Betfair Hollywood: Closer Looks for November 15, 2013

Race 1

Mr Lemon Tree

His most recent start has the feel of a toss out as he's been consistent as a rule; however, the race might simply prove to be a on the strong side; the time was certainly quick; in addition, the winner of that race came back in his next start to take a $25K optional claimer at SA with a Beyer Figure of 78, and then proceeded to run second in a first-level allowance, also at SA, with a Beyer of 84; contender.

I'll Fly for You

He's another who is consistent as a rule, but did not fire last out in same quick turf race as rail horse; the winner came back to take a $25K optional claimer at SA with a Beyer Figure of 78, then ran second in a first-level allowance, also at SA, with a Beyer of 84; is back sprinting on the main track, site of his best recent finishes.

Dreamnofatticus

He's yet another consistent sort and like that he has an age edge on a number of these as he is 4; exits a quick race and like that he has been sprinting as opposed to the other seasoned runners to his inside, who will both be turning back in distance; he might get the jump on those foes; will be making his second start in blinkers; win candidate.

High On Final

By a Grade 1 winner of $761K who is getting 11 percent debut winners; dam was a multiple stakes winner of $669K and from four foals to race she has produced four winners, the most accomplished stakes winner Super Ability ($146K); big work Oct. 29.

Bosque Angel

By a winner of $46K who is getting 19 percent debut winners from a limited sample; dam was unraced and from two foals to race she has produced two winners; huge half-mile work in his final prep Nov. 4; debuts later in life and that can be a physical advantage.

San Onofre

He gives up recency to some of these as he has not started since last December; has turned in some strong six-furlong works for his return and does own the field's best last-race Beyer Figure, which was earned at 2; also brings good speed to the table and gets a tactical gate; appears to be a win candidate.

Do Some Magic

By a multiple Grade 1 winner of $3M who is getting 12 percent debut winners; dam was a four-time winner who earned $134K, and from five foals to race she has produced four winners; shows nice series of works for barn that wins with firsters.

Race 2

U R My Candy Girl

Could be she's ready to turn the corner; showed talent on this track in the spring with a couple 2nds and her last run, at SA Oct. 14, showed maybe she needed blinkers all along as she broke slowly and finished very well for 2nd; so, she comes here sharp, with improving forma nd has already shown she likes it here; makes her look like a player, doesn't it?

Visions of Candy

Away slowly from a brutal post at SA Sept. 29 but to her credit she kept to her task while wide to get 4th; still, she finished well behind a couple of today's rivals so she still has plenty of ground to make up on them; at least worked steadily since and her lone local try did produce her career-top Beyer (61).

Bluegrass Girls

Unable to make much of a dent in first 2 starts; in her defense, those WERE just her first 2 outigns; still, her lack of speed is cause for concern as in both starts she left herself with far too much to do; did at least run on decently in her lone synthetic track try, though that was sprinting at DMR whereas today we're routing on a different type of synthetic track.

Kevin's Kool Kat

Might be ready to bust through; sure ran well here (2nd) last Dec. 9 but then came 8 months off; ran OK at DMR but improved with 2 2nds at SA; those last 2 show she's back on track and they were also her first routes, so the trip suits; and, as noted, she ran well here 11 months ago so she should have no issue with the footing; 2 works since bode well, and note she beat a few of these in those 2 SA races as well.

Luando

Flashed talent in NoCal running 2nd in her STK dirt sprint debut and then 3rd on GG synthetic for this price Oct. 31; not only did Chew see fit to claim her that day but now he brings her south instead of leaving her at GG; puts her in for the same price, but it's first time here and first time routing so the hurdles are not insignificant.

Gin Jan Lizzie

Tough to build a case; was no factor in first 2 starts, though note much was expected in either (52-1 each time); showed no speed either time so both times she left herself with far too much to do; at least there's no layoff and she's worked 3 time since but a big step forward is required just to get her into the mix.

Rsweet Serendipity

Been steadily moving down the class ladder; trouble is, that hasn't really brought about a corresponding improvement in form; tries a route again and gets blinkers added for this; is at least kin to Drought Breaker (6 wins, 5 routing, $213K, SW), Chief Trader (2 wins, 1 routing) and a full to Grey Seas Rising (winner).

