Betfair Hollywood: Closer Looks for November 30, 2013

Race 1

Designer

Field-best Beyer speed figure pre-rest for a high-percentage long-layoff trainer; lone win when stalking a hot pace which is the type of trip projected for this; should be able to save ground from this inside draw then hopes to wear down the speed.

Congregationalist

Only victory occurred right on the engine and will have to fend off Lucky Cotton and Proud Boss early then Designer late; did not his show off his gate speed in latest loss over the track while a negative rider change on tap; the 2-back winner repeated with a 92 Beyer taking a next-out BHP-16K claimer next out.

Tribe

Likely sits midpack then makes 1 run in a race top heavy with pace; has not raced on synthetic in 2013 but graduated on today's BHP all-weather strip at today's distance more than 1 year ago; 5-0-0-0 record since his career-best turf Beyer on SA green; the 3-back runner-up Beyered 83 taking an SA-starter alw. event next out.

Lucky Cotton

Lone win was right on the lead and will be fighting to make the front here; main knock is that he returns to a synthetic surface where in 2 losses he did not defeat 1 runner; the 3-back runner-up and show finishers Beyered 89-83 in next-out SA-starter alw. and DMR-optional-claiming wins.

Nome

No gate speed when winning and hopes for a pace meltdown up top; won his debut with blinkers and the hood is back on off the long layoff; the winner from last repeated in a DMR alw. with a 91 Beyer; the 2-back show runner posted an 86 speed figure taking a BHP-25K claimer next out.

Proud Boss

Dueled for the front when winning and figures as a major-pace presence for this; horse for the course graduating here in last while in June over today's BHP oval posted a career-best Beyer at 2F longer than this; has not raced this short since the debut in April but cutting back in distance figures to help the cause.

Warren's Tyler S.

His victory was rallying from 10 lengths back at the 1st call and figures to close from last today trying to nail the speed; main concern is his 5-0-0-0 synthetic record and latest dull loss while 2-back was his best try on dirt; reunites with the 3-back rider where he faded on dirt but this pilot seemingly had other options in this event; off latest would be a surprise.

Race 2

Royal Banker (GB)

Colt didn't get a great trip in the debut but was on the muscle in the victory; dam could run; she was a 2 for 2 racer and a Group 1 winner; interesting that Nakatani ends up here instead of on the stakes winner; this guy looks live.

Ontology

Connections have always been high on this guy as he has been given his chances against stakes foes; class is there on the bottom side as dam won 4 times on grass, banked over $300K; has some things to iron out.

Persisting

Grand Slam has hit with about 11% of his first-time turfers in a 534-horse sample; precocious sire took debut at 2, earned just under a million, was 2nd in only turf out; dam took 2 routes, never turfed; 2 of 3 siblings won including 2 for 2 racer, Grade 2 winner and over $100K earner Thunder Moccasin; this is a huge jump up after getting beat for a tag.

Global View

Educated in the debut, won professionally on the tricky hillside; love the series of drills since the maiden breaker and considering he was freshened, runner had a chance to mature; respect everything from this barn.

Aotearoa

Note he acted up in that second start and he kind of got lost in the big field last time; he proved the talent winning the turf bow; could see gelding sitting a nice stalk and pounce trip; must be given valid look in all the slots.

Pablo Del Monte

Giant's Causeway about 9% with first-time turfers and in a 539-runner sample; sire won juvenile debut by 7, took multiple Group 1 races, took 9 of 13 on grass as a turf monster; precocious dam won on grass once; this is her first to race; like the way he extended in both of the wins; Ward is very good with young horses; could be long gone with lonely lead.

Race 3

Money Cannon

First Samurai gelding is 3-for-9 on dirt and 0-for-3 on synthetics, possibly the reason trainer Adam Kitchingham shipped him to Arizona after winning two at Santa Anita. Second in a fast race at Turf Paradise and ships back to California to give Cushion Track a shot. Big rider change to Maldonado, who is 29 per cent with a $2.87 ROI for this barn.

Derringer

Last victory was on this track May 18, but has regressed in his last two and trainer Mike Mitchell drops the 3-year-old to half of his $50,000 purchase price. Pressed a fast pace in last and Talamo no doubt will try for the lead against this softer crew. Trainer, rider click at 20 per cent.

