Betfair Hollywood: Closer Looks for November 16, 2013

Race 1

Rock and Glory

Oct. 13 run at SA wasn't very pretty as she stumbled at the start, rushed up to duel and fell apart; however, you can be a bit forgiving about that, not only for those reasons, but also since it was her first start in over 13 months; well, now she's had that race, there's no layoff since, no panicky drop and she moves to what may be her preferred footing (won by 11 1/4 here last May); surely scary if able to get close to that kind of form again, though that's no small 'if', is it?

Silver Hustler

It's been a long time since her last win (on turf at CD in May 2012 but some decent races in the past few months show she's not out of her element; 2nd to a runaway winner on SA dirt at this level Oct. 13, and she was a clear 2nd; it's first time on synthetic but she's handled turf and you've seen many a turf horse move to this main track and flourish; also nice to see Stevens stays on a horse Kruljac felt good enough about 3 months to try in a distance turf stakes at DMR.

Changethechannel

Speed to be sure, and note a wire-to-wire win over this track a year ago; that was enough to earn a shot at the G2 Bayakoa, though she dueled and faded; still, it's more worrisome that after the Bayakoa she wasn't seen for over 9 months; at least has come back with a couple decent 3rds but she dueled and faded in each and she's again faced with opposing speed in the form of the rail mare so can she win that battle and still win the war?

Irish Presence

Very nice 2nd on dirt at SA Oct. 13; that being said, she's now up in class, racing above her coinditions; at least returns to synthetic, her favorite footing but her 2 wins came sprinting; at least that good SA try came routing and it may also mean she's come back a better filly than who we saw before the 2-month layoff.

Ms Pianist

2 for 2 on dirt, yes, but she owns a synthetic track win; that being said, her last 2 starts, both on turf, weren't too hot; of course, one came down the hill at SA vs. a tough bunch, and then she shipped to Arizona for a turf route stakes Oct. 26 but as the favorite failed to make an impact; back to SoCal and while it's a drop on paper she's still dealing with some tough customers, on a track over which she's never raced.

Race 2

Closet E

Turns back to sprint while dropping in for a tag for the initial time in his first one turn try since the weak Saratoga debut run; pricey colt has shown solid early foot and given how he's run on the green, maybe synthetic footing is the surface over which he will run best; one to consider.

Midnight Mayhem

Sire gets about 6% first out winners from his offspring and the dam was a 6 time sprint winner and 193K earner who dropped a limited sprint winner from 3 foals to race; colt has been drilling over the local main track and the barn does boast some recent success right out of the box.

Papa's Paisley

Hood comes off for the drop to this level after offering little late at Santa Anita in his first start for a tag; his synthetic efforts at Del Mar this summer weren't much, but he has been working better of late so it's possibile he could have a move forward in him today; maybe for a share.

New Order

Makes his first start since fading in his first start for a tag at Del Mar; gelding has been working well on dirt for his return to the races and the barn is profitable of late with its fresh runners; still, he'll get another new pilot today and will need to improve signifcantly off what he's shown thus far.

Common Confusion

Didn't get off to a great beginning when debuting with MSWs here in early summer and retreated late in that key heat; gelding boasts quick recent dirt drills for the comebacker and his barn boasts pretty sharp numbers with its fresh runners; he's kin to a few winners invluding G2 SW sprinter and 399K earner Rite Moment, so maybe he has some more to offer with the initial experience behind him.

Maximinus

Boasts a sharp dirt drill for the initial drop into the claiming ranks for a barn that boasts a big recent strike rate with this type; colt brings sprint speed to the table and he figures to be pushed hard from the bell with the big rider switch to Rosario; all 5 of his sibs to race are winners; one to catch and beat at this level.

Samurai Assault

Showed solid early interest before backing out of it against a better bunch first time out; colt returned to work sharply on the Santa Anita dirt and now he'll try a synthetic surface; experience can help him move forward and each of his sibs to race was a multiple sprint winner and 168K earner so he does have a right to have some ability.