Lethal Miss

Came back after 7 months with a big drop to this level and that brought about 3 much-improved outings as she ran 2nd at DMR, then 3rd twice at SA; that being said, it's not as if she was a real threat in the lane in those 3 as she was still beaten by 2 3/4, 3 1/4 and 6 1/4 lengths, and in the last 2 finished 1 and 4 1/4 lengths behind 'Kool Kat; lack of speed is an issue but at least her last 3 show she'll keep coming

Chocolate Mountain

Difficult to be too enthused; 5 starts, yet to be a factor really at any point; 2 of those came routing and while 4 came on dirt her lone synthetic track try (at DMR last summer) was dull (last of 12, beaten 22 3/4 lengths); did work nicely at SA Nov. 10 (3fs in :35.40) but she's got a lot of work to do to be sure.

Race 3

Tree of Life

Off the board in only 2 turf starts but remember the first came in a G3 here a year ago (ran 5th) and the other came in a very tough optional claimer at DMr Aug. 11 (winner No Jet Lag came back to win the G1 City of Hope Mile at SA); still, that may mean that while he handles turf it's not really his favorite game and while there is a class drop today it's still a tough bunch.

This One's for Mel

Held sharp form all year and all that action has come on turf; that includes a sharp 2nd on this course June 16; of course, he's already handled TAM turf, GG turf, DMR turf and SA turf so there was no reason to really worry if he could handle this place; ample tactical speed but he's by no means a need-the-lead type.

Imperative

Finisehd strongly to be 2nd for $40K at DMR July 20, and the horse he chased home (Magic Channel) came right back to win; that being said, he hasn't been seen since so that's a bit worrisome; after all, that run hinted he was doing well but then he missed all that turf race at DMR and then again at SA; at least he returns UP in price today with some steady works the past couple months; winless in 3 turf tries, yes, but that good July 20 turf run shows he handles grass.

Sinfully

Packs a pretty darn good punch in the lane; not only did it carry him to victory at SA Oct. 31 but DeLeon saw fit to claim him that day, too (for $40K); of course, by virtue of moving up over 50% in value it means this is a tougher spot but could be DeLeon bought at the right time, just as this guy is getting things all figured out.

Persuasive Paul

Tough, toiugh beat at SA Oct. 31 as he did all the dirty work up front and got nailed late by today's foe Sinfully right on the line; still finished well clear of 3rd; you have a SW here so this guy has quallity and now in 2 turf starts he's won by a head and run 2nd beaten a neck, so the sod is just fine; like that O'Neill moves him up 50% in value and Steiner handles him nicely.

Boyett

Dueled up front on turf at SA Oct. 11 and while no match for big winner This One's for Mel (a foe here) he stayed on well for 2nd; remember, too, that was his first start on turf, first route and first action of any kind in 3 months so he's eligible to improve; showed in his prior starts, all dirt sprints, he can make up ground, too; Glatt bumps him up in price and Bejarano stays put, and this guy has the speed to flee this outside slot.

Race 4

Illybilly Boy

Declining-career Beyer speed figure pattern including latest-last place finish on dirt; posted his best Beyer on a synthetic surface which he returns to for this; good-dirt workout leading into today hoping the removal of blinkers will help the cause.

Persisting

Sire is 53-for-458 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 2-for-14 dam (91K) who produced 2 winners from 3 other foals to race including G2-SW Thunder Moccasin (2-for-2, 114K); the 0-for-11 debut trainer since 2012 does not add to the appeal.

Papa Smitty

Figures to fly out of the gate with Still Unbroken then both hope to hold off the closers; some runners improve dramatically 2nd-time out and his trainer has a very-good 23%-win mark with this angle; new rider wins 32% for the barn at BHP; view as a major-pace presence.

Still Unbroken

Figures to chase Papa Smitty to the lead then hopes the new blinkers will help provide better stamina in the lane; prined for this at longer the new surface is the major issue however his trainer yields 21%-synthetic winners since 2012; adds blinkers trying to remain more focused; defeated 2 next-out winners in the debut (57-51 Beyers); the one to beat.

Deli Dude

Slight 2nd-time out speed-figure improvement when outrun by Still Unbroken; the 5th and 6th-place finishers from last Beyered 57-51 in next-out GG-20K and $12,500-maiden claiming wins; wish the BHP worktab impressed more heding into this.

Infosec

Debut-show finish represents the field's best Beyer speed figure; today's added distance is a plus while working very well on dirt and over today's BHP oval for this; the trainer yields 35% winners with maiden-claiming starters and 29% with 2nd-time starters improvement seems a strong possibility on the pick.

Tax Enough

1st time in a maiden claimer the MSW-class drop is considered as the biggest-class reduction in racing; the 3-back winner Beyered 74 in a next-out DMR-100K stakes win; wish we more impressed by his BHP worktab for this.

