Betfair Hollywood: Closer Looks for November 22, 2013

Race 1

Candy Boy

Not only was the result of that route at SA Oct. 12 very nice (slow into stride, ran on well for 2nd) but it looks better when you note who he was chasing (Tap It Rich, highly promising Baffert 2yo who next ran 5th in the G1 BC Juvenile), finished well clear of 3rd (4 1/4 lengths) and got a nice Beyer; no surprise he routes being by a multiple G1 route SW and that bullet :59.80 move here Nov. 16 looks like a big thumbs-up, too; 1 of 2 sibs is winner Sharp Act (4 for 8, $25K).

Hoppertunity

Sire Any Given Saturday gets over 9% 2yo debut winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 6 of 11 for $1 million, won 5 routes including G1 Haskell, 2 G2s, also 3rd in G1 Wood; dam has 5 winners from 6 foals including Executiveprivilege (5 for 9, $963K, won G1 Del Mar Debutante, G1 Chandelier, 2nd in G1 BC Juvenile Fillies); dam won 3 of 13 for $114K, was G2 SP routing on turf; no easy feat to debut going long but Baffert's had success doing so (21%), he's bred for this and this $300K sales buy has plenty of works so there's a foundation.

Songforjohnmichael

Debut wasn't much but hey, it was just his debut so you can be forgiving; remember, too, it came routing at SA Oct. 12, from an impossible post (no. 10 going a mile); finished well behind a couple of today's foes but it's nice to see no drop and no layoff; far too early to give up on, though he was 39-1 that day so it's not like much was expected.

Go Black Tie

Sire Borrego gets over 7% 2yo debut winners; sire won 5 of 20 for $2 million, 4 of those wins routing including G1 Pacific Classic, G1 JC Gold Cup, 2nd in G1 HOL Gold Cup, G2 Arkansas Derby, G2 Louisiana Derby, 3rd in G1 SA Handicap; dam's 8 foals are all winners including Chestnut Affair (5 wins, 2 routing, $53K) and Imelda Oh (7 wins, $159K, SW) and 3 other route winners; dam won 1 of 10 for $28K; Dollase has been tremendous first time out (10 for last 24, 42%) but only 1 of those came beyond a mile and that runner did not win; plenty of works to indicate he's got a foundation.

Rock Hard City

Son of G1 route SW Rock Hard Ten showed speed sprinting in his dedbut at SA Nov. 3 but hit the brakes pretty hard; still, you can be forgiving about a first run and somebody saw something they liked as he was sent off at just 5.90-1; that being said, Bejarano was up for his debut but ends up on Hold Everything next door today instead, so read into that what you will; all 4 sibs are winners including Midnight Lucky (3 for 4, $362K, won G1 Acorn routing, Sunland Park Oaks routing).

Hold Everything

First 2 starts weren't bad at all; ran 3rd to much-ballyhooed stablemate Tap It Rich in his route debut at SA Oct. 12 (today's foe Candy Boy was 2nd, 4 1/4 lengths ahead of him) and 2nd to highly regarded Kristo routing there Oct. 31; Bejarano takes the call and Bafert adds blinkers today (25%); already has ample tactical speed to be in the thick of it from the get-go.

Race 2

Quick Cielo

The added distance is a question, but like the idea of this gelding taking full advantage of his rail post by employing his early speed to secure the early lead; Pedroza is a go-to rider for this barn and viewing this gelding as a gate-to-finish threat.

Ancient Stone

Birdstone has been a poor influence as a turf sire and this gelding tired badly the one time he tried turf prior to this; he's going to need a career best effort to threaten the top contenders in here.

Ebony Gold

Consistent performer earned a minor stakes placing over dirt three starts ago while making his first start back from a layoff and he showed up with a respectable performance the last time he was seen racing over turf; nevertheless, it does appear that a minor award is probably the ceiling for this runner.

Tommy O

His lack of early speed is always a concern, and it does look like there's a good chance that the early tempo in here will be on the slow side, but this gelding is clearly a good fit at this level of competition; runner up from latest won next out at SA on 10/31 going 1m over turf vs. 40-35k claimers with a 79 Beyer.

Poshsky

He's looked good in three consecutive starts since an ordinary debut run, including his last two over turf, and he appears to be very well meant in this spot while getting a rider switch to Talamo; a repeat of his latest performance makes him tough to deal with.

Hoosier Diddy

He earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure for his latest effort and that level of performance can give him a shot at a solid share of the prize against these; leaning toward others for the top spot, but not going to be surprised if he's in the mix.

Race 3

Silver Love

Ran to the 79-1 debut odds when trailing throughout; the trainer is 0-for the last-26 with synthetic-surface starts while dropping into a maiden claimer off a MSW loss is considered the biggest-class reduction in racing; most runners improve 2nd-time out and he has plenty of room to move forward here.

