Betfair Hollywood: Closer Looks for November 17, 2013

Race 1

Kafister

Surprised that after his nice $32K win at BSR that he didn't see the dirt at SA; the good news, though, is now that he resurfaces here at least he does so UP in price off a steady string of works, and he's proven he can handle synthetic, too; rail is no bargain so far this meet around one turn, though (0 for first 23).

Two Term Leader

Most of his work, and his best work, has come on turf; that would be encouraging since you've seen many a turf horse come here and thrive, but note his only local start (May 24) wasn';t pretty at all; in his defense, that was also his first start vs. winners and he set a brisk pace before caving; looks like a better horse now, but even so, that lone local run raises the specter he's not as thrilled with synthetic as he is turf.

One Firm Cat

Not only comes here sharp but Sherlock saw fit to plunk down $25K to claim him at SA Oct. 18 and NOW moves him up 2 levels - heck, he's out of 'jail' so he doesn't even have to move him up 1 rung on the ladder; won on DMR synthetic at this type of trip so odds are he'll be comfortable here; heck, just 4 months ago his then-connections like dhim enough to try him in a stakes.

No Contingency

Looks headed the right way; after a string of so-so outings he perked up to be 2nd at BSR Sept. 19 and 3rd at SA Oct. 19; of course, you get what links those 2 and his only win - dirt; obviously that ain't the footing on which we're playing today and he's yet to hit the board in 3 synthetic tries; at least seems to be sharper now than he was then and he has been working well over this track the past couple months

Native Treasure

Dueled and paid the price for $50K at SA Oct. 19; in his defense, not only did he duel through hot splits but that was his first start in over 7 months; drops a notch today and there's not another layoff; still, Bejarano saw fit to ride that day but ends up on Tahoe Flash next door instead, so read into that what you will.

Tahoe Flash

Looks like one of the ones; comes here in solid form having run 3rd for $32K at BSR Sept. 22 and 2nd for $25K at SA Oct. 18; yes, those came on dirt and his only 2 synthetic track tries weren't too hot; however, those 2 came in starts 1 and 3 in his career so he seems a much better horse now than he was then; very nice to see the 2-level class hike by sharp trainer Bonde and that Bejarano takes the call, particularly as he and Bonde are 13 for their last 39 (33%) together.

He's Not Bluffin

It's first time on synthetic but this guy certainly showed ability on dirt at EMD; won his last 3 starts including a restricted stakes there Sept. 8; freshened, comes here for the first time and while new surroundings and new footing are significant hurdles he's obviously got speed, versatility and talent, and it's not as if he's facing any monsters here either.

Race 2

Blue Collar Boy

Pressed a legitimate pace, fought back when headed, but had to settle for second October 25. Though he steps up one level, the Calkins Road gelding is facing a comparable field. Looks like the speed again and has the benefit of the rail. Has improved in each of his three routes. The one to beat.

Public Defender

Made his usual late run but wound up third, 2 1-4 lengths behind Blue Collar Boy. Unfortunately, today's race shape may produce slower fractions. Trainer could use a break after a 1-for-26 year.

Tama County

Many stretch runners in the field, but this one may be the most effective. Looked hopelessly beaten at the quarter pole last time but somehow got up for a nose victory over $20,000 maiden claimers. Today's likely slower pace works against him.

Eyesablazin

Good position early, then stopped to a walk against runaway winner Bipartisan October 4. Main thing he has going for him today is a soft trip. Should be laying second or third to Blue Collar Boy and will have his chance if good enough.

Bobby Flay

Ran on for the place, but never got close to Afflication, who won by 12. Both that race and his previous start, where he defeated Blue Collar Boy, give him a chance if he doesn't lose contact with the field. Came back with a sharp :47 3/5 drill. Espinoza probably will have to use him a bit early to avoid traffic.

Mr Phalaris

Blinkers on following two poor efforts at huge prices, but the California bred picks another difficult spot. Third at Fairplex for a $5,000 tag three back and likely would be more competitive at Los Alamitos.

Warren's Joe T.

Lapped on Bobby Flay for the place last out and earned a hefty 81 Beyer at Barretts in his previous start. In light once again, however the Affirmative gelding hasn't hit the board in three starts on Cushion Track.

