Betfair Hollywood: Closer Looks for November 21, 2013

Race 1

Mauzzie

Sire Bedford Falls is 0 for 3 first time on turf, 0 for first 8 overall on turf, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 3 of 15 for $115K, was 4-0-1-2 on turf; dam has 3 winners from 4 foals to race including Cat's Gold (15 wins, $78K, SP, off board in 3 turf starts); dam won 5 of 19 for $85K, no turf starts; not only trying a new game surface-wise but he's up in class for the privilege; does have speed and the rail and at least he's not facing any (obvious) monsters.

Dragon Dance

Sire Johannesburg gets over 11% first time turf winners, over 13% overall turf winners; sire won 7 of 10 for $1 million, was multiple G1 SW on turf in Europe, won G1 BC Juvenile, was champion 2yo male in U.S. and Europe; dam's 2 foals to race have yet to win and were off the board in 2 and 1 starts on turf, respectively; dam won 6 of 22 for $170K, 5 wins on turf, twice SP on turf; nice maiden win on SA dirt Oct. 18; it's first time vs. winners and first tiem turf but there's promise here and Bejarano stays.

Educated Guess

Sire Lion Heart gets over 9% first time turf winners and overall turf winners; sire won 5 of 10 for $1.3 million, won G1 Hol. Futurity, G1 Haskell, 2nd in G1 Ky. Derby, no turf starts; dam's 3 foals are winners including Coach Royal (2 wins, both on turf, $182K); dam had 1 2nd, 2 3rds in 6 starts for $19K, no turf starts; looked super blasting maiden claimers at SA Nov. 3; they risked him for a tag that day but take no such risk this time; blew the start and STILL romped by 10 1/4, winning geared down.

Friends With Macy

Tried a race like this down the hill at SA Oct. 13 but was no factor (7th) at 32-1; still, that was his first try vs. winners and his first on turf; didn't fare much better on dirt there Oct. 20 but he's back to turf with a big bullet 3f blowout Nov. 4 (:34.80) to encourage.

Crimson Giant

There was a time he could have been a factor here; alas, that was back in 2012 when he had 1 2nd and 4 3rds in 6 starts, but things have not gone well in 2013 (1 2nd in 21 starts); tough to build a case the way he's been going this year as he's now overall 0 for 21 on turf (1 2nd).

Cinco de Mario

Plenty scary; winless on turf, yes (in 8 starts) but he's still shown ample talent on turf including a sharp 2nd in a race like this down the hill at SA last time out, Oct. 19; has speed and versatility and, with that last run, by far the most proven form turf form and things look even better based on his morning work recently (2 bullets, :59.60 here Nov. 11, :35.80 here Nov. 7); still, he IS winless on turf and what if one of the guys trying grass for the first time flourishes on it, hmmmmm?

Race 2

Oscillator

Real nice turf try at SA Oct. 31, but don't assume she's a one-surface specialist; after all, she's 4-for-4 in the exacta on synthetic (2nd in only start here) and has won on dirt, too; so, that turf race shows she comes here sharp and it's nice to see Bejarano take the call, too; big issue is what's she to do if the gal to her right comes back breathing fire, hmmmm?

Key Vista

Won her debut here 11 months ago like a budding monster for Baffert; but then came 10 months off, a duel and severe fizzle at SA Oct. 5; usually they come back guns a-blazin' for Baffert off the bench so that SA run is a worrisome; but he's given her another layoff, returns her to a track you know she loves with NO panicky drop in for a tag; some strong works bode well, too, but it's understandable after that SA dud if you swallow hard when you plunk down serious money on her at the expected short price.

Tribal Chatter

6th, behind Oscillator (2nd) on DMR's Polytrack Aug. 24 and then got some time off; came back with a decent run on SA dirt at this level Oct. 26; back to synthetic and there's no class drop with a nice work since; only local start was an OK 3rd; certainly eligible to move forward but is even her 'A' game good enough to beat these?

Another Flashback

Lone win came routing on turf; yes, she's winless on synthetic but 3 2nds and 2 3rds in 6 tries still say she handles this type of ground; comes off a decent turf try at this level at SA Oct. 31, not far at all behind Oscillator; worked well a couple times since, too.

J and S Express

Looked as though she might post a 26-1 upset down the hill at SA at this level Oct. 31 when she took the lead in midstretch; alas, that final furlong got the better of her and she ran 4th; still, it was a pretty nice try so she comes here in decent form and now returns to what may be her favorite place (3 of her 5 wins have come here); outside draw figures cozy for her stalking style.

Race 3

Peggy Sue's Loose

Moves to the fence for the stretchout after an ok effort down the Santa Anita hill earlier in the month; filly should show some more early interest from here and she did run well going long earlier in the year; doesn't catch a particularly tough bunch in this spot and looms a big threat.

