple of today's rivals in his most recent start; he figures to have a difficult time trying to land even a minor award against these.

Prospector's Trick

His two starts over turf have been respectable performances and he might be looking forward to getting more distance to work with; he has a live look to him in this spot while getting a rider switch to Bejarano.

Admiral Rowan

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and this is the first foal to race from a dam who was winless from two starts and she didn't make a turf start; not only is there a long layoff, but his career best Beyer Speed Figure after five starts is a 6.

Wings of Mojave

He's a little interesting while making only his second start for this barn after being given some time off, but it might be worth noting the presence of Espinoza aboard another in here; at the very least, he's worthy of consideration underneath in the exotics.

Rob's Pal

Late running type sports improved recent form and he didn't finish all that far behind one of today's key rivals in Public Interest in his latest outing; winner from latest returned to win next out at SA on 10/12 going 1m over turf vs. 25k OPC's with a 78 Beyer.

Race 4

Sweet Lips Pooh

Turns back to sprint while getting another shot at a level at which she has run well twice; filly has some early lick and the synthetic surface at Del Mar was good to her this summer but several of these have run faster over the footing; nice to see a solid journeyman take interest in a filly who figures to offer some value.

Too Obvious

Goes first time for a tag after failing to get involved with MSWs on the Santa Anita dirt; filly showed good speed in each of her prior spins so maybe the addition of the hood helps it resurface and she did work pretty well on dirt for this last week; synthetic number she earned first out puts her right in the thick of this one.

Miraculous Mindy

Firster goes for a barn that's capable of firing with a newcomer but the recent dirt drills, though long, are pretty slow; sire is 0 for 3 with his debut runners and the SP dam did bank 141K while winning 4 races prior to dropping 4 winners including 192K earner Hello Bolly whose 5 wins all came on the green.

Mudge

Ran ok to get second money first out on dirt and now she'll give synthetic footing a shot; barn's second runner in here has also been working long of late for this and maybe she has a move forward in her with the initial experience behind her; sprint SW dam's other foal to race won 2 of 4 sprint starts so maybe this gal has a right to move forward quickly but she'll need to prove she can handle the new surface; consider.

Jogget

MSWs proved too much for her first time out and now she'll drop in to face a softer group for a barn that doesn't do so well with its second out runners; filly has worked well on synthetic footing so it wouldn't be a surprise to see her take a step forward with the experience behind her; dam won 3 sprints and dropped several winners including multiple SW and 638K earner Paradise Dancer.

She's Flush

Blew a clear midstretch lead when sent 2 turns for the initial time last time after a big runner up effort with a career best number at the trip 2 starts back; filly ran ok on synthetic footing this summer and she does have local main track experience; expecting she'll be a little tighter late in this sprint; main danger.

Eddies Curl

She's been idle since Del Mar where she twice ran big against better sprinters; filly drew the local rail in her career debut and was beaten just a length for all the money despite encountering trouble; barn hasn't had any recent luck with its fresh runners, but the drop to this level makes her the one to beat.

Tribal Yodeler

Barn hasn't has much recent success with newcomers and the dirt works don't offer many clues as to her ability; sire gets 10% first out winners from his offspring but the dam was winless from 12 tries and this is her first foal to race.

Race 5

Madoffwiththemoney

Stakes placed filly is seeking her first 1-2 finish over turf but her overall form has been strong enough to give her a competitive look in this spot and she is making her first start for the O'Neill barn after being claimed for 25k from her latest start.

Promiscuoussuances

She's done some nice work sprinting over turf in her career and her best effort is right in line with what it might take to win this; she has to be careful to avoid an early pace dispute, but viewing her as a legitimate player with blinkers going back on.

Deity (GB)

Respect the fact that she is capable of making noise against these on her best day and that she has run well a couple of times when fresh in her career; nevertheless, prefer to give her a race as she gets ready to make her first start since April.

Luxuriance

Minor stakes placed miss has run well in her four starts over this turf course but she is going to need to find her way back to her very best effort if she's to have a chance at the top spot; runner up from latest won next out at Dmr on 8/14 going 5f over turf vs. 25k OPC's with a 77 Beyer.