Primal Revival

Sire is 7-for-31 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of an 11-for-34 dam (150K) who produced 1 winner from 3 other foals to race (2-for-21 Pray Meeting 30K); posted steady-morning workouts in a race without any superstars in it; projects as the best 1ster in the field.

Candiz

Sire is 2-for-15 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 2-for-4 dam (31K) who produced 2 winners from 2 other foals to race including 16K-earner Saltwater M D (1-for-3); the 1-for-19-debut trainer since 2012 does not add to the appeal.

Western Showdown

Has been unable to repeat his career-best Beyer from the debut on today's BHP oval; the 3-back runner-up finisher Beyered 50 in his next-out BSR-MSW win then repeated in an SA-starter alw with a 70 speed figure; has been working forwardly on dirt for this for a trainer winless with his last 26 two-year-old starters.

Long Black Cloud

Sire is 22-for-189 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 2-0-0-0 dam who produced no winners from 2 other foals to race (0-for-24 combined 26K); have mixed reviews from the worktab but prefer 1sters breaking outside rather than inside.

Race 5

Silic's Valley

Lone victory was a 37-1 upset at Del Mar 15 months ago. Since then, the Silic mare has run seven times without hitting the board. Idle since February and returns for a new trainer who is only batting 6 per cent this year. Slow works, hard to like.

Derby Memo

One-for-32 record doesn't inspire confidence. Picked up the pieces for second against better one start back in Pomona, then could beat only one when dropped in class at Fresno October 12. Trainer and jockey are a combined 11-for-213 this year. Outside chance for a small share.

Miss Judged

Been on a steady decline since being claimed for $30,000 from her debut in January. Blinkers come off for the first time since that initial start. Should be sitting no worse than third and might get first run. Rider, trainer have teamed up to win 18 per cent with a flat-bet profit since January, 2012.

Holiday N Newport

Only victory was going 4 furlongs in Pomona against $25,000 maiden claimers. Likely pacesetter may have trouble negotiating this added distance, but today's double drop should help. Pender and Pedroza have done very well together at this track over the last two years (17 per cent, $2.34 ROI).

Dolphin Shorts

Was deprived of a fair start and declared a non-starter October 18. Should get a stalking trip under Talamo, who was aboard for the Langfuhr filly's maiden victory at Del Mar. Strong contender with a clean break.

Willetta

Graduated on Cushion Track, but it was around two turns and the time was subpar. Showed she can handle the distance in her previous start when second against $20,000 maiden claimers. Look for a late finish if the pace comes up hot.

Jolly Green Bean

One victory was against bottom-level maidens at Santa Anita in 2011. Sixth three times and seventh three times in her last six starts. Trainer only 2-for-41 this year and rider only 6 per cent. Only plus is fast, recent half-mile drill in :47 November 9.

Flashy Dame

Drops to a new low after finishing third in a $25,000 non-winners of two lifetime October 20. Decent record on this track (6 1-1-2), including a 6 1-2-length victory against maiden special weights 17 months ago. Weight off with apprentice Nicolas and blinkers go on for Pete Eurton. Good fit with these.

Diocesan Policy

Kentucky bred won her debut in Ireland earlier this year but hasn't been close in five American starts. Moves further down for Doug O'Neill but already shows a loss for $8,000 at the Pomona Fair. 3-year-old needs a wakeup call.

Tiz Anna

Close second as the favorite last out one level lower. Broke her maiden sprinting on Cushion Track during the summer and has finished in the money each of her four starts in Inglewood. Capable apprentice up for Vladimir Cerin. Outside post the main negative.

Race 6

Majestic Lady

Majestic Warrior 9 for 82 with juvenile firsters; sire won debut at 2, took Grade 1 Hopeful for the other score, earned over $220K; dam took one route as older horse; the 4 siblings to race are a combined 0 for 17; she looks fit enough.

Cacica Dulima

She hooked daylighter when freezing on the tote; dam won in second start at 2, banked nearly $60K; 3 of 4 siblings won, none at 2, one banked nearly $80K; at least she kept her legs moving since the bow; must pick it up.

Lunch Hour

Medaglia d'Oro about 12% with juvenile debuters in a 193-runner sample; sire 2nd in only out at 2, won multiple G1s on way to over $5.7 million career; Grade 1 winning 5 for 15 dam won 3 times at 2, banked nearly $800K; the G3 winning sibling to win Second City took 4 of 12, didn't go at 2, banked almost $200K; she seems to be comfortable with this surface.