Dream Totem

Barn does well with its newcomers but this guy's dirt drills don't appear to be anything special; sire gets just 7% winners from his first out runners, but the dam was a SW turfer and 104K earner prior to dropping multiple winners from each of her 4 foals to race including G2 SW and 251K earner Adios Charlie and 385K earner Streakin' Mohican whose 11 wins included 8 sprints; has a right to run some.

Ke in Motion

Gets shades for the drop to claimers off a debut fade against MSWs; barn doesn't do so well with its second out runners and this guy does draw outside again, but each of his sibs to race is a sprint winner and the G2 SP, SW dam banked 224K while taking 5 sprints so it woldn't be a surprise to see this guy show up with more today.

Race 3

Be Proud

Part of a strong Baffert 1-2 punch here (also sends out Georgia); have to like the way she's progressed and it's no surprise she's getting better with more ground; after all, daddy ran 2nd in the G1 Ky. Derby and G1 Preakness and his daughter Proud Spell was a multiple G1 route SW and champion 3yo filly; shown versatility, too, and while that big maiden win came on SA dirt, note 2 nice races on DMR's synthetic track, and while it isn't the same synthetic it at least gives you reason to believe she'll handle this place, too.

Georgia

Looked super blasting stablemate Be Proud going a mile on dirt at SA Sept. 27, and that win looks all the better since Be Proud came back to romp herself; handled DMR's synthetic track well so while it's first time here at least there's cause for optimism; been working along well and obviously the trip is no issue.

Arethusa

Maiden faces winners, which is already a hurdle, but this gal is dealing with the 2 gals who beat her easily in her last 2 - she was 3rd to Georgia, beaten 5 1/2 lengths, at SA Sept. 27, and 2nd to Be Proud, beaten 5 1/4 lengths, Oct. 27; bred to be any kind and it is encouraging a sharp guy like Harty opts to take a swing at this with her; heck, if she fails, no big whoop - just go back in vs. maidens next time; but since the race didn't come up all that strong (even the 2 Bafferts are maiden winners only) you can't blame 'em at all for taking a shot.

Pleasant Miss

Probably the most accomplished in here; after all, she's multiple SP including 2 times here - and those 2 came after her romping maiden win here in the spring; been trying turf of late and while she didn't run badly could be returning to this (synthetic) can get her back on track.

Perched

Maiden faces winners but she's SP and she was only a length behind Pleasant Miss in the Landaluce here July 13 so she's not a fish out of water; freshened since a slow start before being a well-beaten 3rd sprinting on BSR dirt Sept. 14; has handled this track, though she remains a question mark at this 2-turn game.

Saintly Joan

DMR debut Sept. 1 wasn't pretty at all but you can be forgiving; after all, not only was it her debut, but she was asked to do it routing....and then she was away terribly slowly to boot; came right back on SA dirt and ran like a pro so there's talent here; no O'Hara gives her another crack at a route and synthetic; certainly bred to be nice as her only sib is Iotapa (3 wins, $203K, SW, 2nd in G1 SA Oaks, twice G2 SP).

Race 4

Pantera Rojo

Sire is 0-for-23 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of an 0-for-1-grass dam; 2nd-time Long is often an improvement angle while he improved sharply 2nd-time out when placed on dirt; the debut runner-up finisher posted an 82 Beyer speed figure in his next-out SA-MSW win.

Even Echo

Sire is 1-for-17 with 1st-turf starters; is out of an 0-for-1-grass dam who produced no winners from 2 other foals to race (0-for-10) but neither foal raced on turf; expected more run in last when back in vs. MSW runners after the G1 loss.

Big Tire

Showed nothing in the trailed-throughout debut; adds 1.5F and switches to Hollywood Park green seeking a massive 2nd-time out improvement; the barn's 10% mark with 2nd-time starters since 2012 does not add to the appeal.

Bluegrass Fox Trot

Sire is 10-for-161 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of an 0-for-2-grass dam (4K); was primed for this in a 75K event where he ran well in defeat 1st time for a new trainer; has worked nicely on dirt for a 33%-winning 2YO barn.