As Good as Gold

Back quickly after finishing fourth in the first race of the meeting. Wasted a perfect trip that day and tries with blinkers for the first time. Takes a double class drop and may be closest to likely pacesetter Blue Collar Boy. Outside post shouldn't bother him.

Race 3

Warren's Veneda

Had already done some good work but she realy looked like a new horse the way she won at SA Oct. 13; sure, those were lesser and that was on dirt, but she's proven on this track (1 for 1), is SP so she has quality and has done very well at this type of trip; so maybe that last big win was a sign she's upped her game enough to handle these, and 3 nice works since help back up that assessment.

Curvy Cat

Hard-knocking miss has run well here and the first part of this year did pretty darn well; things went south a bit this summer but Hollendorfer has freshened her, moves her back in vs. Cal-breds (it's sure nice he doesn't drop her in for a tag or anything like that) and she's been working lights-out at GG (3 straight bullets); oh, and it doesn't hurt Mr. Bejarano sees fit to ride.

Ciao Bella Luna

She's a G2 SW on KEE's Polytrack, though this isn't the exact same type of synthetic; the good news, though, is she ran 2nd in a stakes at this type of trip here May 19, so she handles this, too; all her work, however, has come vs. 3yos only so she's facing elders this time, and doing it off a so-so stakes try at KEE last month; new trainer Miller adds blinkers and she sure worked strongly here Nov. 12 (bullet :48) to indicate she's feeling pretty darn good right now.

Qiaona

Only 7th in the G3 Sen. Ken Maddy down the hill at SA NOv. 2 but she was by no means embarrassed as she was beaten just 2 1/4 lengths; 0 for 5 on synthetic, yes, but a 2nd in a sprint stakes at DMR a few months ago and 4th in a stakes here in the spring hint she's not out of her elemetn here; prior to the Maddy run she won 2 straight so she comes here in good form.

Sister Kate

3rd in the L. A. Woman at SA Oct. 5, with 2 GSWs in front of her, show she's got some oomph; fizzled in the G3 Maddy down the hill at SA last time but she may not be at her best on turf, and that was a very tough spot; could be she's the main speed here and that's always interesting, particularly when they get ignored at the windows, as this gal figures to be; still, she's going to have to turn things around to beat this bunch.

Race 4

Unusual Fleet

Sire gets 9% first out winners and the dam was winless from 6 starts prior to dropping 4 multiple winners including G2 SP, SW and 348K earner Medzendeekron; post is no bargain for a newcomer but the barn fires with them and the local works are ok of late.

Pyrotechnics

Adds the hood for his second career start after getting off to a rough start in his debut run; barn is profitable with its runners who have had a race; dam was a 7 time winner and banked 174K, but her other foals to race were a combined 0 for 16 on the track.

Heaveneleven

Tried claimers first out without much luck; colt will tackle better while trying synthetic for the first time in this spot and there's not a lot to suggest he'll go much better in here; have to pass on this longshot.

Ron's Boy

Tracked a hot clip before backing out of it at a big price first time out; he'll try synthetic footing today and that may be a question for him, but he does have some speed; dam only ran twice but she won her debut and finished second in the other one; expect he'll again be prominent early.

Super Reagan

Sire gets nearly 16% first out winners from his offspring and the dam was 0 for 5 prior to dropping 2 winners from 3 foals to race; barn is capable of winning right out of the box and though there's a big late summer gap showing, the worktab is steady of late for this.

Lucky Views

Sire gets 10% winners with his newcomers and he's the first foal to race out of an unraced dam; barn hasn't done much of late with its firsters, but Bejarano is enticed and some of the recent dirt drills do suggest the screws have been tightened.

Fourth Generation

Sire hits at a 10% clip with his runners right out of the box and the dam was 0 for 5; lone sib was a 2 time route winner; synthetic works aren't very quick, but the tab is steady and this barn does nice work with its newcomers.

This Cat's Awesome

Sire gets 10% winners from his debut runners and the dam won 2 sprints prior to dropping one foal to race, 127K earner Awe'Some Kitten, who won sprinting and on the lawn; barn is profitable with its firsters and some of the local main track drills last month were quick.