Kana Flavor

She's been working well for her return to the lawn over which she began her career back in the spring; maybe she offers a little more early as she'll tackle 2 turns for the first time in this spot and her SW dam did take a couple of routes while banking 366K; she's kin to 2 surface winnrs, one of whom was a multiple main track route winner so she could go better at today's added trip.

Tiz Zoe Cee

Last out runner up gets a little more gorund to deal with in her local return; she's only run a handful of times so she has a right to keep moving forward, but the pace scenario could present her with some problems today; one to consider.

Little Unusual

She's had 28 unsuccessful tries and now she'll stretch back out to 2 turns after sharpening her arly interest down the hill; her style is to come from well out of it and plod along and with a solid blowout in tow maybe she's able to make a run from a closer spot today; doesn't face any killers, but it's tough to endorse her for any more than a minor share.

Paralyzing Eyes

Twelve time loser moves to the lawn after another weak try against open company claimers; filly has yet to run a number on any type of footing that would put her in the mix here; looms another long price.

Onyx Be Good

Goes first time for a new outfit in her return from better than 4 months on the shelf; filly earned some minor awards on the Golden Gate green earlier in the year and she tries statebreds in this spot, but from a figure standpoint she's going to need to take a good step forward to have a say in the outcome here.

Bridle Plan

Nice effort after arguing the fractions in her initial route spin off the freshening and now she'll return to the course of her troubled sprint debut run; gray catches a bunch without much early foot and even from out here should be able to clear the lead; tackles an added half panel, but with a right to be better second time routing she could last longer today.

Hot and Pleasing

Outside drawn filly ran out of ground while rallying from well out of it at a slightly shorter trip over the Santa Anita lawn; don't know that pace will be as quick as she saw last time and one of the gals who finished ahead of her returns here as well, but she did finish close to a couple of next out winners in that one and should be doing her better running in the lane; contender.

Race 4

Tux

Raced evenly in his recent comeback race while a huge price, a distinct improvement; can upgrade further from ground-saving position and can earn a minor share as a result; generous odds are assured.

Anzeau

A fine try in defeat earlier this month when bet down heavily to 3 to 1; set solid early fractions in that effort and should be an exacta presence today if not challenged by the stretchout sprinters; obvious true contender.

Trial Spin

Draws far more favorably now than in that recent sprint effort; was part of a multiple speed duel in his last route attempt and the grey could be a surprising pace factor today; move up his chances if the known front-runners happen to scratch.

Tiz Futurity

One-run type would benefit if there is an intense tempo today; ran respectably in his turf debut but has never really shown any preference for this oval; despite this return to the claiming ranks, he may rally after the fact once again.

The River Grand

Broke slowest in both attempts and might appreciate this extension in distance; his sire won the G1 Hollywood Derby and 573K; the dam lost her only race and this is her sole foal to make it to the starting gate.

Philly Slew

He has raced only 4 times since 2010; sprint ventures this past summer did not show much enthusiasm and the returning workout is not inspiring; appears to be in serious need of a tightening race before moving forward.

Midnight Casanova

A fine try a month ago when a clear-cut second despite being involved in a pressurized pace situation; draws a comfortable stalking post and maintains Bejarano who has an excellent percentage when riding for these connections; major player.

Chocolatier

No match for the previous runner last time out but he was in need of the race and did not have the smoothest of trips; drilled an atypical 6F recently and perhaps that can enable him to make first run; can prove to be the value play.

Full's Kris S.

Far back in a bulky field in his last effort but the early fractions of that event were strong; he will likely be a dead send from this outer post and, at the very least, will affect the flow of the race; not out of the question in a difficult race to unravel.

Race 5

Afternoon Sun

Bay Area invader defeated $8,000 non-winners of two lifetime at Stockton, then found open $12,500 sophomores a tad too steep. Taken by Mark Glatt (31 per cent, $2.97 ROI first off a claim), who drops him a peg and secures the leading rider. Bejarano has 22 per cent winners for this barn with a $2.27 ROI. Tracking style a plus.

Billy Win

Regressed last time but showed a preference for Cushion Track during the summer with two victories in three starts. Won the only time he was ridden by Talamo, who returns today. Never raced this cheaply, however he's drawn inside a lot of speed.

The Gatekeeper

Graduated in a half-mile dash on the Barretts bullring August 14, then ran against the bias when a closing fifth next out at Santa Anita. Moves further down for Sadler and retains Pedroza, who has good stats for this barn (18 per cent, $2.55 ROI). Extra furlong a plus and this track suits his style better.

