Betfair Hollywood: Closer Looks for November 29, 2013

Race 1

Regal Randy

Legitimate excuse to that first defeat while going to post at huge odds; his sire won 464K including G1 success while the dam was unraced; there are no winning siblings to mention; inside slot may cause headaches again.

The Mad Hungarian

Hurt by the outermost post in his debut, he never got into the race; see the previous runner for same sire information; the dam won 1 of 11 attempts and 67K; winning siblings include 69K earner Ore Pass.

Zackos My Man

Offspring of Tannersmyman, who won 4 of 9 and 99K, have scored in 10 of 81 initial appearances; the dam lost her only race and this is her sole foal to make it to the starting gate; shows only an average work tab for the most part.

Mosso

Sheds the blinkers after failing to achieve an exacta finish thus far; ran well for this price tag at this oval near the beginning of his career and the workout tab this month shows much improvement; worth some inclusion.

Warrensgoldenyears

His sire went zero for 4 lifetime (progeny of Affirmative are only 1 for 43 as far as winning their first assignment); the dam won 1 of 7 and 18K; among the winning siblings is 28K earner Warren's Rock.

Head South

Flashed brief speed in his maiden voyage against better stock than this; his sire won multiple G2s and 715K while the dam won 2 of 8 and 136K; winning siblings include 94K earner Whisper Tothesouth; not out of the question by any means.

Charisma Code

Respectable local showing earlier this month when aided by fast early splits; makes only his second career start for a tag and should be flying late again if there is the proper pace set-up; obvious true contender but another short price is certain.

Race 2

Shackbamalama

He exits a key race; the eight-place finisher, One World, came back in his next start to take a $4K conditioned claimer at GG with a Beyer Figure of 57, and the 10th-place finisher, Suances Candy, another $4K claimer at GG, with a Beyer of 66; was making move from two turns to one for last start and might be closer to the pace in his second straight race at one turn.

Tale Be Told

Closer needs pace to fuel his run and it's a bit difficult to predict whether he'll get the right kind of tempo in this spot; suspect he could be a little closer to the pace as he exits a quick race, and perhaps fresh horses Big Man in Town and Hollywood Heist, as well as the sharp-working Tribal Smoke, will make for some fireworks up front; tough call.

Big Man in Town

He is giving up recency to most all of these as he will be making his first start since August 2012; tough to expect one to be on top of their game after being on the sidelines for more than a year, but do like his works for his return; he's also been flattered since his last, with eighth-place finisher Dramaticat returning in his next start to win a $20K maiden claimer at Fpx with a Beyer Figure of 61, and 10th-place finisher Buds Pal, at the same level at Fpx, with a Beyer of 64; one to preview in the paddock.

Judge Carr

He's appealing for the fact that he's been a popular claim, a desired runner among horsemen; shortens up a tad in distance here on the move from seven-eighths to six furlongs, and note his maiden win came at this distance; will add blinkers, which is a high percentage move for Treece; as runner who can be closer to the pace than some of these, he might have a tactical advantage; win candidate.

Tribal Smoke

He has more natural speed than a number of these and that might give him a tactical advantage; and while he is turning back from a mile, like that he won his debut in a six-furlong race, going wire-to-wire; he also has worked sharply for what will be his first start since mid-October; further, he has been facing steeper; leading contender.

Turn On the Brites

He shortened up some in distance last out and ran well, missing by a half-length against the $12.5K conditioned claiming crowd; might be even sharper in his second straight start at the distance, and could get an ideal tracking trip from his outside post; despite step up in class he appears to be a win candidate.

Hollywood Heist

He gives up recency to all of these as this will be his first race since June 2012; he was fifth against steeper in his last start, and the race ended up becoming a key one, with the runner-up returning to take a $25K conditioned claimer at Dmr, with a Beyer Figure of 81, and the fourth-place finisher, Magic Beam, a $16K conditioned claimer, also at Dmr, with a Beyer of 76; comebacker is one to preview in the paddock.

Race 3

Regally Soul

Razor sharp in August and September, but was derailed against a much better field November 8 on Cushion Track. Off the board in his only try on turf, but that was at one mile. Dropping in class and may deserve another shot at this distance. Drilled a slow half in :52 4/5 November 22, which is a bit unsettling as he's usually a better work horse.

Carbonite

Seems to have lost a step as he approaches his eighth birthday. Entered 2013 with 10 victories from 20 starts, but has managed a single win from eight outings this year. Noteworthy that John Sadler puts Victor Espinoza back on. Espinoza was up for the gelding's last three wins.