Botch

Wasn't beaten that badly against similar company October 18 and has several good works since, including a :59 November 17. Trainer having a fine year with 19 per cent winners and is a solid 15 per cent when he uses Sutherland-Kruse. First try on Cushion Track today.

Kafister

Won at a higher level under this rider at the Pomona Fair, then fizzled out when raised to $40,000 November 17. Fits better in this spot and trainer Ron Ellis is a fine 20 per cent second time off a layoff. One of many contenders in a wide-open field.

Too Fast to Pass

Gave way in the Pomona Derby September 21 and was put on the vet's list October 9. Worked for the vet October 30, the first of four drills leading up to this race. Trainer has good stats (21 per cent, $3.63 ROI) moving from route to sprint and it's important to note that the With Distinction gelding ran well for Espinoza in his previous two starts.

One Firm Cat

Took up at the half-mile November 17, but remained in last the entire trip. Sharp third against similar one back and retreats to that level for this. Ran well for Nakatani here during the Spring/Summer meeting. Big question mark after his last despite the class drop.

Tahoe Flash

In the mix when fourth for $40,000 last out. Right there at or around this level in his two previous and could bounce back today for Agapito Delgadillo, who has a flat-bet profit over the last two years when riding for Jeff Bonde. Trainer doing well this meet, winning five of his first 18.

Major Truth

Slight improvement in his second start back, but still several lengths behind Kafister and Tahoe Flash. Dropping a peg, but has a three-week gap in his works between October 13 and November 3. Broke his maiden on Cushion Track two days short of a year ago.

Race 4

Savings Account

Between horses to kick it off, hung wide down the hill from marooned slot and the gameness was on display for all to see in last; dam was a stakes winner and a winner on grass; could see her sitting a nice trip, maybe 3 or so off a live pace; backers have to hope the speed comes back.

Sushi Empire

Over 3 clear and Beyers going in the right direction; not easy to separate this gal and the rail; this miss may offer better value and she did pick up lengths late in both of the turf outs; rider bails for the runner coming out of the sprint; not impossible chore.

Clenor (IRE)

The experience she brings to the party could show up and expand at crunch time today; hung wide BC Day and once this gal was sent long, she started to thrive; the best case scenario could be if Nesso and Ransom hook up and duel; with a trip like that, this miss could settle, save ground, the come running in the last furlong; major player.

Love In The Desert (GB)

New game going long, but she wasn't disgraced in the Group 3 in July; she will not be intimidated by this field as she faced bigger crews in Europe; wonder if connections had this race in mind all the time?; don't ignore.

Nesso

There are some stamina issues; this race is a far cry from winning at 4 and a half furlongs; handled easily by the O'Neill runner repeatedly and that must be addressed; trainer tries to get her to relax as the blinks come off; could see her rolling early, you just get the feeling if she is looked in the eye, she'll blink; still must be caught.

Full Ransom

Hung wide at the beach from the outside slot; she got a nice ride with moderate splits in last; pace figures to be faster here; the tricky thing for the rider here may be to try to stay close enough to Nesso early and not expend too much to hold off all the rest of them; could see him sitting a clever 2-hole run; respect.

Race 5

Even to the Moon

The 3-back DMR show finish represents a field-best Beyer speed figure; since removing blinkers has been dull fading over the track 1st time on today's BHP oval in last; rider of latest went 0-for-30 to start the meet and is 1-for-45 since 2012 for the trainer.

Brando the Birdman

Promising-debut effort when rallying well over the track; can't help but think a sharper gate break and 2nd-time out improvement will make him a tough customer to hold off today despite the class hike to MSW company; improved worktab on display adds to the appeal for the one to beat.

Sir Vronski

Sire is 3-for-21 with 2-year-old debut runners; is the 1st foal out of a 2-for-8 dam (30K); has been working like a runner on both dirt and synthteic surfaces for a high-percentage 1ster trainer.

Lucky Jack

Sire is 1-for-11 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a SW dam (8-for-24, 669K) who produced 4 winners from 5 other foals to race including 146K-earning stakes winner Super Ability (3-for-6); been working like he will fire a huge one at 1st asking.