Shoer Hugh

Bullring specialist popped up with a strong third last time against similar at 39-1. Chased a fast pace and dug in through the lane. Whether he can duplicate that effort in a speed-laden field is debatable, but the quick turnaround is a plus.

Zippingaroundtown

Dedicated front-runner weakened slightly toward the end against cheaper in his Santa Anita finale. Defeated a better group at Del Mar, so class really isn't an issue. Aguirre-Arias tandem has done well from limited chances, winning 3-of-8 for a $6.35 ROI.

Talk the Walk

All out to defeat $5,000 claimers in Pomona September 21 and probably will need better to handle the class jump. Did break his maiden on Cushion Track April 25, so he has that angle going for him. Stalker will have to be used hard to stay in contention today.

Valid But True

Eighth twice in restricted claimers in Arcadia. Faced older runners in his last six and will appreciate the move to sophomores only. Still, one victory was accomplished in gate-to-wire fashion and the Yes It's True gelding doesn't figure to see the lead here.

Orangeyouacutie

Raced evenly in a fast $16,000 non-winners of two lifetime and should move up with the drop. Stalker figures to get a good trip and Espinoza stays with him. Had trained well going into his last and should run another good one on 12 days rest.

Sacred Ovation

Fast sophomore is the key to the race. Reportedly bled last time against $40,000 claimers down the hill and was vanned off the track. Art Sherman took the blinkers off for that grass sprint and quickly puts them back. Giant class drop is a concern, but he's trained steadily for this and won his only start on Cushion Track. Probably all or nothing today.

Ancient Monarch

Won a restricted $12,500 claimer at Golden Gate in August before backing up quickly in an open contest for the same price in his next outing. Been away two months and recent morning activity has been alarmingly slow. Seems in tough.

Race 6

Magic Daddy

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from an unraced dam; he ran well in his career debut and he might not mind getting a chance to see what he can do racing over turf; Garcia has won with 5 of 9 (56%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Wistfullee Mine

He's out of a dam who won 3 of 15 turf starts for 141k, and he's a 1/2 to Tizalwaysomething (1-6, 48k over turf) but it's tough to build a favorable case in his direction based on what he's shown so far.

Handsome Dennis

Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and dam won once from 12 starts for 47k, including 1 of 9 turf starts for 35k; this colt is a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes winner Handsome Mike (3-21, 908k, including 1 of 5 turf starts for 71k); his lack of early speed is a concern, but he has a turf leaning pedigree.

Artic Warrior

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his first-time starters and with approximately 7% of his turf starters, and dam won once from eight starts for 4k, including one of five turf starts for 3k; looking at this as being a tough spot for a firster to land in.

Fly High

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; maybe the move to turf can help get him turned around, but he's a tough one to back based on recent form.

I Buy Gold

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and minor stakes placed dam won 4 of 26 starts for 177k, including 0-for-1 over turf; not sure about the move to turf for him, but he's flashed ability in a number of his starts.

Money Clip

He's a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes winner Keertana (10-25, $1 million over turf) and G1 stakes placed Snow Top Mountain (6-21, 469k over turf); runner up from debut won next out at GP on 3/6 going 5f over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 76 Beyer; Stevens has won with 19 of 71 (27%) mounts for this barn in 2013; he might want more distance down the road, but there's plenty to be positive about in this direction.

Oughttobenaughty

She's by a fine turf sire and feel that her career debut can be viewed in a favorable light; winner from debut won next out at SA on 10/24 going 6 1/2f over turf vs. N1X alw. rivals with an 81 Beyer; going to respect her chances, even if she is meeting up with boys.

Race 7

Distort This

Had a good year in 2012, winning three times, but is 0-for-4 this year, hasn't run since April and is dropping off a claim (Sadler to Guillot). Trainer has poor stats first time after a claim and with horses returning from long layoffs. Rail post adds to the negatives.

Newfound Gold

Scored at a lower level October 19 at Santa Anita, but was off poorly and struggled when raised to allowance company 12 days later. Back in the right neighborhood today and may be the quickest one in here. In light with bug boy and dangerous if clears early.

Korban

Been fairly consistent on Cushion Track (9 1-3-2) and may have needed his last start. Faced optional claimers in last two and now moves into a straight $25,000 for Marty Jones. Changes riders often and lands with Sutherland-Kruse today. Should be in the first flight.

High Test

Fast closing third for this price down the hill October 12 following a six-week break. Came back with a pair of solid drills for Mike Puype and once again Talamo rides. This trainer, rider duo clicks at an above average 18 per cent. Last victory was over this track during the Spring/Summer meeting.

Explain

Lowered to this tag September 27 and streaked away to a 5 1-4 length victory, earning a giant 93 Beyer, a career best. Has been given seven weeks to recover, but it's curious that Diodoro doesn't raise him in class. Four works since ran, but how much did that race take out of him?