Trelawny

Game victory down the hill October 12 and taken for $25,000 by Ed Moger. Has finished first or second in 19 of 33, but only two of his nine wins have been on turf. Bullet 5-furlong work in :59 3/5 November 9 is a plus, as is the addition of veteran rider Corey Nakatani.

Kingpin Ryno

His 22nd start marks his first time in a claiming race. May have needed his last when eighth to course specialist Et Tu Walker, and this trainer is two for his last seven with a $3.66 ROI second time off a layoff. The In Excess gelding is 3-for-8 on other turf courses and 0-for-9 at Betfair Hollywood Park.,

Dixieland Blues

Stopped to a walk and vanned off following the California Flag Stakes October 19. Upset $40,000 optional claimers at Del Mar in his previous start and does have a victory on the local lawn. Worked four times since his last in typically easy Marty Jones fashion. Could rebound on the drop.

Koast

Versatile runner started his career with a bang, but never could take that next step. The John Sadler trainee always gives his best and may have found his class level with a gritty victory for $32,000 October 31. Bejarano has been in the saddle for two of the Lawyer Ron colt's four victories and has terrific numbers (31 per cent) for this barn.

Candy's Sunrise

Makes his first start in a claimer since defeating $40,000 maidens at Del Mar in July 2012. Recent stuff has been subpar, though he did encounter some late trouble November 3. Doug O'Neill has been using Saul Arias more and more recently. The pair have combined to win 19 per cent over the last two years.

Mr. Bossy Pants

This grey 7-year-old simply wants to beat you. The only bad race he's thrown in in more than two years was the result of a troubled trip. Comes off a heartbreaking defeat to Koast last out, but has still won half of his 10 starts this year. Overall, the Robertino Diodoro trainee is 24 11-3-5.

Race 4

Warren's My Queen

She's lost 34 times and her most recent try over the local main track was pretty poor; barn has won just once this year and there's not much to suggest this gal is close to moving them up in the win column; have to pass on this longshot.

Speedy Vixen

She's another who has had plenty of chances but she's actually earned some minor awards of late; exits a quick Santa Anita sprint and maybe chasing those gals sharpened her lick while moving to an inside slot for the stretchout; she earned numbers over the track earlier in the year that fit pretty well in this spot and if she gets back to them could well have a say in the outcome in this weak gathering.

Perfect Tango

Lightly raced filly gets back to synthetic footing and she unleashed a nice late run over this type of surface first out at Del Mar this summer; her initial route try last month wasn't terrible and her distance pedigree is certainly strong enough to warrant her another crack at the 2 turn trip.

Gin Jan Lizzie

Runner up at a big price first time going long at the level came from out of the clouds to get the placing in that slow heat; maybe she moves forward second time routing but there's not a lot of pace in here and several of these have run a lot faster than she has thus far; her ceiling looks to be a minor award.

Lovely in Laguna

Sophomore hasn't done much of anything while sprinting thus far and now she'll try the route; she's the first foal to race out of a foreign dam but her sire was a G2 SW going long so maybe the added ground helps her show more; still, she's got some moving forward to do in order to factor in this spot.

Nezi O's Gold

She's got early foot and it should be on display from the bell on the stretch back out in here; mare did give it up rather willingly but the gal who won that heat was a subsequent repeater and her effort 3 back going long at Fresno wasn't bad.

Rsweet Serendipity

Improved when stretched back out here with shades added a couple of weeks back; filly showed some solid tracking foot in that one and now she'll switch to a solid journeyman pilot; barn doesn't win too often, but with just a handful of starts under her belt she may be worth a look.

U R My Candy Girl

She opened up a big early lead on the stretchout in her local return but quickly backed up when her rivals came to her in that last one; she hasn't been running as fast as she did earlier in the year but her try 2 back was solid and if she's able to settle early second time at this trip she could last longer.

Glad's Gals

Stretches out after a wide trip did her in on the Santa Anita main track; filly's poor breaking habits may not impact her much at this extended trip and her pedigree does suggest the added ground could move her up some; with a couple of sharp local drills in tow she may be set to take a good step foward in her return to synthetic footing; contender.

Kevin's Kool Kat

Beaten chalk in her last 2 is stuck in a wide slot for another shot at the level; she did have a viable excuse in her last and her prior couple of tries on dirt were good enough to put her right in the thick of this; may have found a field she's capable of bossing from out here; clean trip makes her the one to beat.