Race 5

Appealing Tale

The win rider is on Holy Candy for this following a career-low Beyer speed figure on turf; has never raced this far and off latest fade the stamina is a big concern for this; likes to be forwardly placed so has every chance to be a major-pace presence but needs to find missing stamina to land a major share.

Blu Jon

Had to love his 2-back synthetic-surface career-best Beyer the only time racing over the BHP track; main issue is that his comeback race 51 days ago saw him as no match for Appealing Tale when screaming out for more distance and now getting it here; contender.

Tiz Dynamic

78 days since tiring in a key race when defeated by Northern Iowa; he beat the 7th and 10th-place finishers from last they Beyered 104-94 in next-out SA-optional claiming and $12,500 claiming wins; winner 2-back at today's distance on synthetic noting his best speed figure was on dirt at today's stamina test; 1-for-15-fresh trainer suggests we take a wait and see approach.

Holy Candy

The winner from last 99 days ago repeated in a DMR-optional claimer with an 89 Beyer; he beat the 4th-place finisher a 90 speed figure DMR-OPC next-out winner; 2 races over the BHP synthetic the latest was a less than 2-length loss in a Grade 3 event which occurred off a similar freshening; working strongly for this and seems set for a big effort; the one to beat.

Admission

Speedster lost all chance 11 weeks ago when missing the gate break; just one race since June, 2012, is the major issue but his May, '12 BHP win at today's distance is a field-best Beyer speed figure performance; wish he showed more in last pair including most-recent loss his lowest Beyer since October, 2010; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 104 in a next-out G1-Pacific Classic win; know him early then hopes to hang on late.

Northern Iowa

51 days since chasing the impressive winner from last who Beyered 97 in a next-out SA allowance win; has never landed an exacta finish on dirt so latest loss is a lot more impressive than it seems; lone win was fresh off an 81-day freshening when sitting just off the speed and was probably too far back in recent losses; seems set for a huge effort; bullet worktout for this and new rider Nakatani is 3-for-10 for the trainer since 2012; the pick.

Curly Top

Bet hard on dirt in last graduating on the main track but in latest was no match for the top 2 while 2 back landed behind similar rivals on synthetic where he is winless; owns his best Beyer on BHP synthetic 2nd time off the layoff so may see very best following today's start; races for a high-percentage fresh barn with a bullet workout for this; reunites with the win rider trying to turn the tables from the August defeat.

Race 6

Casey's Clem

Sire is 2 for 15 with his first out runners and the dam was winless from 3 starts prior to prior to dropping 2 multiple winners from 3 foals to race; she's been in training for a while now and this barn has had some recent success with debut runners, but the rail is a tough place to start.

Emotional Drive

Barn is winless on the year and they name a pilot who has yet to find the winner's circle from limited mounts; her sire gets about 11% first out winners from her offspring and the dam was 0 for 16 on the track, but her lone foal to race was a limited sprint winner.

Singleinthelast

Filly has been working well on the Santa Anita dirt for her first start since Del Mar where she did show a little bit of improvement second time out; she has encountered trouble in each of her starts so maybe a clean run will help her get more involved; new pilot's been on a poor run at the stand.

Reflective Glory

She's been back in serious training for a couple of months now and several of the listed dirt drills are solid; sire is 0 for 8 with his first out runners and the SW dam was a 300K earner and 6 time sprint winner who dropped 6 multiple winners including SW Bench Glory who banked 220K.

Mia Luccia

Showed good speed first out at Del Mar and has been idle since; she's been working long here for a while for her return to the races and each of her 2 foals to race is a sprint winner; expect her fresh speed will again be prominent.

Papa's Dancing

Passed some runners first out which is an achievement for a youngster and now she'll give new footing a try; filly worked well her last week for an outfit that hasn't done so well of late with second out runners; lone sib to race won 2 of her 5 sprints starts; consider.

Magic Spot

Debuted in the slower baby maiden heat at Santa Anita a few weeks back but did overcome a wide run to get third money; barn moves them up second time out and this gal did return to work sharply on dirt for this which gives the indication she did benefit from the debut experience.

