Betfair Hollywood: Closer Looks for November 10, 2013

Race 1

Queen of the Hill

Last two were way off par, however the Salt Lake filly has been freshened and has four terrific workouts including a half-mile in :47 and five furlongs in :59. The grey won on this race track in April and her trainer has a substantial flat bet profit ($3.25 ROI) on synthetic tracks.

Inner Groove

Drops to a career low after being claimed by Jack Carava for $25,000 four starts back. Didn't do much in her last pair, but the 6-year-old has run well on Cushion Track (4 1-1-1) and lures Bejarano. Over the last two years, Carava is 25 per cent with Bejarano. The class drop might be just the thing she needs.

Sugar Spice

Tavasco mare always pops the gate and been been effective at or around this level. Two of her three victories have come on synthetic tracks. She was third in her lone Cushion start a year ago. Espinoza has gotten the most from her and returns again for Vann Belvoir.

Yuma Thurman

Distant second at Fresno at this level October 6 and all three lifetime victories have come in northern California. She didn't run particularly well in her one start on this track, though it was against better. Capable rider and trainer, but would probably have to improve in this spot.

Scary Fast

Ultra game victory in a restricted claimer October 3, her second win in a row. The main obstacle seems to be the surface. The Harris Farms homebred is two-for-two on dirt and zero for three on synthetic tracks. Still, she's sharp, Pedroza rides back and must be given a chance.

Psalm Sixteen

Daylight winner going long at Santa Anita October 31, but that was against $8,000 claimers. It's a big jump to $12,500 and the Songandaprayer filly would have to up her game if she is to repeat. She can sprint, however. Rider has only had two mounts this year without a victory.

Rossi Reserve

Hard-knocking mare has finished among the top three in 11 of 15 starts this year. Her last fiasco can be discarded, as she was overmatched, at the wrong level and away very slowly. She's normally in the race early and deserves another chance back where she belongs.

Secret Genius

Sharp earlier in the year, but has fallen on hard times lately. Trainer Steve Knapp is hoping a rejoining with jockey Orlando Mojica, who was aboard for her last victory, will rekindle the 4-year-old's interest.

Race 2

Bushwacked

Inside speed but could not make the lead in last when handled by Battle Jet; needs the front end to see best form but has Takem by Surprise to fend off early for this; gets his 5th new rider in as many races which is not a good-win angle; best BHP-synthetic Beyer speed figure was at 2F shorter than this; view as a major-pace presence for part.

Clouds Clearing

Lone-synthetic start was a win over the show finisher who graduated next out in an SA-MSW race with a 70 Beyer; freshened up after rallying well on dirt; will be able to save every inch of ground from this inside draw then make 1 run; wish the worktab stood out more for this but clearly favors this type of surface.

Takem by Surprise

Produced his best Beyer at DMR when loose on the lead but faded at shorter; figures as the one to catch here but faded in his longest-previous distance race 2-back finishing behind the winner who repeated in an SA-starter alw. with a 70 Beyer; the 3-back winner where he set the pace scored right back in a DMR-Grade 1 with a 78 speed figure.

Echo Zulu

His last race on a synthetic surface represents a field-best Beyer just missing vs. the winner who repeated in a DMR-150K stakes with a 76 speed figure; did not show anything on dirt in latest when troubled; obviously a repeat of his August-DMR race would make him hard to handle here.

Battle Jet

The BHP-synthetic surface workout for his 1st start on this type of oval was not very enticing; has been unable to duplicate his speedy-debut win and Beyer; was no match for Heyyoucan 2-back as the show runner from that event posted a 52 speed figure in his next-out SA-25K-claiming win.

Horse Laugh

50 days since an upset-rallying win on dirt with much to prove off his lone-synthetic start a more than 7-length loss to Heyyoucan; has been working on dirt and quickly for this noting his trainer has not won with at least his last 25-synthetic-surface starters.

Heyyoucan

Owns his best Beyer and lone win on synthetic when rallying strongly at shorter; seems the one to beat if can repeat that August effort at DMR; defeated the show runner from last who beat SA-25K claimers next out with a 52 Beyer; the first 3 finishers from his debut here Beyered 74-72-69 in next-out DMR-G2 and MSW wins.