Lucky J Lane

Sire is 1-for-11 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 10-for-30 dam (140K) who produced 2 winners from 2 other foals to race including 1-for-4 Dancinconestrellas (11K); trainer has a super-win mark 1st-time out but has been outworked by the two other 1sters for this.

He's a Real Keeper

Ran to the 84-1 debut odds although passed some runners on dirt; the trainer's 0-for-27 record with synthetic-surface starters does not add to the appeal 1st time on this type of surface while a 7-week absence suggests he will likely need a race to see best form.

Scamalot

Claimed off the heavily-bet debut defeat when tiring at shorter than this; hopes the 2nd-time out improvement includes a stamina upgrade; has been working nicely on synthetic for this while the barn's 30% win mark in the 1st start off the purchase suggests to list him as a speedy contender for win honors.

This Cat's Awesome

Favored-debut defeat when rallying well over today's BHP oval; right back in the entry box less than 2 weeks for a 1-for-16 second-start trainer since 2012; breaking outside again helps the cause as some inexperienced runners do not like to be bogged down inside; offers tons of upside off that debut effort; the pick.

Race 6

Kessabtsi

He's making his first start since early April and without the prospect of a slow early pace this is likely going to prove to be a tough spot for his return to action; runner-up from latest returned to win next-out here on 5/26 going 1m over turf vs. N1X rivals with an 84 Beyer.

Shoer Hugh

Sire has won with 2 of 15 (13%) turf starters and dam was unraced; he brings a good deal of early speed with him, and his latest outing was the sharpest performance of his career, but turf and distance are concerns.

Volkonsky

He has a nice pedigree for turf and he's been a pretty consistent performer in his six turf starts; he finished behind a couple of today's rivals in his latest outing but this gelding does appear to be heading in the right direction for the third start of his current form cycle.

Surf N Ski

He ran pretty well in his one start over turf prior to this but it is worth noting that he benefited from a slow early pace that day, and the early pace in this race figures to be lively; leaning toward others.

Brown Boss

Have to respect his chances against these based on what he's shown in his three turf attempts and he finished right behind one of today's key rivals in Turn On the Pumps in his latest outing; he's being reunited with Talamo who was aboard for his Beyer Speed Figure top back in August.

Prospector's Trick

Lightly raced 3-year-old is going to need to step it up along the Beyer Speed Figure scale while meeting up with winners for the first time in order to contend; this has a chance to prove to be a tough spot for him to make his first start out of the maiden ranks.

Soul Candy

Have to be at least mildly concerned when seeing that this G3 stakes placed veteran hasn't been on top of his game in recent starts, but if he can reproduce one of his better efforts, he'll be tough to tackle.

Turn On the Pumps

Son of strong turf influence Kitten's Joy has to be viewed in the light of a contender against these, but when considering him for the top spot, keep in mind that this gelding has won just once from 16 career starts, and he hasn't been shy about settling for runner-up finishes; maybe the addition of blinkers can help him along.

Apollo Ten

Tenpins has been a poor influence as a turf sire and this gelding will have to show up with a performance that is much sharper than what he's shown in his two turf attempts prior to this if he's to contend.>

Race 7

Mauco

Adds blinkers trying to turn the tables on Pray Hard; the 2nd-time out Beyer speed figure regression is not a great sign 1st time over the BHP oval; the improved workouts suggest we may see a different runner with the new hood on; the way he rallied in first pair 6F may be a little too short to win it all.

Toosmartbyhalf

Sire is 16-for-93 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 1-for-3 dam (16K) who produced 3 winners from 3 other foals to race including 51K-earner Blade Scuffler (4-for-31); has been working steadily for a 12%-winning debut trainer.

Pray Hard

Going to be a tough customer if races back to latest a field-best Beyer speed figure performance over the track at longer; favored in 3 of the 4 defeats and figures heavily backed again for this; worktab does not bowl you over but looms a major player from bell to finish for this.

Cinematic Cat

Ran to the 67-1 debut odds when outrun early then was passed late on dirt; switches to a synthetic surface in need of a stamina upgrade; wish the SA post-race workout was more snappier for this noting most runners move forward 2nd-time out.