Warren's Purrfect

Filly's workline was moderate until she threw a big half mile move down at Santa Anita earlier in the month for a barn that doesn't do so well right out of the box; sire is 1 for 42 with his first out winners, but the unraced dam's lone foal to race was SW and 224K earner Warren's Amber whose wins both came sprinting.

Yana

Earned a big number from the outside slot in the career debut placing at Santa Anita and she's been given some time since the effort; she has the new footing to deal with today, but she returned to work pretty sharply on dirt last week and she'll get a nice rider switch to Smitty for this one; expecting she'll prove tough to beat.

Race 7

My Samurai Warrior

Late running type can produce a solid performance on his best day and there's a chance that he's going to get a fast and contested early pace to close into; he's run well against a couple of today's key rivals in Empty Headed and Somethings Unusual in recent starts.

Uncle Dick

He's the speed nearest the rail but it looks like he's going to face legitimate early pace pressure from the outside; it's not that he isn't a good fit at this level of competition, but race shape might play against him; 1-2-3 finishers from latest all returned to win over turf with Beyer Speed Figures of 93, 84 and 89.

Brother Pete

He was sharp in recording a runner-up finish in his first start back from a layoff in his latest outing and he appears to be well meant while being reunited with Bejarano; he owns fine positional speed and Bejarano has won with 30 of 92 (33%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Somethings Unusual

If you're seeking the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here, he has it, and he's eligible to be ready to give a good account of himself right back while going sprint-to-route for his second start after a layoff; like to see that he's gotten the job done in two of three starts over this turf course.

Carlsbad Mountain

Headley owned/trained gelding is making his first start against winners after breaking his maiden for a 50k tag, and even though this looks like a tough spot for his first attempt against winners, don't ignore the impact his early speed can have on the way that this race shapes up.

Bench Light

He's the only one in here with four wins next to his name, and in a race that is likely to have a swift early pace, he's proven that he can get the job done racing from off of it; one of the sharper performances of his career was run in his only start over this turf course.

Rangi (GB)

This gelding has a little bit of turf in his pedigree and he outfinished today's rival Uncle Dick in his latest start; 1-2-3 finishers from that race all returned to win over turf with Beyer Speed Figures of 93, 84 and 89; feel that he's eligible to still have more to show us, but he might find himself in an early pace dispute with Uncle Dick and Carlsbad Mountain.

Empty Headed

This is a barn and rider that team up with success, and this gelding appears to be on top of his game entering this event; like the idea of this gelding dropping out of it right from the break and putting in a solid stretch bid after he sees a fast and contested early pace in front of him.

Race 8

Bella Caterina

Surf Cat one for 9 with debuting juveniles; sire didn't race at 2, won multiple Grade 2s, banked over a million; 1 for 12 dam cashed routing as older horse; 6 of 8 siblings won; 2 won at 2 including a debut winner; top kin Marcyjane won 2 of 9, earned over $100K; homebred has trained solidly for this.

Chilada

Bothered early but like fact she has a local spin under the girth; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; has some things to iron out.

Shysheisnot

Tribal Rule about 16% with juvenile debuters in a 199-runner grid; sire graduated as older horse, took 2 of 4, banked nearly $80K; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; like the spacing of the drills; respect.

Writer Fever

Patiently placed as is Ellis's style; stakes placed 4 for 21 dam earned nearly $70K, was third in best juvenile result; several multiple race winners in the family; one was a double winner at 2; top earner Artic Sonnet banked over $100K, but needed 16 wins and 82 starts; would expect her in the picture late if at all.

Moscato Girl

Homebred ran decently to kick it off; dam was unraced; 3 of 4 siblings won; none won at 2 but kin Heat Trap took 2 of 5, earned over $100K; slight improvement and she will be right there.

Our Glitter Ball

Off poorly and it got worst from there; show horse in last took a MSW next out, 7th finisher took a maiden $25K claimer and 6th finisher was 2nd a nose in a $50K maiden claimer; dam 0 for 4; all 3 siblings won; top kin Offlee Wild Boys won twice at 2, banked $120K; hard to boost off dismal bow.

Global Hottie

Baffert takes shades off after miss was just a tad short; 5 for 10 dam took debut at 2, banked over $100K; all 6 siblings won; one race at 2 to no avail; one banked over $90K; the one to deny.