Oh Brother Go

1st turf start was a troubled effort at long odds where he lost the rider; displayed zero gate speed in prior sprints while he worked smartly on BHP synthetic for this; the trainer is winless with his last 26-turf starters.

I'll Wrap It Up

Projects as the one to catch; removes blinkers trying to likely settle him down early; sire is 26-for-297 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 1-for-1 grass dam (46K) who's only other foal to race is 0-for-1 Grey Tapit who did not race on turf; try to catch the pick.

Enterprising

Sire is 34-for-405 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of an 0-for-1-grass dam; major-distance test but passed some rivals in the debut so should appreciate the added ground while the debut rider stays right here; improved worktab on synthetic for the green unveiling; contender.

Miraglo

Mild rally in the career debut while racing for a 24%-winning sprint-to-route trainer who has not done nearly as well with 2nd-time starters (1-for the last-17); good-dirt wotkout for this; keeps a 28%-win rider for the trainer and figures to be flying late for this.

Crushed It

Rallied nicely in the debut after breaking slowly when outrunning his 41-1 debut odds; new rider as the pilot of latest jockey sides with Life's Journey; big-post change breaking from post 1 in the unveiling; wish the workout for this enticed more.

Life's Journey

Field-best Beyer for last 1st time on turf when exploding in deep stretch; the debut runner-up finisher Beyered 82 in his next-out SA-MSW win; superb-dirt workout for this after the massive-wakeup call; clearly became a new runner on the lawn and is the one to beat.

Maxx the Kid

Middle moved in the loss to Life's Jouney in last and a well-timed ride seems needed to see best form; steady-BHP synthetic workout on display for a trainer 1-for the last-27 with 2-year-old starters; ran best from post 11 so likely improves now breaking outside again.

Go Black Tie

Sire is 5-for-60 with 1st-turf starters; 4-54 with 2-year-old debut runners; dam won 1-of-10 (28K) and 1-for-6 on grass producing 8 winners from 8 other foals to race including 3-grass winners including 112K-turfer Affair Dabbler; gives away experience and seasoning to each runner; prefer 1sters breaking outside rather than inside.

Race 5

Coco de Carchy

Took a major drop last out and finished a clear third despite trouble at the start. Might be coming back into form just in time for a return to Cushion Track (2 1-1-0). Two good works since ran and switches to Joe Talamo, who wins at 16 per cent with a $2.58 ROI for Bob Hess.

Make More Money

In the money all five starts, including twice since arriving in California. Just graduated for these connections and Mullins runs the Marino Marini filly back in a logical spot. Will benefit by lowest impost with apprentice Orozco up.

Friends With Macy

Got diploma in Pomona against $20,000 maidens, then faced better in her last pair. First time in a restricted claimer, blew out sharply, and Saul Arias knows her well. O'Neill has given the rider several shots and Arias has responded with a 20 per cent win mark.

Classic Journey

Shows speed at any distance and Paul Aguirre having an outstanding year at 21 per cent. Trainer also has terrific stats (35 per cent, $3.65 ROI) with the turf-to-synthetic maneuver. Won a maiden claimer at Santa Rosa, then weakened against much better in her last two. Threat with this kind.

Puff Pastry

Finally drops down after a series of duds racing against superior competition. This class drop to a restricted claimer should produce improvement. Trainer, rider are a good combination at 20 per cent winners. Third in two of three starts on Cushion Track. One of many contenders.

Summers Dignity

Class plunge last time, but no improvement. That race was at a mile, however, and the Edward Kano homebred may appreciate the shorter trip. Still, has her work cut out with a rider who is 2 per cent this year and a trainer who primarily wins at Los Alamitos.

Sunland Vintage

Virtually eased and claimed last March for $12,500. Above average works for return and blinkers go on. Kayla Stra has started strong this meeting (2-for-6) and trainer has done well (17 per cent) with limited opportunities. Outsider, but not impossible.