Race 3

Papa Turf

Awfully game winning at SA Sept. 28, a win that looks even better when you note 2 he beat came right back to win; in fact, the horse he beat back into 2nd (Kristo) is one of the more ballyhooed youngsters on the circuit, and Kristo came back to win easily; Beyer was also very smart; worked well since and his speed can help him flee the rail - and he already showed last time he can duel and win.

Shared Belief

It's a classic case of it you can't beat 'em, buy 'em; Hollendorfer didn't think anyone in that field at GG Oct. 19 could beat his Time Jumper, and then this guy just drilled 'Jumper by 7 lengths, so Hollerndorfer went and bought him; brings him south and why not?; horse looked super, got a bit Beyer (84), is bred to love this footing (the Candy Rides love the synthetic) and worked strongly here Tuesday; plenty scary.

Brother Soldier

Blew the start in his debut at BSR Sept. 21 but it didn't matter as he steadily advanced and kept on going to beat maidens; they thougth enough of him to then try a stakes at SA but he was unable to get involved; this spot may be tougher and it's first time synthetic, too; also, Maldonado was up for his first 2 starts but ends up staying aboard Papa Turf instead, to read into that what you will.

Kobe's Back

Everything about his debut was smashing, well, except the Beyer (68); still, this guy cost $480K and we could see why when Sadler debuted him in a stakes here June 15; he completely blew the start and those who made him the 9-5 favorite were likely tearing up their tickets; not so fast - he lagged back and then came with a strong, sweeping Zenyatta-like move to not only win, but win easy; hasn't been seen since and Sadler insists colt was not hurt but that needed time to mature and grow up; well, he's working splendidly, is proven fresh and proven over this track; looks pretty tough, though the Beyer will need a significant push forward if he's to beat a couple of his foes to his left.

Golden Dynamo

First 4 starts weren't much, and they came on turf (2), on synthetic, on dirt and routing; then, they took off the blinkers for start No. 5 at SA Oct. 11, a maiden-claiming route, and it was as if a light went on; went right to the lead and just kept going to win easily; no surprise he routes being by G1 route SW Borrego; trouble is, we're not routing today, the Beyer wasn't much (63), it's first time vs. winners and we're not on dirt either, so the hurdles are many and significant.

Race 4

English Crossing

She has class appeal as one who has been plying her trade against steeper; she also has reason to move forward in what will be her second start since August; returns to a course over which she is a winner, and brings tactical speed to the table; leading contender.

Fantastic Mizz

Suspect she could show the way against these on the move from six and a half furlongs to a mile; note her last win came at this trip, over the local course; draws an improved post over her last two-turn start, and has reason to move forward in her second race since August.

Ricspretentiousgal

She's another making the move from six and a half furlongs to a mile and suspect she might get a tracking trip off Fantastic Mizz, who is drawn to her immediate inside; is returning to the distance and level that produced her last win, and as a four-time winner she's more experienced than some of these; leading contender.

Meltarib

She gives up recency to most of these as she has not started since August; however, she owns the field's best last-race Beyer Figure and was second last out in what has become a key race; the third-place finisher came back in her next start to take the $50K Las Madrinas at BSR, with a Beyer Figure of 79, and the fifth-place finisher, Miss Well Molded, a $32K claimer at SA, with a Beyer of 83; leading contender.

High Jinks (BRZ)

She's a five-time winner facing some less-experienced rivals, and that makes her appealing; she also has been plying her trade against steeper, so she has class appeal in this spot; barn adds blinkers and the move has been a bang-up one for Avila.

Tribal Chatter

She leaves the statebred ranks behind, but gets back on turf and note she won her maiden on the grass; does give up experience to some of these as she is eligible for an N2L spot, but the move to turf is meaningful and looking for her to be prominent on the stretchout to two turns; one of several who can share.

Born Lucky

She steps up in class off a clear win over $25K conditioned claimers at this distance last out and note she has been flattered since the race; the third-place finisher came back in her next start to take a $25K conditioned claimer at SA, with a Beyer of 72, and the ninth-place finisher, Toppers Sunshine, a conditioned allowance at Turf Paradise, with a Beyer of 68; another who can share.

Race 5

Bas

Question of distance and class for the chestnut filly. Two victories, one at 1 1-6 miles against $20,000 maiden claimers and one at a flat mile for a $10,000 tag. Rail post is no help, but she did break her maiden on Cushion Track. Well beaten by Firendesire the last two times they met.