Sidepocket Champ

Speedster has to crack Burlister from the gate then hold off Second Proposal and the deeper closers; owns his best Beyer speed figure on synthetic and returns to his best surface for this; was troubled in 2 of 3; can take these a long way up top.

Wonderful Union

104 days since the key-race loss for a high-percentage fresh trainer who also fares well with 2nd-time starters; the winner, runner-up and 6th-place finishers from last Beyered 92-82-78 in next-out DMR-100K stakes and BSR-DMR-MSW wins; see lots of upside.

Street Choir

Handled by Second Proposal in the key-race loss 50 days ago; the winner and 6th-place finishers from last Beyered 95-78 in next-out BHP alw. and SA-20K-maiden-claiming wins; ignoring the 2-back loss the way he rallied on synthetic more distance than 6.5F seems needed to see-very best form.

Bench Press

Exits a career-low Beyer following a career-best speed figure; which horse shows up here?; races on a synthetic surface for the 1st time; the 2-back runner-up finisher posted a 102 Beyer for his next-out SA-MSW win; has been working like he is ready to fire a huge race although the rider from his best races lands on the speedy Sidepocket Champ.

Burlister

Sidepocket Champ is the one to catch but he should be flying from the gate also; 24%-winning long-layoff trainer adds to the appeal with a steady worktab on dirt for his 2nd start on synthetic; the rider from his debut sides with Street Choir while the show runner from last Beyered 76 in a next-out SA-MSW win.

Rader the Rat

Long layoff for his 1st-synthetic-surface start; was claimed off an odds-on loss where screaming out for more distance and gets an extra half furlong to get up in time; 5%-winning synthetic-surface trainer since 2012 does not add to the appeal.

Second Proposal

Primed for this at longer; projects for an ideal trip stalking likely pace setters Sidepocket Champ and Burlister; his field-best Beyer was posted 3 back on a synthetic surface at shorter than this and races back on synthetic for just the 2nd time in career; the 2-back winner repeated in a BHP alw. with a 95 Beyer while beating the 6th-place finisher a 78 Beyer-SA-20K-maiden-claiming graduate; figures as a major presence throughout but must outfinish these to graduate.

Exclude

Improving-Beyer pattern but his lowest speed figure was on a synthetic surface which he returns to for this; 48 days since the 1st-blinkered run suggested a lot longer than 6.5F would serve him better; the 2-back show runner Beyered 70 in a next-out GG-MSW win; the debut winner repeated with a 92 speed figure taking an SA-100K event while the runner-up graduated at SA in a 100K-maiden claimer next out.

Race 4

Consecrate

May foal was third last out in what has proven to be a productive race; the runner-up returned in her next start to win the $100K Sharp Cat at BHP by more than eight lengths, with a Beyer Figure of 78; as for this one, she stepped up her game with the move to two turns last out, and is bred to be a runner as her dam, a three-time stakes winner who earned $367K, has produced a three-time stakes winner in Harlan Street ($424K); win candidate.

Cause Im a Bigshot

She removes blinkers and that is a high-percentage equipment move for Mitchell; she also returns to the main track and note she ran arguably her best race over a synthetic surface; further adding to her appeal are competitive Beyer Figures; win candidate.

Blunderstone

She closed well for fourth in her career debut last out and now picks up more ground with the move to two turns; gets pedigree support for the added real estate from both sides of her family, and shows a series of forward works since her debut; looking for her to at least share.

Afsana

She comes off a useful debut effort in which she was prominent for much of the journey; the start came on turf, perhaps for the shot to race around two turns right off the bat; now moves to the main track and picks up ground and both changes suit her pedigree well; promising sort appears to be a leading contender.

Fashion Plate

She's been working sharply for what will be her first start since August, and her first start around two turns; looking for her to be prominent on account of the smart drills, the distance move and the fact that she's fresh; dam was a stakes-placed winner who has produced a stakes winner in Mr. Candy Bar ($136K); one who can share.

Star Act

She's bred to be a good one as a daughter of Street Cry and the multiple Grade 1-winning mare Starrer, who ran out $1M; shows strong mile work for first start at two turns, and gets good pedigree support for the added distance demands; seems poised to take a significant step forward.

Morning Star

By a Grade 1 winner of $833K who is getting 16 percent juvenile debut winners and 18 percent 2-year-old winners overall; dam was a winner of $47K, and this is her first foal to race; shows big move from the gate Nov. 7; firster is one to preview in the paddock.