Tizhardtoget

In three starts, has the best Beyers in the lineup. Victory for $40,000 maiden claiming last time translates well in this $16,000 non-winners of two lifetime. Maldonado moves to Hair On Fire, but Bisono rode this one in her first start earlier in the year. Nice fit.

Hair On Fire

Fractious in the post parade and dropped back to last at two levels higher. Interesting that Maldonado, who rode the Bernstein filly to a romping win at Barretts, retains the mount for Doug O'Neill. In the money 6-of-11. First time on Cushion Track.

Citizen Jane

Been competitive against much better and today's drop should put the Ohio bred in the thick of the battle at a decent price. Trainer has a solid record (18 per cent, $3.35 ROI) with runners returning in this time frame.

Clearly Confused

Tough loss in a restricted $12,500 claimer one back, then regressed at the same level last out and was claimed by Robertino Diodoro. Worked a half-mile in :46 4/5 for her new connections, but probably would have to improve to be competitive.

Race 6

Tebowing

Back at her $32,000 purchase price after two non-competitive outings. Canani tries a rider change to Sutherland-Kruse and put a strong 5-furlong drill (:59 3/5) into her, but it's difficult to envision a form reversal after watching her last pair.

Distant Image

Last victory was on the Betfair Hollywood Park lawn, where the Decarchy filly has scored twice in four tries. Sharpened up in sprints her last two and gets a significant rider change to Corey Nakatani. Over the last two years, Nakatani has won 3-of-10 for Vladimir Cerin with a $3.88 ROI.

Perfecta

Wide trip in latest, but showed little spark down the lane. Class drop by Mandella makes sense and may have needed her last. Surprisingly, Joe Talamo has had little success (4 per cent, $0.22 ROI) for this barn. Hard to predict what to expect from her today.

Spiced Latte

Idle since January and returns with a new trainer (Mike Puype), who is 25 per cent and a $2.20 ROI with his new acquisitions. Retains fine turf rider Brice Blanc and has finished first or second all six starts at this distance. Good enough if ready.

Lilly's Perfect

Shuffled farther back than usual in her Santa Anita finale and closed strongly for third. Claimed for $12,500 one back by Kristin Mulhall, but had beaten much better in previous starts. Fine record on the local grass (5 2-1-0), and retains Bejarano, who was in the irons for her last two wins.

Hero's Marine

Small, but normally productive stable suffering through a miserable year, winning with just one of 26 starters. Broke her maiden going long on the bullring, then finished dead last in her first start on turf at Santa Anita. Searching for proper level, but this probably isn't it.

Mia Isabel

More than paid her way with five victories in 18 starts and earnings of more than $170k. Hasn't been out since March, however, and comes back at a career low. Steady work pattern for return, though the drills are on the slow side. O'Neill below average with 6-month plus layoffs.

Song of a Witch

Only outing around two turns resulted in a 21-length loss. Also unproven on turf and for this price. Only positive is trainer, rider team, which has combined for a $9.57 return on investment over the last two years.

Warren's Internet

Never raced this far, but Jorge Gutierrez has popped with big-price winners moving from sprint to route ($3.79 ROI). Must hustle from the outside post but should dictate the fractions. Strong rider will attempt to hold her together.

Race 7

Anxious Times

Exits an above average race where he was compromised by a wide trip; his sire twice won the Breeders' Cup Classic and 6.42 million; the dam won 3 of 8 attempts and 95K; among the winning siblings is 81K earner Dream Man.

Chitu

Some superior workouts on view for this firster, son of multiple G1 victor Henny Hughes, a winner of 1.12 million (his progeny have scored in 33 out of 213 debuts); the dam won her only start and 6K; sib to 63K earner Oceanway.

Big Medicine Man

Aided by quick fractions, he finished strong in the last run just missing the place; his sire won the G1 Santa Anita Derby and 616K; the dam won 1 of 12 and 70K; among the winning siblings is 799K earner Red Lead.