Race 5

Level Headed

BHP-turf graduate a little more than 1 year ago she has to get by Winning Rhythm who handled her 2-back on SA grass; her 3-back loss looks better since the runner-up finisher took an AP alw. next out with an 88 Beyer speed figure then repeated in a KEE alw. with a 75 Beyer.

Passionate Diva

Another who has to beat Winning Rhythm to score; been a new runner since defeated by that one 1st time in the USA in July when tiring at today's distance; stretches back out off the Mile-maiden breaker while the 1st start with winners is often any runner's toughest assignment.

Prettypriceygirl

75 days away since the dirt loss while BHP turf has been her best surface during career; winless without blinkers which are removed for this; the 2-back show finisher Beyered 79 in her next-out BSR-50K stakes win; biggest drawback is posting a 3-0-1-0 record since the July claim when purchased off a career-best Beyer.

Foxy Boss

62 days since beating just 1 runner home in an SA-optional claimer with her lowest Beyer since January; the 2-back winner when she posted a career-best speed figure at today's distance on BHP turf posted a 90 speed figure in her next-out BHP alw. win.

Sensationalize

Saved best for last when graduating at today's distance on BHP grass racing 1st time away from a Hall of Fame trainer; the win rider sides with Level Headed for this; the 2-back exacta finish looks better since the show runner Beyered 67 in her next-out AP-MSW graduation; gets a major-class test today facing winners for the 1st time.

Backintheacademy

75-day absence since outrun vs. Prettypriceygirl on dirt; did not show anything in her 2 turf defeats including the April GG loss vs. the winner who repeated in a GG-$12,500 claimer with a 73 Beyer; last win was off a similar freshening but when racing on a synthetic surface which has been her best oval.

Heat Du Jour

Win rider from last sides with Winning Rhythm; graduated at today's distance on DMR grass but in her 2-back loss to Journey On she middle moved and will need a well-timed ride to turn the tables; has been working well for this and hasn't run a bad race since July when sprinting with maidens.

Zanbo

Have to go back to March, 2012, to see a bad race on her form; reunites with the DMR Mile-graduation rider; was screaming out for more distance off the 60-day layoff and gets it here; winless on BHP turf is the major drawback about taking her on the win end for this.

Journey On

The one to catch off 2 gate-to-wire wins stretching out to her longest-distance test ever is the concern; field-best Beyer was posted on DMR synthetic sprinting; beat the August show runner a next-out 65 speed figure DMR-40K-maiden-claiming winner.

Smart N Dreamy

Has never raced this far claimed off a gate-to-wire win at shorter when beating the show runner who Beyered 71 in her next-out BHP-16K-claiming victory; was taken from a high-win percentage trainer which is not a good-win angle.

Moulin de Mougin

The way she rallied in last the added distance here should help the cause; she has not raced past 6.5F yet; sire was a Breeders' Cup Classic winner finishing 2nd in his only turf start at 11F; dam won at 1 Mile in grass producing G2-turf miler Schiaparelli; the 2-back loss looks better since the winner and show runners Beyered 94-93 in next-out SA-Grade 3 and optional-claiming wins.

Winning Rhythm

Reunites with the win rider who had several other options in this event; exits a career-best Beyer 7 weeks ago noting her win was off a much shorter 23-day break; beat the 3-back show finisher who Beyered 83 graduating next out in a DMR-MSW event; only must overcome the ground-losing post position to score.

High Jinks (BRZ)

Winless over one year with a 4-0-0-0 USA record; her 2 worst Beyers were her last 2 races which is not a good sign; the 2-back show runner Beyered 84 taking a next-out SA-optional claimer; new tactics in last when flashing gate speed but it did not produce an improved effort.

Race 6

Zuboff

Went 4-for-7 from May, 2012 to May, 2013, but hasn't hit the board in four starts since. Claimed for $25,000 three starts back by Peter Miller, who is now willing to lose the Good Journey gelding for $12,500. Used to have speed and if he shows it under new rider Martin Pedroza, he's got a chance in a race without much early zip.

Close to the Edge

Red-tagged for $40,000 April 26 and comes back seven months later for $12,500. Steady work tab since October 16, including a pair of 5 furlong drills in :59 and :59 4/5 from the gate. Still, with this pattern it may be best to use caution for his comeback race.

Hurry Home Clover

Has been facing restricted claimers lately with some success. This open $12,500 claimer is a more difficult spot, however his Beyer figures hold up well with these. Biggest negative is his record on Cushion Track (4-0-0-0). Biggest positive is the trainer-rider team (21 per cent, $2.54 ROI).