Race 5

Prayer Be Mine

Bet like a good thing in the debut and she sure didn't disappoint; stabled locally, and nothing wrong with the drill on the 9th; not a lot of young horses are agile enough to overcome a bobble like she did at first asking and note place horse was 4 clear; there is a near $150K earner in the family; can't count out.

Tribal Tattoo

The only double winner in the group, that may come into play at crunch time; this one has some semblance of speed but the other O'Neill may be quicker; sometimes that Pomona form doesn't travel well but there are two in the clan that have banked over $100K; must be left in the hopper.

Harlington's Rose

Proven here but in the money only once since and she didn't make anybody afraid that day; a bit of an improvement in last but the routes may have dulled her speed further; needs very best.

Rovenna

She overcame toruble in the Florida score and this is her easiest spot since; kin Champions Gate was stakes placed and earned nearly $150K; if you figure she just needed last, you can make a case for a move forward but she will still need to find a way to turn the tables on Whatsallthedrama among others.

Meinertzhageni

Steadied at Pomona but there are a lot of ways to get beat there; she really wanted no part of the miler in last; that debut came back live as the winner repeated in the $150K General Portion with an 87 Beyer; probably from off the pace if at all.

Time for Angie

The career started on a high note, but it's been all downhill since; finally out of the stakes game and that's a good thing; miss has to prove she can go this far and she's just a tough ticket to take after several dull efforts.

Accommodation

For a baby, she sure was professional in the debut; dead last early, she made the huge middle move to get within 4 of the leaders and then just kept coming; love the spacing of the drills coming to this race, Stevens enticed and miss is drawn right; repeat well within the realm.

Smoove It

Proven here and back at the best trip; finally off the rail and note the winner on 10/13 repeated in the $100K Moccasin with a 71 Beyer; miss was in tight early in last and the feeling is we didn't see her A game; can never dismiss this kind of speed.

Whatsallthedrama

Miss has been a bad actress at the gate in the last several races; that must be addressed as to what price one will accept; note Bejarano sticks with the other Hollendorfer; with the way she concedes lengths, she sure doesn't make it easy on herself.

Feature Attraction

Boxcars every time, but miss has more speed than she just flashed; she has a shot to have a decent career as kin to stakes placed near $200K earner Lovehi; looks like trainer tried to get some speed back into her with the blowout on the 5th; has some things to prove.

Race 6

Ascription

Lackluster efforts in last pair and soundly beaten by Tookmebysurprise and Golden Celestial October 27. Drops a notch, but stuck on the rail and has little early speed.

Tookmebysurprise

Consistent juvenile turned back $40,000 starter allowance types October 6 then was a clear second with a wide trip for a $32,000 tag most recently. Contending speed and apprentice Orozco has been aboard for both career wins.

Tom Kha

Outrun against better last summer at Betfair Hollywood Park but improved when dropped in class at Del Mar. Distant third on bullring and now tumbles in class for Paul Aguirre. Trainer, rider have won 3-of-8 together with a $6.35 ROI.

Larocco

First out winner on Cushion Track July 11 and has been competitive against better every start since. Freshened for this and returns at a career low. First time without blinkers for Dollase, who wins at 27 per cent and a $2.65 ROI when he uses Maldonado.

Diamonddusted

Game winner from the rail first time out October 20 and appears reasonably placed for her first look at winners. Peter Miller has now used Perez twice and has won both times for a whopping $13.40 ROI. Miller off to a fast start with four wins from first 13 starters.

Charlie Time

Crushed $30,000 maiden claimers October 11 but was eased 16 days later for $32,000. Tries a rider change to Martin Garcia and two works since her last is a plus. Hard to predict what to expect.

Golden Celestial

Defeated twice by Tookmebysurprise but nonetheless a solid fit in this field. Drawn toward the outside and should be placed just off the pace by hot-riding Corey Nakatani. Second Peter Miller entrant (Diamonddusted) is a good trifecta possibility.

Frandontjudge

Fast maiden claiming victory October 3 was followed by a competitive fourth at the $40,000 starter allowance level later that month. A repeat of either of those races probably would win this. Bejarano rides back for Doug O'Neill.

Patty Wack

Distanced in last two with no excuse. Slight drop in class unlikely to wake up the Bushwacker filly. Drops nine pounds with the addition of apprentice Nicolas and has two moderate drills since last ran.

Race 7

Mum's Truckee

Tough 6-pack; did some good work in 2 starts on DMR's synthetic track in August (3rd in each); then had a troubled turf trip at SA Oct. 11, then made a strong early move to grab the lead turning for home in a dirt sprint there Nov. 3 but died on her run; back to synthetic with no panicky drop for a trainer who continues his fine work (4 for first 13, 31%, this meet) with a nice 4f work Nov. 15 (:48) to encourage.