Say Say

Stepped up in class to try turf October 18 with poor results. Back sprinting today and won under identical conditions on Cushion Track June 30. Has an up-and-down pattern for Vann Belvoir, who puts up a strong rider in Martin Garcia. Fast work since ran is a plus.

Funny Gal

Two drills since her last start, but doesn't have a healthy race pattern. Claimed for $40,000 in February, returned from a seven-month hiatus and beat one horse for $25,000 and now shows up for $16,000. Fine trainer and rider, but tread lightly.

Tribal Peace

Dropped after a brief freshening October 20, broke a bit awkwardly and wound up third in a fast race for the class. Lowered again by John Sadler, who tries another rider. Both the Tribal Rule filly's victories came on this track and a recent local drill in :46 4/5 suggests she's ready for a big effort.

Anita Marie

Double drops off a Hollendorfer claim, but the fact Bejarano is aboard is a good indication that whatever she has left, she'll show it today. Most of the California bred's success has come in the Bay Area, but she did win at Del Mar at a higher level July 17.

Toughtoconvince

Tuned up at Fresno, where she finished third in a $40,000 starter allowance. Trainer and rider have won three of 13 together for a $3.77 ROI. Though she's been facing better, she graduated in a $12,500 maiden claimer, so she may actually still be in too high.

Tricksareforkids

Appears hopelessly overmatched. Crushed several times against inferior and lost at Ferndale for a $3,200 tag in August. Her last victory was for $5,000 at Los Alamitos 18 months ago. Good illustration why her trainer is 2-for-53 this year.

Tribal Dress

Good combination of speed and finish, which she used to defeat $25,000 non-winners of two lifetime October 17. That was her first start since May and trainer Steve Miyadi is even better second time off a layoff (25 per cent, $2.32 ROI). Miyadi-Orozco combination is 19 per cent with $2.88 ROI.

Firendesire

Defeated slightly softer one back, then ran into a freakish winner and had to settle for second when triple jumped. Slides down a peg and is usually very competitive with this kind. Steve Knapp and Orlando Mojica have teamed up for three victories, producing a large $6.38 ROI.

She's a Go Girl

Dropping for a fourth straight time since capturing an optional claimer in Phoenix January 25. Ran well both starts on Cushion Track, including a victory against $70,000 maiden claimers in 2012. High percentage rider and trainer are 30 per cent together with a $2.92 ROI.

Race 6

Serene Melody

Lightly raced 3-year-old sports a quality pedigree and she looked good in her turf debut when last seen; winner from latest won next out at SA on 10/24 going 6 1/2f over turf vs. N1X alw. rivals with an 81 Beyer; she has the look of a top contender.

Nickels Wild

She's been a very consistent performer through her first six starts, but it is fair to wonder if she's planning on hanging around the maiden ranks for a while, and she was beaten by today's rival Serene Melody just two starts ago; perhaps it's best to limit her to a spot underneath in the exotics.

Legacy

She stepped it up nicely when placed over turf for the first time back in June, and like the idea of her going sprint-to-route for her second start back from a layoff; that four-furlong workout on October 27 looks sharp and she benefits from the services of the hot-riding Smith.

Lakota Road

She's by a solid turf sire and have to respect the improvement she showed at second asking while making her first start over turf; feel that it's interesting to see her shipped back to Southern California to take a crack at breaking her maiden.

Sealington

Since an encouraging career debut, her two most recent races have only been so-so performances, and she finished behind a couple of today's rivals in her first start over turf in her latest outing; prefer to look toward others.

Sensationalize

She has a strong pedigree for turf and it will be interesting to see how she responds while making her first start away from the Mott barn; third place finisher from latest won next out at AP on 8/10 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 67 Beyer.

Woodys Wharf

She's another in here with a strong pedigree for grass and she has shown the ability to dial up a pretty sharp performance on her best day; if she feels up to one of her better efforts, she can prove to be tough to deal with.

Shrilanka

Like what she showed in her first two career starts during August and September of her 2-year-old season, and she had every right to need her latest race after having to take more than a year off; she has the potential for better behind her at this point in time, and it might be a positive to see Nakatani land here.

Majestic Minister

She's run well in her two attempts routing over turf and it looks like the downhill sprint assignment off of a layoff in her latest outing might have been designed to set her up for this; at the very least, she's a threat to land a spot underneath in the exotics, and it's tough to ignore the presence of Bejarano.