Sammy's a Runnin'

Only victory in the last two years was accomplished with the aid of an extremely fast pace. In most of his other races, he just picked up the pieces for a minor share. Winless in nine tries on Cushion Track, but he did finish in the money seven times, making him a live trifecta candidate.

Sandys Diamond

Overcame a trouble-filled trip to wallop a bottom-level field November 15. Looks like a timely claim by Doug O'Neill, as the Roman Ruler gelding has substantial back class. Gutierrez back aboard the 5-year-old, who has been first or second in half of his 16 starts.

Truelee Scrappin

No excuses for $16,000 November 9 and drops back to his purchase price of $12,500 for Jack Carava. Offered little resistance when challenged in his last two, but it's important to note that Bejarano takes the helm. Zero for seven this year, however, and it looks like the negatives outweigh the positives.

Dangerous Duo

Been away 16 months and returns with a slow work tab and a major class drop. Trainer has a poor record after extended layoffs (6 per cent) and this rider is winless with three mounts this year. Question of condition.

Muchos Besos

Off slowly and bumped from the rail last out, yet loomed a threat midstretch and finished a strong third to multiple winner Big Wags. Better post today and this $12,500 field is weaker than the $10,000 starter allowance he just faced. Solid work since ran and connections have shown a flat-bet profit over the last two years.

Guidopanzini

Three of his four victories have come on Cushion Track, including his last start, where he overcame trouble to win a photo. May be able to handle the one-level jump for a trainer who is enjoying a fine year (26 per cent).

Race 7

My Best Brother

He's proven that he can produce a competitive performance against competition of this caliber on his best day, but he is vulnerable to a fast early pace, and it does appear that he will feel some early pace pressure from the outside.

Summer Front

Multiple graded stakes winner can produce a very impressive final quarter mile on his best day and it does look like he will get a fast set of early splits to close into; he had a rough trip after breaking from post 13 when he was shipped to this venue last year, and going to look for him to give a strong account of himself in this spot.

He Be Fire N Ice

He became multiple graded stakes placed prior to taking a shot in the BC Mile and this late running type has to be considered a top contender against these; he figures to get a closer-friendly early pace scenario and he's a proven commodity racing over this turf course; must respect.

Big Bane Theory

His turf form has been solid, and he seems to keep improving with each passing start, but he does find himself in a very tough spot while meeting up with graded stakes competition again; third place finisher from latest returned to win next out here on 11/9 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 62k OPC's with a 93 Beyer.

Bio Pro

Son of top turf influence War Front has taken his game to another level in his recent starts and his fine positional speed usually helps him manage a very comfortable trip; have to respect his chances after making it look easy in recording a stakes win in his latest outing, a race that saw him get the better of today's rival My Best Brother.

Bright Thought

It's probably best to just give him the benefit of the doubt for the effort that he showed up with in the BC Mile, and his three starts over turf prior to that were plenty strong enough to give him the look of a top contender in this spot; however, he is an early speed type who might find himself contesting a fast early pace.

Silentio

This colt hasn't run a bad race in his career and he ran a tremendous race in the BC Mile in his latest outing when finishing close behind Wise Dan; in a race that figures to have a fast and contested early pace, look for this colt to sit out the early running and gear up for a serious stretch bid; obvious threat.

Winning Prize (ARG)

He dominated multiple graded stakes winner Chips All In in his first start in America two races ago, and he was very good in a G1 at Keeneland in his latest outing after that race was taken off the turf; there is some concern with regard to the shape of this race playing against him, but he must be respected as a top contender.

Race 8

Say Ow

Blossomed this winter/spring, enough so that Julio shipped him to MNR for the G2 West Va. Derby; OK, that didn't go so well, so he brought him home and tried the G2 Del Mar Derby; again, not so good; so, Julio opted to give him some time to regroup and the horse has responded with some super works; note, too, he's 2 for 2 on this track, though all of his success has come routing - we're sprinting today.

Hadfunlastnight

3rd to the eventual G1 BC Sprint hero, Secret Circle, in a sprint at SA Oct. 14, albeit a well-beaten 3rd (8 1/4 lengths); still, this guy is plenty quick as he dueled through sizzling splits that day; note, too, his best work has actually come on synthetic (5 of his 7 wins) and 2 big recent bullet works say he comes here feeling good.

American Act

Looked like a comer for Carava in early 2012; alas, after being sidelined 10 months he hasn't looked quite the same; in fact, since the layoff he's 0 for his last 8 with just 1 2nd, and that came routing; at least has done some good work on this track (G3 SP) and after a few routes maybe returning to a sprint and this main track can get him back on his game...maybe.