Mechaya

Plenty of talent shown in the summer/fall of 2011 including 3rd in the G1 Del Mar Debutante and 2nd to eventual champ Beholder; trouble is, she hasn't been seen since last November when 3rd in a stakes at WO, so it's over a year on the bench; at least she's been working lights-out for a trainer who does well off the bench and it's nice to see Bejarano takes the call; the only time he rode her prior was in that nice debut win at DMR in Aug. 2012.

Spring Breeze

Looked super blasting $20K foes at DMR Aug. 7 and was claimed but then fizzled vs. this caliber there Aug. 31; however, she bounced back nicely in turf at SA Oct. 3 at this level, setting the pace and finishing a game 2nd to the very tough Llandudno; freshened since , Maldonado stays (her 2 best races of late came with him aboard) and it's great to see that while O'Neill claimed her 3 months ago he takes no such risk of losing her via a claim here.

Peppy Bolly

Game 14-1 upset over Cal-bred allowance foes at SA Oct. 5; that came after 2 months off so the layoff since isn't an issue; what may be an issue is that she's not facing state-breds only any longer, but instead must deal with open foes, some tough ones at that; winless here, yes, but in her 3 starts she's run pretty darn well (2 2nds, 1 3rd) so she handles this place; bigger issue is whether she handles it well enough to be a factor at this level.

Gifting

Baffert pushing all the right buttons this meet (5 for first 13, 38%); filly certainly ran well here in the spring as her best 2 results (a win and a 2nd) came here at this trip; comes off a fine 3rd vs. some tough gals at SA Nov. 3 and a hsarp :47.60 work at SA Nov. 16 says she's doing well.

Tappingintherain

It was a win over maidens only, yes, but boy, was it a nice win; she stalked the pace, surged to the lead into the lane and drew off to win easily; well drawn again for another such trip and while that was on SA dirt note a big 2nd on this track at this type of game June 29, with a heady Beyer attached to boot (82); shown versatility and a big :46.80 work Nov. 11 says she holds her edge; plenty of positives, even with the big hurdle of facing winners for the first time.

Race 8

Pawn Shop

Drops to the basement for the first time in her career after finishing a distant second to Quinnette for $16,000 October 25. This seems a prudent move by Ted H. West, who could use a winner after going 2-for-44 this year. Has the benefit of the rail and the leading rider.

English Puddin

Easy winner for $12,500 on the Golden Gate turf, making today's class drop a bit suspicious. It's possible that trainer Dan Blacker is simply trying to get all he can out of a horse he claimed for $32,000 in February. Kept her edge with a :47 4/5 drill November 9.

Amulay

Returned from a freshening October 18 with a game victory over $12,500 restricted claimers. Finishing third that day was Psalm Sixteen, who beat $8,000 runners two races later. Daughter of It's No Joke broke her maiden on Cushion Track June 9, defeating next-out winner Backintheacademy.

Rachels Belle

Five victories, but each was at Los Alamitos against much cheaper. In over her head and lost by double digits in her last two. Back at the bottom for Jorge Periban but probably will need a return trip to Los Alamitos to get back in the groove.

Warrens China Doll

Took a step backward October 24 after three good efforts. Two slow works since suggest the possibility of a downward pattern. Zero for 12 this year, winless in eight starts on Cushion Track and this trainer is 1-for-111 in 2013.

Boo Who Who

Only two victories were in Pomona and they both came last year. Was an also ran when claimed for $6,250 one back, then for some reason was lifted all the way to $25,000, where she trailed. Blinkers are removed and unproven at this distance. Hard to like.

Tribal Rain

Often in the battle, but has six seconds and just one victory. Been bouncing up and down the class ladder while showing speed each time. Sharp second for $10,000 one back, faded a bit for $16,000 and now falls all the way down to $8,000. Likely pacesetter again under Maldonado.

Plazarita

Bobbled at the start last out, loomed a threat midstretch, but faltered the final eighth at this level October 31. Ran well on Cushion Track during the Spring/Summer meet, but that was around one turn. Improvement necessary to break her 11-race losing streak.

Pure Blush

No-excuse third as the favorite on Halloween, removes blinkers and takes another crack at a similar group. Gets a rider upgrade to Espinoza, who has a $2.47 ROI for Bob Hess. Two-time winner in 2013 fits nicely in this spot.

Psalm Sixteen

Won under similar conditions October 31, defeating several of today's opponents. Lacked a rally when double jumped in class November 10 and is back where she belongs today. Sheds five pounds with the addition of apprentice Nicolas.

Hip

Distanced in only other two-turn race and now must deal with the outside post. Only victory was sprinting at Keeneland in 2012 and hasn't threatened since despite several tries at this level.