Synnin

Sire is 31-for-202 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 5-for-13 SW dam (171K) who's only other foal to race is full Tribal Syn (3-0-0-0, 6K); mixed reviews from the worktab but some of the morning drills were very sharp for this.

Oh Billy Billy

Sire is 16-for-170 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 9-for-17 dam (136K) who produced 5 winners from 5 other foals to race including 1M-earner G1 Cost of Freedom (16-for-46); high-percentage 1ster barn and solid worktab make him a major player at 1st asking.

Cousin Ricky

Sire is 0-for-16 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 4-for-34 dam (127K) who's only other foal to race is 2-0-0-0 Golden Mary; winning-debut trainer adds to the appeal but has been outworked by several of the other debut runners here.

Prince of Paris

Leaps up in class off that maiden-claiming loss; was outrun in the debut suggesting more distance than 6F would be needed to see very-best form; worked well for this hoping for a dramatic 2nd-time out improvement; sizzling-BHP barn adds to the appeal.

Race 8

U S Citizen

This is a very competitive gathering but this colt commands respect as a top contender based on his sharp and consistent form; the rail post at this trip can be tricky, but as long as he can benefit from a little bit of racing luck, he figures to be right in the hunt through the final furlong.

Brokered

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and dam won once from 12 starts for 43k, including 1 of 5 turf starts for 25k; this gelding is a 1/2 to Tatum Tot (3-9, 95k over turf); runner up from latest won next out here on 5/3 going 1 1/16m vs. 80k OPC's with a 108 Beyer.

Follini

This colt has a bit of quality to his pedigree and he's proven to be a tough one to beat to the early lead; however, it does appear that he's likely going to feel heavy pace pressure from He's a Dance Star; runner up from latest won next out at BSR on 9/14 going 6f vs. 40k OPC's with a 91 Beyer.

D' Obsession

Don't like to see that he wasn't at his best in his two most recent races, but if he can regain the turf form that he displayed earlier in the year, he can prove to be a legitimate threat in this spot; a couple of sharp looking recent workouts might be a positive indicator.

He's a Dance Star

This veteran brings a high degree of early speed with him, and from 11 turf starts, he hasn't finished worse than third; there is some concern when seeing that he might get hooked up with Follini through the opening stages, but he clearly commands respect as a top contender.

Insideondoutside

Have to respect the level of form that he's displayed in his last five starts and it's interesting to see that he's making his first start after a claim for a barn that does very well with turf sprinters; not going to be at all surprised to see this gelding give a good account of himself against these.

Willyconker (IRE)

Grade 1 winning veteran is making his first start in a turf sprint since about this time a year ago, and it is worth noting that he ran very well in that race; maybe the 40k price tag is a reason to be concerned, but it's tough to count this horse-for-course out of it.

Scorcher

Like to see that he regained some of his better form with a sharp runner-up performance in his latest outing, but this looks like it can prove to be a tough step up in class for him; it might be worth noting the presence of Maldonado aboard another in here.

Crimson Giant

He has just a single victory after 40 career starts and he's 0-for-21 over turf; there is nothing in his recent form to suggest that he's about to step up and threaten the top contenders in this spot.

Race 9

Cook Inlet

Mark Glatt playing the claiming game like a poker professional with the Candy Ride gelding. Claimed him for $16,000 October 11, came back at the same price and scored a sensational victory with a career best 90 Beyer, and now drops in for $12,500. Joe Steiner subs for Bejarano, who is in New York to ride Goldencents in the Cigar Mile.

Go to the Pulpit

Was a vet scratch October 11 and returned three weeks later with a poor effort in a $10,000 starter allowance. Picked up his training lately and ran well for this tag one race back. Only victory this year was against $8,000 claimers at Turf Paradise.

Gilligan

Just up for this tag on the Golden Gate Fields turf November 2, defeating next out winners Royal Dream and Very Elusive. Six-year-old has compiled 14 career victories, four of them at Betfair Hollywood Park. Speed figures are marginal, but it's dangerous to dismiss a horse that wants to win so badly.

Danderek (GB)

Has run seven times in the U.S., all on turf. Four-level class drop by Hollendorfer is a bit distressing, considering he was claimed for substantially more five races back. Did run on synthetics in his native England, where he went 7 2-1-1.