Race 7

Goyan

Offered little against claimers when unveiled down the Santa Anita hill 8 months back and he's been idle since; he's working regularly and ok of late for his first spin on synthetic footing and his G3 SW dam won 4 times on the main track while banking 483K in her career so it wouldn't be a surprise to see this guy run better today, but he'll need to in order to step with some of these.

Street Status

Gets Bejarano to ride him back in his return from 9 months on the shelf after running into a loaded maiden field right out of the box; he's been working regularly over this footing for his return for a barn that boasts nice numbers with its comebackers and each of his 3 sibs to race is a sprint winner including G1 SP, 237K earner Toro Bonito.

Five Palms

Didn't go for much at auction considering his dam was a G2 SW sprinter and 721K earner but this guy's sire does get 13% first out winners from his offspring and he's kin to a 2 time sprint winner as well as a multiple SP maiden; gray is working in typical Baffert fashion and it wouldn't be much of a surprise if he were to come out running.

Intoclassymischief

Showed good speed over wet footing first out and wasn't bad down the hill last month; he'll try synthetic footing for the first time here, though, and there is other speed that figures to give him all he can handle early; prefer to side with others.

Forest Boy

He's the lone member of the field to have reached the Beyer par for the level and he's done it just once in 7 career spins; his last was better and he has a right to move forward with that return from better than 8 months on the shelf behind him; may prove the one to fear most in the lane.

Chief Lion

He's got high speed but has failed to stay in each of his 3 sprint starts; he'll return to synthetic footing for this one and he's been working pretty well of late over the local main track; don't know that his stamina will improve all the much today, but he'll cut back a half panel and will likely have to be caught.

The Cleaners

Took a big step forward second time going down the hill and he did it off more than 11 months on the shelf; gelding has proven to be a quick breaker and should be able to find a spot close to the pacesetters early; pedigree suggests he'll like the main track better than he does the green but note the barn's weak recent numbers on the surface switch.

Silver Love

Boasts some Los Al bullets for his career debut for a barn that hasn't had any recent success with newcomers; outside draw could help keep him out of trouble, but his sire is 0 for 10 with debut runners and the unraced dam's lone foal to race was winless from 2 sprint spins.

Race 8

Disko Dasko (FR)

Nice form in France, came to the U.S. this winter and made an immediate impact, winning her U.S. debut; that earned her 4 straight stakes tries but things didn't go well; Cassidy freshened her, brought her back at SA but things didn't get much better; at least there's no panicky drop, she does have that race under her belt, she's back sprinting and she's reunited with Flores who was up for her March 15 win at SA, so maybe all that can get her back on track...maybe.

Miss Lucky Sevens

Fizzled in a G3 at CD, wsa freshened, came West and fizzled in a stakes at DMR; was freshened again, dropped, shortened to a sprint and voila!; up she jumped with a super effort; looks back on her game and while she's won routing coud be that right now she's most comfortable playing this shorter game; that was a nice bunch she did so well against last time and it's no small matter Bejarano stays.

Zia Zia Zia

Dueled and paid the price in the Unzip Me down the hill at SA but that heat was proven strong as winner Ponchartrain came back to beat elders in the G3 Sen. Ken Maddy down the hill; this girl has speed to be sure, and note a nice win over this course May 16; that being said, there's other speed to worry about; bullet :47 move here Nov. 2 says she's feeling pretty spry.

Scherzinger

Sire Tiz Wonderful gets over 8% first time turf winners and overall turf winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 3 of 5 for $254K, was G2/G3 SW, never tried turf; dam sdf; dam won 2 of 12 for $69K, never tried turf; 2 sibs are Bambolina (2 wins, both on turf, $71K) and Tuesdays With P (3 wins, $83K, never tried turf); came back after 8 months to win 2 straight, on synthetic and dirt so she's overcome some hurdles already; faces tougher and turf for the first time but there may well be more improvement to come from this gal even with the surface switch.

Birdlover (GB)

Some good stakes work this winter/spring and O'Neill thought enough of her to take her East for stakes on Derby Day and Preakness day; OK, so those didn't go so well, but those were tough races; O'Neill has given her plenty of time to regroup, has her back home, down in class and back to sprinting, a game she's handled well; quite playable.