Red Barris

Those high-priced maiden claimers can come up dicey and she ran pretty well; dam out of the money in only out; all 3 siblings won; two won at 2 including SW and over $100K earner Kinz Funky Monkey; clever move on the 6th; don't sell too short.

Live for Now

Tiznow about 7% with juvenile debuters in a 314-runner sample; sire race at 2, earned over $6.4 million as a double BC Classic hero; SW 4 for 17 dam won twice at 2, banked over $100K; several multiple race winners in the tree, 3 won at 2 including a debut winner; future bright as kin to multiple G1 winner and near $4 million earner Point Given; like the spacing of the drills.

Artemis

Empire Maker about 10% with juvenile debuters in a 148-runner sample; sire took debut at 2, won Belmont on way to near $2 million wallet; dam was unraced; lone half bro to race lost 7 times; she looks fit enough with several drills at this distance.

Streaming

Smart Strike about 14% with juvenile firsters in a 385-runner sample; sire didn't go at 2, won a Grade 1, over $330K; 3 for 4 dam didn't go at 2, banked about $70K; all 4 sibs won; half sis Cascading took debut at 2 and won a stakes; major threat.

Abide in Me

Youngster should have her sea legs under her by now; dam out of the money in only start; lone half bro to race Triple Cross took 3 of 18, won nearly $200K, all the wins came at 2; should be around the wire again.

Among the Stars

Harbor the Gold 13 for 87 with juvenile firsters; sire took 2 of 9, both dirt routes, won at 2, earned almost $70K; 1 for 11 dam was out of the money in lone juvenile out; all 4 sibs won; 2 won at 2 including a debut winner; drills ideally spaced.

Screen Goddess

Giant's Causeway about 9% with juvenile debuters in a 296-runner sample; sire won juvenile debut by 7 and took a Group 1 at 2; dam was unraced; one of 3 sibs won; that runner, Star Billing, took 3 of 12, banked over $400K, didn't go at 2; note Stevens 27% in the last year or so when getting a leg up from Proctor.

Race 7

Camp Victory

Grade 1 winner couldn't get it done as the chalk in his last two and front wraps were added for the first time in his career in his latest at Turf Paradise; no real excuses in either race and it has been over a year since he crossed the wire first; Diodoro has solid stats with horses going from a route to a sprint but we're going to look in other directions.

A Toast to You

4-year-old likes this course and he is coming off a sharp win in a $100K stakes race for Cal-breds coming down the hill; it was a solid field and Starspangled Heat, sixth, won an $80K optional race in his next start with a 93 Beyer Speed Figure; this guy should have an honest pace to work with an could easily double up with Gutierrez sticking with him over Et Tu Walker; big shot.

Gonna Fly Now

Lightly-raced 4-year-old almost won the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien on Polytrack and it ever rained in Southern Cal and this moved to the main track he would clearly be the one to beat; first time turf and his sire is just 8/141 with first time turfers; dam didn't fire the only time she tried it; this is her first foal; a younger sib has a 0-3-0 record from 5 starts on the lawn; Sadler 14% with 1st time turf runners the past 5 years; not out of the question.

Kingpin Ryno

No wins in well over a year and he is coming off two dull races at this level at Del Mar; he did have excuses in both of his races but he'll probably need to equal or better his career-best Beyer Speed Figure to contend here; the past five years Litt has won with 2 of his last 6 coming back in this time period but this guy does seem a bit overmatched here; passing.

Silver Dragon

He broke his maiden coming off a longer layoff last year so we know he can fire fresh; we always hate to see them go to the bench coming off a win, however, and its not like this is an easy spot; horse that finished third in his latest won a first-level allowance race in his next start but hasn't fired since and just got waxed in a $32K claimer at Santa Anita Nov.3; since 2009 Ekins is 2/40 with horses coming back from a layoff of 180 days or more; passing.

Truest Legend

Another one coming back from a long layoff following a big effort; nice set of works showing but it isn't easy coming back from this type of layoff and the past five years Mullins has a 7% strike rate with horses that have been away for a year or more; no wins on turf is a concern but he is the speed of the field and he could take them a long way if he breaks alertly; tough call.

Et Tu Walker

He didn't get beat by all that much when he was favored in an $80K optional race coming down the hill and he could make amends with the move to this course where he has won half of his starts; he can also stalk and doesn't need to get involved right from the start like he did in his latest; toss his race in the Grade 3 Eddie D and he's been pretty reliable; the pick.