Courageousandbold

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and dam was winless from three starts, including a start over turf; respect her early speed but this might prove to be a tough spot for her first turf attempt.

Addendum

She might be more comfortable racing over dirt or a synthetic surface than she is over turf, and she is going to need to show up with a top try if she's to have a say in the outcome; prefer to look toward others.

Woodlandsway (GB)

She ran well in her latest start after a layoff and that was her first start wearing blinkers and her first start sprinting since arriving in America; she's an interesting option to consider while dropping in class to meet up with 25-22.5k claimers.

Citizen Jane

Her best effort doesn't appear to be strong enough to get the job done in this spot and we even had a chance to see what she can do over turf in her latest outing; she looks like more of an outsider.

Vegas Rules

Her career best Beyer Speed Figure was earned racing over a synthetic surface, and she's going to need to step it up over what she's shown in her two turf starts if she's to prove to be a factor.

Sleep Tight

This is an outfit that can be live with a fresh horse and note the work they've been doing with turf sprinters; viewing the presence of Bejarano as a positve indicator as he's won with 6 of 19 (32%) mounts for this barn in 2013; winner from her latest race returned to win next out at SA on 10/11 going 7f vs. 25-22.5k claimers with a 77 Beyer.

Kilted Tilt (IRE)

She clearly has natural ability to work, and even though this is her first start in more than a year, this is a barn that can gear one up for something like this; her recent workouts look sharp and she just might prove to be the dominant early speed.

Romantic Wish (GB)

There was a time when she would have had a competitive look to her in a spot like this, but it's tough to place any confidence in her based on what she's done in her last four starts, and when she was at her best, she seemed to prefer more distance than today's six-furlong assignment offers.

Rachels Belle

Sire wins with approximately 16% of his turf starters and dam won two of eight starts for 31k, and she didn't make a turf start; she has some early speed but she finds herself in a tough spot for her first turf start.

Woebegon

She's another in here who hasn't been at her best racing over turf in her career and her recent form hasn't been anywhere near her best; runner up from latest won next out at TuP on 11/3 going 6f vs. 30k OPC's with a 78 Beyer.

Race 6

Hasty Trend

Good record (9 2-1-2) on Cushion Track and at distance (6 2-1-1), but is way off his game and has been beaten double digits in his last five. Adding to the negatives, trainer is 0-for-12 this year and rider is batting 6 per cent.

Moment of Weakness (IRE)

Dueled for a half-mile before tiring October 14 in a race he likely needed. Trainer is above average (18 per cent, $2.49 ROI) second off a layoff and outstanding (21 per cent, $3.66 ROI) when he uses Southerland-Kruse. Tactical speed should play well in this field.

Free From My Ex

Last victory was in restricted $7,500 claimer at Sunland Park in March. Thrashed in all recent efforts and non competitive against several of these one start back. Hall of Fame trainer suffering through a 1-for-108 slump.

Tamarack Smarty

Limited experience on synthetics (1 0-0-0), but has a class advantage over his rivals and Mike Mitchell is exceptional on the drop. Aaron Gryder has ridden sparingly for this stable, but has a large ($3.58 ROI) flat-bet profit for Mitchell over the last two years. Lack of speed hurts, still a major contender.

Red Sharp Humor

Has never been big on winning (22 2-3-1) and now drops like a hot potato for his third start of the year. Still quick from the bell and could hold on a bit better in this relatively paceless field. Class reduction could help, but doubt it.

Unusual Jazz

Gamester looked to be on his way down, but snapped back to life with a narrow defeat at 18-1 October 3. Six of his seven victories have come on turf, however the 6-year-old is one-for-two on Cushion Track. On the negative side, trainer is only 3 per cent second off a layoff with a .057 ROI.

Royal Import (GB)

Captured two in a row at Golden Gate in March, but has been flat since. Capable of defeating these on his best day and it's interesting to note that seven of his eight victories have come on synthetics. Was the beaten favorite against a similar field one start back.