Heir Kitty

Filly faces the boys; it nearly worked for her as a 2yo as she was 2nd in the G2 Best Pal, but that's a much tougher task now that the boys have grown up; comes off a couple dull turf tries and returning to this footing may help; after all, her last win came on this track just about a year ago and she's been working sharply over this track of late; all that being said, she is facing some tough boys and likely needs to run a race she hasn't run yet in order to win this.

Atta Boy Pete

Set a hot pace and stayed on for 3rd in a fast race here Nov. 7; winner of that race, Cyclometer, came back to run 2nd in the On Trust here last weekend; very nice work since and while there's other speed signed up he may be the quickest; and even if he gest outrun early, note some good work from just off the pace, so that versatility can be might handy from this outside slot.

Race 9

Loan Savant

Cleverly named runner from the Cashcall barn, at least miss got a feel of the turf game in last; the 9/27 place horse graduated next out at this level with a 78 Beyer, then ran a distant second in the $100K Sharp Cat here; 2 of 3 siblings won; both won at 2 including a debut winner that earned nearly $130K; one kin won once on grass; off a career Beyer but probably needs to improve to cash here.

Madame Heat

She has been a bad actress at the gate; dam took one dirt sprint as an older horse; several multiple race winners in the family; none won at 2 but full bro Mr. Chairman took Cal Cup Classic, won thrice on grass, banked nearly $350K; look for her late if at all.

Inherit the Throne

Limited turf data on Time to Get Even; Grade 3 winning sire didn t run at 2 or on turf, banked $150K; dam took debut at 2, earned about $60K, never turfed; all 5 siblings, 4 won at 2, this is the first that tried grass; she only beat one the other time at this level.

See Through

Two solid drills since promising debut on the tricky hillside; winning dam dropped 3 others, all won; one won at 2, two won on grass including over $100K earner Katrina s Prince; miss has some upside to her.

Elite Eight

Maybe she just didn't care for the synthetic at the beach; stakes winning dam won at 2, banked over $200K, and won 4 times on turf; family is solid; all 6 siblings won; one won at 2; 2 cashed on grass including 6 for 8 turf performer and over $200K earner Grandma s Rules; like the way she was finishing and the extra distance could be just what the good doctor ordered.

Stormin Norma

Was under restraint up north and was not prepared to break in last; dam lost 4 times at 2, was one for 17, the win came by a head in the bushes of England in an about a mile race on turf run in 1:41.30; 2 of 4 siblings won; neither won at 2 but three-time winner Temple s Door banked over $165K, was grass only; would tread lightly here.

Kitten de Pere

Had eventful trip when taking fair share of action; dam out of the money 3 times; both siblings won once but neither won at 2 or on grass; stablemate seems more potent at this point.

Kazam

No reason she will not improve after splitting cast to kick it off; dam was unraced; 2 of 3 sibs won but neither won at 2 or on grass; fit enough to at least drill a couple of times since the debut; can't be counted out.

Galehorn

Not sure she was facing anybody in the Delaware finale; the winner that day returned to run horrible at 88-1 in a Grade 3 in New York; winner of the debut repeated in a $32K Calder starter with a 69 Beyer; 1 for 13 dam cashed on grass as older horse; 1 of 4 siblings won; that runner was 2nd in best result at 2, won twice on grass, banked over $60K; this seems like a much better distance for her.

Practising (GB)

She nearly blew up the tote in the Sandown opener and lost heart breaker in last; dam out of the money in only try; this is her first to roll; interesting that Bejarano ends up here instead of on the horse he rode last time that will be saddled by a trainer that has sent out over 950 starters this year; look out.

Grammy Times Six

Montbrook has hit with about 4% of his first-time turfers in a 276-runner study; sire did not race at 2, won his debut at Laurel by 13 and a half lengths, won the Grade 3 Riva Ridge, never turfed; dam won once on dirt as older horse; all 8 siblings won; 3 cashed at 2; 3 won on grass and top kin Speak Logistics took a stakes, earned over $400K; with shades on, look for rider to send hard and try to steal it.

Parade Bound

Parading 0 for 3 with first-time turfers; sire didn t run at 2, took a Grade 2 banked over $500K, won 5 times on grass; dam didn t go at 2 but took 4 of 19, earned over $120K, won twice on grass; the sibling that won cashed 3 times on dirt as an older horse; probably needs maiden claimers to shine.