Bank the Eight

Once stakes caliber, but is winless in eight starts this year and hasn't really been competitive. Dropping yet again, and horses with this downward type spiral rarely right the ship. Seems a shadow of the horse who won a year ago on this track with a 109 Beyer.

Majestic Moment

Haltered in last two, most recently by Victor Garcia, who has won six of his last 10 first off a claim with a $6.92 ROI. Hasn't won since February and was nearly 10 lengths behind Graeme Crackerjack November 7. Needs a fast race to set up his late change but may not get it today.

Senator Bob

Set brisk fractions, then had little left for the drive, finishing six back of Cook Inlet. The likely pacesetter again, however the 6-year-old hasn't won in more than two years and is 0-for-4 on Cushion Track. Drops again for O'Neill, but Maldonado does ride back.

Graeme Crackerjack

Much better percentage (5 2-1-0) on Cushion Track than any other main track (19 2-2-4). Ran down front runner Red Sharp Humor opening day of the Autumn meeting, earning a career high 91 Beyer. Double jumps in class for Jeff Bonde, but use caution--a huge effort like that often results in regression next out.

Russel's Run

Has run well on Cushion Track (2 1-1-0), however both races were around one turn. Distance within his reach, as evidenced by a victory in a turf miler at Santa Anita in March. Peter Miller claimed the Expressionist gelding for $16,000 October 24 and wheels him back for $12,500. Look for more speed, but the outside hampers his chances.

Race 10

Alsace

The good news is his best race was here; the bad news is he had has his chances and has not been able to get the sheepskin; runner has more speed than he just flashed; Couton got a chance to figure him out; not sold on chances.

Soul Saver

He's had his opportunities; last race came back okay as the 10th finsher won for this price at GG and the winner repeated in a $40K starter; barely off the rail, he s been handled by a couple of today s rivals; looking elsewhere for a key top horse.

Mary Helen's Storm

The extended layoff is a concern; he does have the three races to draw from now and note he exited the live fray three back; fit enough to at least drill 8 days ago; overdue.

Copote's Royalty

Homebred must be given valid look on the drop alone; dam 0 for 3; lone full sister was 2nd in best result; in good hands, new bug takes the reins; don t sell too short.

America Rising

The is the speed component of the Koriner runners; he s been around the line a few times; runner has natural speed and may show even more with the blinks; runner was almost 4 clear in last but never thrilled to see the beats in Pomona; will at least muddle the pace.

Mateo

Only a brief threat when freezing on the tote; dam 0 for 2; both siblings one, top earner banked nearly $35K; there are some stamina issue here; would be careful here.

Julie's Beloved

Apparently not much of a work horse; 10 for 28 dam banked over $150K; one of 3 siblings won; that runner took 2 of 4, earned nearly $40K; not sure what to make of the drill last Sunday; hard to adore.

On Holy Ground

Not sure how you spin this form in the right direction; he has not lost 28 times because he has a heart of gold; spotty race record is a legit concern; not my kind of play.

Magic Daddy

Beaten chalk in 2 of 3 and Baffert usually doesn t dabble with runners of this caliber; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; he catches a pretty weak field; he may not get an easier chance to graduate.

World Famous Sam T

Misty'sgoldentouch 0 for 3 with debuters; sire took debut at 2, won 8 times in the minor leagues; 1 for 4 dam banked nearly $30K; lone sibling to race was just one for 15; homebred may need one.

Grand Gambler

More experienced pilot hired today; the only time he didn t lose ground in the lane was in the Pomona effort; a slice may be the ceiling here.

What a Journey

Gelding had beaten one horse going into the last race; he blew out okay on the 17th but he can be his own worst enemy with zero speed; may need a circuit switch to show ability.

Alpha Bullet

Unraced Kitalpha 5 for 35 with firsters; dam 0 for 2; 2 of 3 siblings won; top kin Seeking Sheba took 3 of 21, banked over $160K; rates legit glance if he rolls.

Trando's Tremor

This is a tough sell; when a runner is off for nearly 2 full years, there is really not a warm place to go; he does have some semblance of speed and could see him pressing the pace, not sure he will be around at the end.