Fuzzy Logic

Ran as a team with Big Medicine last month; his sire won 597K including G1 success while the dam was unraced; winning siblings include 99K earner Hand I Was Dealt; worth some follow-up today.

Wrightwood

Broke slowest in his unveiling in September and never recovered but returns with Lasix today; his sire won multiple G3s and 413K; the dam won 1 of 21 and 171K; this is her only foal to compete.

Top Fortitude

Beginner turned in a sharp drill from the gate on 10/24; his sire won a G3 and 445K (offspring of Top Hit have done well first time out winning 17 out of 52); the dam went zero for 2; winning siblings include 691K earner Uh Oh Bango.

Relative Time

Respectable showing on the turf 3 weeks ago; his brilliant sire won multiple G1s and 2.94 million; the dam won 1 of 10 and 56K; there are no winning siblings to mention; can be a major late presence this afternoon.

Melatonin

Fine first try when pressing the issue a long way; his sire won multiple G1 sprints and 1.66 million; the dam won 4 of 16 and 92K; winning siblings include 50K earner Caribbean Reign; dangerous if early fractions are ordinary.

Sams Blue Cat

Claimed out of an even first effort; his sire won 1.76 million including a G1 tally while the dam won 10 of 34 and 284K; among the winning siblings is 68K earner Toccet Man; improving set of half-mile drills since the purchase.

Three Point Luke

Descendants of Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker, who amassed 1.98 million, have scored in 41 out of 363 initialstarts; the dam won 1 of 11 and 52K; winning sibs include 15K earner Rhetoric.

Pimpernel

Another Baffert beginner who has been training well; the colt's sire won multiple G3s and 413K (descendants of Elusive Quality are 93 for 606 as far as winning their first test); the dam, an outstanding sprinter, won 2.38 million; sib to 117K earner Elusive Heat.

Test Ride

Curious item gets major class relief but is burdened with a difficult post today in a field with some promising beginners; set decent fractions in a G2 attempt 2 races back; can prove to be the right stalker to fear.

Frosted Boss

His sire won multiple G1s on the turf en route to earning a total of 831K (progeny of Street Boss have won 18 out of 90 debuts); the dam won 7 of 25 and 201K; winning siblings include 108K earner Sandy Key Gal.

Fulmerized

Sired by Dunkirk who won 2 of 5 and 393K (his offspring have won 3 of 33 initial attempts); the dam won 4 of 13 and 87K; among the winning siblings is 76K earner Hello Monday; decent gate workout recently should help her prospects.

Cherubim

See Chitu, above, for information about the same talented sire; the dam involved won 2 of 19 and 99K; this is her only foal to race; strong work tab this month suggests she is at the ready but will need much luck to make it to the starting gate.

Race 7

Pearl de Vere

If you're looking for the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here, she has it, and even though her one start over turf wasn't an encouraging performance, that was a route attempt; third finisher from latest won next out at SA on 10/27 going 6 1/2f vs. MSW rivals with an 84 Beyer.

Escape Act

The long layoff is a concern, but there's nothing wrong with what this miss has done in her three turf starts, and the runner up from her latest race returned to win next out at SA on 3/30 going 6 1/2f in a 200k stakes with a 95 Beyer.

Our Pure Creation

Have to respect what this filly has shown in her first three starts and like the idea of her making her first start sprinting over turf; she has a live look to her in this spot and she benefits from the services of the hot-riding Bejarano.

Golden Production

She has a chance to prove to be a sharp 40k claim for her current connections and she's out of a G3 stakes placed dam who won 5 of 32 turf starts for 171k; she deserves to be listed among the contenders.

Small Moves

She brings a high degree of early speed with her but this looks like it might prove to be a tough spot for her to give turf another try, and it isn't like she ran all that well in her one turf try before this.

Lucky Student

She's another who owns the early speed to impact the way that this race shapes up but to this point in time she's been better off racing over dirt or a synthetic surface than she is over turf.