Llandudno

Like the way she's progressing; comes off a smart win, over elders no less, in a turf sprint at SA; handled this course well in the spring and save for her one route try she's shown significant late oomph every time, and all of those were sprints; that being said, she's not some one-dimensional deep closer, as she has enough speed to Talamo can have her in the race like he did Oct. 3.

Zipping My Way

Only 2 turf tries, both sprints, were very nice - a game 3rd (beaten just a neck) and a smart win; that being said, those came vs. lesser foes in NoCal; at least you know she likes this game but she's not in her sandbox any longer and she's facing some stakes-caliber girls this time around.

Blues and Silvers

Fine 3rd down the hill at SA, though that doesn't make those who made her the 9-10 favorited that day feel any better; plenty of speed in her arsenal and she's a pro - hey, you don't win 9 of 15 by accident; and while speed is her main asset she's not a need-the-lead type (note 2 wins at CD this spring from off the pace); likely has to use her speed from this outside post and that could lead to trouble if it means using too much fuel early and/or leading to a duel with Zia Zia Zia; but hey, when you win this often it means you've ovecome things, doesn't it?

Race 9

Semtex

Freezing on the tote and she basically went through the motions when caught 4 wide; although dam didn t run at 2, she could run; she took the Grade 1 Vanity on way to a near $450K career; 2 of 3 siblings won including 4 for 20 near $425K earner Bowman s Causeway; she lost ground in the lane, now has to go a furlong farther; would be careful here.

Lana Caprina

She was a brief threat despite breaking on the sluggish side; 3-time winning dam lost only start at 2, banked over $100K and dam is kin to a pair of runners that banked over $350K; 1 of 2 siblings won; that runner, Tap a Keg, took 3 of 14 as older horse, banked about 26 grand; must be given look on the drop alone.

Pining Play

She comes off a career effort but she really didn't scare the winner; never thrilled to see multiple beats at Pomona and with limited speed, she can be her own worst enemy; she took action first time for a tag but could need another drop to show any semblance of talent.

Lovely Instinct

Youngster walked out of the gate in the lone local start; no kick from the inside in the Pomona effort but it has to be considered a positive the way she flashed speed in last; dam lost only start at 2 but banked over $200K and she has a right to have a decent career as several siblings banked 6 figures, but none won at 2; she seems to be figuring it out.

Cheeky Stone

Grindstone about 11% with juvenile debuters in a 168-runner sample; sire won 3 of 6 including the 1996 Kentucky Derby for a $1.2 million wallet; he won his debut at 2 by 5 at Belmont; dam lost 9 times, this is her first to roll; she has been in training a long time and note there are zero published moves in August; lean toward watching one.

Swiss Sugar

Miss has fired every time, is due to punch it on in; forced to steady two back, Talamo takes reins; homebred may need slightly softer rivals to shine; needs to pick it up.

Browsing

Like fact miss showed the ability to pass horses; her sire won twice at 2, banked over $450K; 2 for 9 dam didn't go at 2, earned over $70K; 2 of 3 siblings won, neither at 2; her chances are enhanced with a hot and heavy pace; stabled locally, the extra furlong should work to her advantage.

Silver N Sassy

She has had her chances and arguably her best race was here when beaten a length and a half; locally stabled, and that may help some; the 9/19 winner repeated in a $32K claimer with a 58 Beyer; must be left in the gimmick equation at least.

Lady of the Nile

It's possible she just disliked the inside; dam out of the money twice; this is her first to race; note she brought 4 more grand at auction than her sire commands at stud; renewed energy in the drill on 10/27; can t be dismissed.

Spirit of Ten

Debut solid considering she took the overland route and the winner was clear; dam was unraced; lone full sister to race lost a dozen times; like fact she kept her legs moving with the drill last Wednesday; slight improvement and she will be a handful.

Swissarella

Miss lost best chance when she bobbled in last and she has much more speed than she flashed in last; backers can point to the fact that full sister Swiss Bliss won twice at 2, earned over $100K; Blanc got a chance to figure her out; look for rider to send hard and try to steal it.

Here Comes Tribal

Realistically placed as a $30K purchase; dam out of the money 6 times; the 3 siblings to race are a combined 0 for 11; the 10/22 spin suggests she is feeling pretty good about herself; note she did flash sub :22 speed in the debut; don't sell too short.