El Mirage King

He's pretty honest and he finished in front of Et Tu Walker in his latest but he does lack athewinning habit; his best races have been when he's been able to get involved early and he could have his hands full if Truest Legend comes back as good as he left; maybe for the exotics, but that's about it.

Royal F J

He isn't the most consistent horse around and he's had 13 tries over this course and is still looking for his first win here; he is coming off a big effort to just miss behind Starspangled Heat in his latest and similar effort would certainly put him in the mix; just not sure he's going to get the kind of trip he needs and he doesn't always put races together; however.

Circa'sgoldengear

6-year-old seems to have lost a step this year but he had been off for a couple of months when he finished a close fourth in A Toast to You's win in the $100K California Flag at Santa Anita and it is easy to imagine him moving forward in his second start back; he just missed the last time he ran here but his form was a lot sharper then; outside post doesn't help his chances; prefer others.

Race 8

Distort This

Claimed for $32,000 in April and returns in the basement seven months later with just four workouts showing. Strong pilot takes over but trainer is blanking from limited starters first off a claim and with six-month plus comebackers. Iffy proposition from the rail.

Afleet Cowboy

Terrible form this year and last four starts were particularly bad. Still has a semblance of speed, but has backed up quickly recently. Third in both starts on Cushion Track. Pedroza rides back.

Dugan Bill

Seventh in last three starts while in a class free fall. Can't drop any lower around these parts, so this may be his last chance on a major circuit. In his favor, the 5-year-old owns a victory on Cushion Track, Paul Aguirre does well (17 per cent) moving from route to sprint and this trainer, rider duo has good stats at this track (19 per cent, $2.82 ROI).

Broadway Nika

Good position, put into a drive on the turn and tired to fourth as the favorite against similar October 19. Broke his maiden on Cushion Track May 11 and was fairly competitive in his next three at a higher level. Probably should have run better when dropped to this tag last time, but may have needed the race.

Justa Gusta

Trouble at the start in two of his last three and hitting rock bottom today for Steve Knapp. A repeat of his next-to-last start would make him formidable and this trainer, rider team has an impressive $6.14 ROI over the last 23 months.

Bigbari

Didn't repeat big victory on the bulling September 22 when finishing fourth in an $8,000 starter allowance in his next outing at Fresno. Unreliable, but does like Cushion Track (3 1-1-0) and came back to work four times since his last start.

Position A

Old timer is a shell of the horse who finished in the money eight of 10 starts on CushionTrack. He's now gone more than two years without a victory. Last three were particularly awful and it's unlikely a drop to the bottom will help him at this point.

Warren's Rail Bird

Both lifetime victories came at this distance, but the 5-year-old regressed badly in his last two. They were, however, starter allowance races and the drop to open $8,000 might wake him up. Winless in five Cushion Track starts, but finished second twice and third once.

Sandys Diamond

Took a suspicious class drop off a good race last out and finished a troubled fifth. Now drops again, not a healthy pattern. Certainly good enough on figures and Mario Gutierrez stays with him. Tough call.

Da Ruler

Once a promising sprinter for Bob Baffert, Roman Ruler horse returned from a layoff with a new trainer in August and has run three terrible races. Seems to have lost his speed and just looks listless. Would be a surprise, despite the class drop.

Centenario de Oro

Vied for the lead before tiring to last in a grass miler October 19. Back at his best distance today, takes a significant class drop and broke his maiden on this track last year. Good work since his last and could rebound.

Hey Yup

Once had speed, but now comes from behind. Shipped to Fresno October 10 for a victory over $8,000 non-winners of two lifetime, then finished last in his next start when hopelessly overmatched at 107-1 at Santa Anita. Back at the bottom and his best race gives him a shot.

Bertran Hill

Cushion Track specialist is 3-for-12 on this surface and 0-for-21 elsewhere. Only try at this level resulted in a second place effort and ran the best two races of his life under today's rider, Edwin Maldonado. Best race puts him right there.

Street Car

Sharpest current form in the field with an easy victory for this price in Pomona and a neck loss in a starter allowance at Fresno. Last two victories were under Orozco and the Street Cry gelding could be long gone from the outside.

Hasty Trend

If his last three races are any indication, the Florida bred has very little chance. Well beaten by several of these recently and has low-percentage connections. Big price if draws into the field.

Decarchy's Trieste

Won a pair on the front end at Ruidoso and the California bred returns to his native state. Was distanced in his two starts at Betfair Hollywood Park and probably should have shipped to Los Alamitos, where he finished third for $3,500 in June.