Majestic Moment

Had dead aim midstretch but hung a bit late and had to settle for third October 3. Claimed for $10,000 from John Sadler by Mike Pender, who has won five of his last 22 first off a claim for a $2.06 ROI. Stretch runner may need more pace than he figures to get today.

Tuckers Point

After losing his first 15 starts, Birdstone gelding has now rolled up three straight victories. Ultra game in his last at Del Mar and claimed for $10,000 by Tim Yakteen. Drop to the cellar is of little concern and the gelding has finished second in two of three Cushion Track appearances.

Only the Gold

Second Van Belvoir starter (Moment of Weakness) ran an improved race in his Santa Anita finale, rallying between horses for third. The Medaglia d'Oro offspring came back with a pair of snappy drills (:47 3/5, 1:00 2/5) and one of his two lifetime scores was on the Cushion.

Blake

Cushion track specialist (5 3-0-0) got involved in a speed duel against similar last out and retreated on the turn. Pace figures to be more kind to his style today and he could spring a mild surprise, especially with the seven-pound weight reduction. Apprentice Orozco looking for his first victory for Cerin.

Cause

Divided a cheaper field last out and must deal with the outside post today. Hasn't won in years and his rider has scored with only four of 104 mounts this year. Out of the money all five Cushion Track starts.

Graeme Crackerjack

Distant third in a marathon stakes at Ferndale last out. Takes a nosedive in class and will get a huge rider change to Bejarano if the Graeme Hall gelding makes the starting lineup. Solid half-mile work in :46 4/5 for Bonde since returning from the bullring.

Kingman Kid

Been spinning his wheels since a victory for $5,000 at Pleasanton in June. Seems a bit overmatched in Southern California and probably would be better served by a return to the Bay Area. Outside draw a major problem if he draws into the field.

Jay's Firetruck

Far back in both starts since being claimed away from John Sadler at Santa Rosa. Now must carry an additional 10 pounds and needs three scratches to even start. Lone victory was on this track, but prospects are dim in this spot.

Race 7

Warren's Flasher

Won 3 of 4 (2 of those wins on turf) in the spring and really seemed to be geteting things figured out; however, then came 2 months off and she hasn't looked the same since, failing to threaten in 3 subsequent starts, all on turf; in her defense, the Aug. 3 DMR run came off the layoff with traffic trouble, the Aug. 25 DMR run saw her stuck with a brutal post (10, going a mile) and here Oct. 11 start here likewise saw her with a brutal draw (11, at 1 1/8 miles) and then she had more trouble late; at least gets the fence today; still, it's a tough spot and all of her previous 3 pilots (Talamo, Maldonado, Bejarano) end up elsewhere.

Special Charm (IRE)

Tough to be too enthused; broke her maiden at this trip on turf Feb. 1 but then came nearly 4 months off and her 3 subsequent starts weren't too hot; now must deal with another layoff (over 2 months) but at least she's been working well and it's nice to see Trainer Ron isn't giving up on her as he does NOT risk her for a tag.

Level Headed

Maiden win came on this course at this trip almost a year ago so you know she likes it here; however, she wasn't seen again for over 9 months and when she did return, at AP Aug. 8, she ran so-so; then came another 2 months off and another so-so outing at SA; at least there's no panicky drop, there's not another layoff and you know she likes it here, but she still likely has to run the type of race she hasn't run yet in order to beat these.

Boller Bomb

4 wins, 3 on turf, though her only 2 local starts weren't very pretty; remember, though, those 2 outings were a rarite - her form prior and since has been pretty decent; left herself too much to do down the hill at SA Oct. 24 but today she gets more ground and Talamo was up for her good 2nd at this distance at SA in her race prior (Sept. 28).

Rosies Ready

Lone win came on synthetic, lone 2nd came on dirt; does have 1 3rd from 3 turf starts and it came at this trip at SA 2 back (Sept. 28) and she wasn't far at all behind today's foe Boller Bomb, who has a legit shot in here; nice to see Maldonado stays and returning to this longer distance figures to help; though whether it helps enough is another matter.