Black Witch

Majestic Warrior has been a poor influence as a turf sire and this filly produced a poor performance in her one turf attempt before now; can't help but feel that she looks like more of an outsider.

Atta Girl Alma

Don't like to see her losing the services of Bejarano to another in here, but this filly has run well in her two starts over this turf course, and Delgado has won with 4 of 10 mounts for this barn in 2013.

J K's Mischief

Her recent form has been improved but she's going to have to take a noticeable step forward if she's to have a chance at seeing her number posted on top after this one is run; looking toward others.

Blushing Martha

Like to see that she's gotten the job done in three of seven turf starts, but she's another trying to overcome a long layoff, and this might prove to be a tough step up in class for her after being claimed for 32k from her latest outing; runner up from latest won next out at SA on 3/16 going 6 1/2f over turf vs. 25-22.5k claimers with a 75 Beyer.

Madre Luna

She has a strong pedigree for turf and she's been a consistent performer, but her best effort appears to be a cut or two below what will be needed to win this; feel that a minor award is probably the ceiling.

Race 9

Krazy for Kugel

Off slowly to kick it off, now she has to deal with the inside; place horse in debut won at this level next out and the 10th finisher graduated next out but only in a maiden $3500 claimer at Los Al; 0 for 9 dam third in best moment; there is a 7 for 42 performer in the family but that one earned less than a grand a start; has some things to prove.

Nezi O's Gold

Only a brief threat last time and never thrilled to see the defeats at Fresno; mare had to be off for over a year for a pretty serious reason and she has lost ground in the lane in every race this year; must hustle.

Magic Number

Considering the winner last time was clear by daylight, the race was not all that bad; connections would not mind if she starts acting like top kin Nijino Muko, who earned nearly $175K in Japan; could see her sitting 7 or 8 off a moderate pace; the speed will have to come back.

Red Red Door

Homebred dips down in class and it's logical after several non-efforts; 5 for 26 dam banked nearly $180K; lone half bro to race Stone Hot took 3 of 22, earned over $70K; the winner of last took an N1X here on Monday and the place horse graduated down the hill in an MSW 11/3 with a 79 Beyer; respect.

Silver Gun Girl

Mare gave it her best shot in the Pomona debut but has gone the dreaded other way since; the blood is decent here as two siblings banked 6 figures including over $200K earner Onefunsonofagun; she did bobble in last but note the speed she flashed 3 back; don't ignore.

Consent

She has the two races under the girth now and she can flash more speed if in the mood; backers can hang their hat on fact both siblings won multiple times, but neither was special; midpack mentality has been a concern so far.

Charger Girl

Boxcars on the tote every time and is looking at the same fate; nothing but minor race winners in the tree; backers have to hope they go bonkers early and the race falls completely apart.

Kylee's Star

Soph has trained well for her first start offered for sale; she still has some work to do to match top kin, 2 for 21 racer and near $40K earner Silver Jazz; decent move last Monday, if she has any talent, the day to show it should be here.

Lemonade Springs

Wraps added for the last pair and not sure how you spin this form in the right direction; she has to be considered a disappointment as she follows sibling and over $300K earner My Maloof Rocker; can't endorse.

Soul Searcher

Was pretty cold on the tote for a Mitchell to kick it off but the hillside is a tricky place to debut; dam was out of the money in only try; 1 of 4 siblings won; that runner, Really Nice, took 12 of 38, earned nearly $170K; got a feeling we have not seen the best of this one.

Paralyzing Eyes

Even after the decent third two back at the Fair, fans backed off to the tune of 38-1 and they were dead right; note this rider was up the first time she was offered for a tag; could be the bomb in the gimmicks.

Lovely in Laguna

A bad actress at the gate last time when the wraps were added; 2 for 13 dam earned less than a grand a start; this is her first to make it to the races; miss only cost a grand.

Warren's My Queen

The good news is she was third at this demanding distance once; the bad news obviously is she has had 33 chances to show her stuff and she s still a maiden; nothing wrong with the draw here, but after so many disappoints, the upside is just very hard to see.