Gutshot Straight

Has the winning knack and does his best work in Inglewood. Kela gelding is 4-for-7 on the Cushion and 4-for-24 on all other main tracks. Went 2-for-2 here earlier in the year. Rested since a facile victory on the bullring two months ago. Claimed in three straight, most recently by Blake Heap.

Java Man

John Sadler took a shot last time by dropping the 7-year-old from allowance to $12,500 claimers. He won easily but was taken by Doug O'Neill. Though he's routed exclusively since 2010, the Pennsylvania bred cuts back to a sprint as he triple jumps in class.

Motown Men

Cleared early and cruised to an easy victory at 1 1-16 miles October 24. Mike Mitchell adept with the route-to-sprint maneuver, winning 22 per cent with a $2.26 ROI. Maldonado hasn't ridden much for this outfit, but he's 5-for-18 since the beginning of 2012.

Master Chef

Claimed in five of his last eight. Hollendorfer tagged him for $25,000 October 13, making this his third tour of duty for the Hall of Fame trainer. The Vronsky gelding's last three have been below par, but he has a solid work tab and is reunited with Bejarano, who was aboard for his last victory on Cushion Track. The 5-year-old is 5-for-15 on this surface.

Race 8

Indian Monkey

Soph ran okay from the Pomona rail before hooking clear winner in last; he was boosted when King Maya repeated here in a $16K N2L seller with an 82 Beyer on 11/9; note show horse in last was nearly 6 clear; must be left in the mix.

Angel Charge

First time on the synthetic and would have liked to have seen some local activity; backers can point to the fact there are a couple of 6-figure earners in the family including Grade 3 winner and over $300K earner Heavenly Landing; in for $55K less than purchase price; if he can run at all, the figures to show it here.

Starry Shark

Gelding has some semblance of speed but he may have a hard time clearing here; hard to be thrilled with the way he caved in last time; place horse in the Pomona race cashed next out in this league with a 74 Beyer; figures to at least muddle the pace.

Sheriff Hutton

Can never dismiss sub :22 speed; the obvious red flag is the extended layoffs; off from May till January of last year and then again off for over a year and a half, he seemed on the verge after the tough beat in September, but he has stopped badly since; there is speed inside and outside of him; not sure the race sets up all that great today.

Alpha Bullet

Unraced Kitalpha 10 for 71 with debuters; dam out of the money twice; 2 of 3 siblings won including stakes placed perfomer and over $160K earner Seeking Sheba; in for $14K more than purchase price and note the gap in published drills till 10/12.

Bringon the Wain

This runner changed hands since the last start; note the first time he raced for a tag, he ran huge at Anita and maybe he needed the 2012 closer; trainer has spotted them just fine all year; tab tote action.

Marino Mizer

The last race came back live as the 6th finisher won in this league, 7th finisher was 2nd at neck for this price at Golden Gate and the winner repeated in an N1X here on 11/9; 7 for 28 dam banked nearly $90K; 2 of 3 siblings won including double stakes winner, 11 for 39 racer and over $170K earner Kool Comic; all systems go.

Western Seeker

He's been a bad actor at the gate so far; dam out of the money 4 times; lone half sis to race Giddy U Gal was second in best moment beaten over 3 in a maiden $2500 Los Al claimer; a clean start and it could be a whole new ballgame.

Attempt

Even after the decent third in September, fans didn t exactly go to the well at 10-1 and they were right on the money; look for him in the final stages if at all.

Our New Flash

Our New Recruit 5 for 40 with debuters; Group 1 winning sire banked over $1.4 million; dam was unraced; 1 of 3 siblings won; that runner, Solo Flash, took 3 of 25, banked about a grand a start; legged up in Orange County and the drill are hardly inspiring.

Marv

Tough beat in last but never thrilled to see beats at Pomona; the 9/19 winner repeated in a $40K Fresno starter with a 66 Beyer; only beaten a nose here just over a year ago, could make some noise off the career Beyer last time.

Trouble X Two

Pushed along in the miler but he just had nothing left; connections still have hope for this guy as all 4 siblings won including near $100K earner Rice n Spice; the hotter the pace the better for this runner.

Grant

The shorter trip could be just what the good doctor ordered; note the show horse in last was over 3 clear as Bisono got a chance to figure him out; the place horse the day he was claimed graduated next out at this level, the was out of the money twice in Phoenix; drawn right and if he can rate a bit, that could be the right ticket.

Slight Edge

The double flops at Pomona are a concern; gelding was fairly close up the other time this rider was aloft; could see runner in a stalk and pounce position; could easily be enticed into gimmick action.