Heat Du Jour

Comes off some nice races this summer/fall including 2 wins, both on turf; of course, those came vs. Cal-breds only whereas today she has to deal with open foes; at least she comes here sharp and seemingly the light has gone on for her after a pretty rocky start to her career; still, it's a tougher spot so she likely needs another move forward if she's to get anything more than a minor piece of the pie.

Marcyjane

Came back after 5 months and won 2 straight routing on turf at DMR, both over Cal-breds; then tried open foes at SA Oct. 11 but was sluggish early and never got involved; good to see no panicky drop by Jones and while she's never raced here she handled the other 2 SoCal turf courses well so odds are she'll handle this place, too.

Miss Well Molded

Just love the way she won at SA at this trip Oct. 10; yes, those were $32K claimers so she's up in class today, but remember they thougth enough of her to try a stakes down the hill at SA in March; not only did she win easily Oct. 10 but O'Neill saw fit to claim her (23% off a claim) and it's most encouraging he brings her back WITHOUT a tag attached; oh, and that win looks better when you note 2 she beat that day came right back to win; proven here, too, as she won on this course 11 months ago.

Smooth Talker

Some good work in the spring/summer, including a big, big maiden win over this course at this trip July 4; it's been a mixed bad in 3 tries vs. winners but in 2 of them she didn't run badly at all; returns to the course where she freaked July 4 with no panicky drop and a real snappy 5f work here Oct. 28 (:59.40, 2nd fastest of 47 that day); oh, but for a better draw....

Race 8

Big G Secret Crab

Even after the decent second at Pomona, fans backed off big time to the tune of 43-1 and they knew what they were doing; she may have to be hard used to flee the fence and avoid getting shuffled; backers can point to the fact there is a 5-time minor league winner in the family; she lost ground 2 back going 2 furlongs shorter; not good.

Lovely in Laguna

She has yet to raise a gallop; 2 for 13 dam banked less than a grand a start; hard to see the expectations being all that high since she only cost a grand; needs a total reversal of fortune.

Harlan's Trick

One of her better efforts was here when beaten just over 3; homebred did get a boost when the place horse 7/13 graduated next out in this league and then took a $40K starter with a 77 Beyer; lack of speed a concern as bug takes the reins; wraps added in last, try to get a good look at her on the track.

Full of Spice

Miss could be more relaxed and aware of surroundings as the blinkers come off; note she flashed sub :22 zip in the debut; but she was handled by the Garcia charge that day; backers should get at least a brief thrill.

Consent

She has had her chances and has yet to hit the board; both siblings won but neither was special; hard to be thrilled about her the way she raised the white flag so early in last; looking elsewhere for a key top horse.

Renegade Ride

Overmatched in the first pair, she appears to be approaching her proper level; stakes placed 3 for 10 dam banked nearly $160K; this is her first to race; forced 3 deep from the marooned slot; this miss is live.

Secret Memo

Youngster dropped after the career Beyer just over a year ago and has not been able to duplicate that figure since; show horse in the DMR finale graduated next out at this level, then took a $12.5K N2L seller with a 58 figure; connections wouldn't mind if she starts to perform like top kin, 9-race winner and $160K earning sibling Grandanna; must at least be left in the exotic picture.

Truly Awesome

Nice move to get within a length of the lead and the light seems to be going on a bit; dam was unraced; this is her first to run; she did take a nice leap on the drop last time; can't fault those that project another move forward.

Teasing Moment

Shades off, but the were also for her career worst Beyer; she has lost ground in the drive in her last 3 efforts; one angle to think about: this rider was aloft when miss posted the career best Beyer.

Amanda

Back to Talamo but she has runner on the extreme outside to deal with among others; she has a shot to mature with grace as half bro Nacho Business did take a stakes and banked over $100K; rates legit look in this ordinary field.

Rich in Tradition

It's just hard to find the upside after 17 defeats; miss opened the year with a solid effort vs. tougher, but has not been able to repeat that figure; not my kind of play.

Katey Pie

Drawn right, career top Beyer in the resume, and note she was bumped at the break to boot in last; she has a chance to get better with age as half bro Proud Charm was stakes placed at 4 and earned nearly $200K; just may be a good thing in just another race.