Betty Bing Bing

Love the spacing of the drills accentuated by the blowout on Wednesday; 4 for 12 dam earned $150K, didn't go at 2; both siblings won, neither at 2, one banked nearly $50K; no reason she will not improve today.

Unusual Style

Unusual Heat about 10% with juvenile first-timers in a 168-horse study; sire won juvenile debut going short in Europe, won multiple stakes; dam 0 for 8; several multiple race winners in the tree; one was a double winner at 2; top kin and full bro Lennyfromalibu won stakes, banked nearly $450K; she looks fit enough.

Euroclydon

Educated across town, but she seems comfortable with this surface; dam was unraced; lone half sis to race took debut at 1 for only score in a maiden $30K claimer here in 2011 with a 67 Beyer; needs to show more.

Race 9

Live the Forth

Interesting that Maldonado has ridden 4-year-old three times and she's won all three. Beaten favorite on the Turf Paradise turf last out but was in the money three straight on the main track before that. Enough speed to gain early position despite the inside slot.

Splendiferous Moon

Claimed for $12,500 by Jeff Mullins at Del Mar, rested and returns in the cellar. Trainer has fine stats first off a claim (23 per cent, $2.40 ROI) and moving from route to sprint (20 per cent, $2.82 ROI). Stretch runner will be helped by a 5-pound apprentice allowance.

Warren's Judy

Wide and divided a similar field last out and now switches to the leading rider. Bejarano has excellent stats for this trainer (26 per cent, $2.25 ROI). Has a preferred tracking style, however the Lake George filly has never run well on Cushion Track (4 0-0-0),

Totally Blonde

One for 21 lifetime and is blanking from 12 starts this year. Faced open company recently, however she's had little success against restricted claimers earlier in her career. Chance for a small piece if she runs back to her race before last.

Ribot Belle

Claimed in her last two, most recently for $12,500 by Paul Aguirre. Suspicious class drop, however the daughter of Roar worked :59 November 5 on Cushion Track, the best of 33 works at 5 furlongs. Had races that contend earlier in the year.

Unkept Rendez Vous (FR)

Off slowly then split a like group October 26 at Del Mar. Blinkers went on last time and they quickly are removed by Victor Garcia. Suffering through a two-year losing streak, but she did run well on a synthetic track at Del Mar.

Acute

Defeated several of these as the tepid 3-1 favorite in her Santa Anita finale. Has speed and likely can duplicate that effort for top trainer Mike Mitchell. Came back with a fine :48 1/5 on the Arcadia training track to emphasize her sharpness. Mitchell and Talamo are 19 per cent together.

Lia Juliana

Rallied for fourth last time, three lengths behind Acute. Took a pair last year but hasn't found the winners circle in 12 starts in 2013. Cat Dreams filly could be along for a piece of the purse and she's one of only three in the field with a victory on Cushion Track.

Wrinkle Room

Won a slow sprint here in July and has been buried in three subsequent starts. Dropped to this level for the first time at Barretts September 13 and finished 20 lengths behind. Trainer and rider are a combined 15 for 220 this year. Pass.

Rachels Belle

Good record, but all five victories have come at Los Alamitos. Badly overmatched in her last two in Southern California, so it's possible she'll improve at this price. Odds are, however, she's in over her head around these parts.

Mary Contrary

Been facing cheapies at Los Alamitos with moderate success. Claimed last out for $2,500 by a trainer who hasn't started a horse all year. Used to be competitive around here, but seems far away from that form.

Love Salah Dancer

Graduated for $20,000 in Pomona, then clipped heels and lost all chance in a $12,500 non-winners of two lifetime at Santa Anita. Deserves another look with a clean trip, especially factoring in the double class drop.

Smart Suzzet

Another Los Alamitos refuge who has fared poorly in the big leagues. Broke slowly and finished last, 17 lengths behind Acute most recently. In her previous start, she backed up on the bullring for the same price.

She's All Yours

Took a big class drop October 17 and responded with a stylish victory. Double drops off the win and one has to wonder how many good ones she has left. If you can overlook the pattern, mare has won five of 10 this year, 10 victories overall, and has a win on the Cushion.