Betfair Hollywood Park
Betfair Hollywood: Closer Looks for December 8, 2013
Race 1
| Crushed Velvet |
| Malibu Moon about 16% with juvenile first-timers in a 386-runner sample; sire graduated in second start at 2 at 5 furlongs on dirt for only win in 2-race career; Jersey inspired dam won only start in debut at 4 by a neck in only start; the half sis that won once lost twice at 2; she's live. |
| Lady Bugatti |
| Freshened, the has the experience to draw from and the place horse in last graduated next out in this league then was a well beaten 2nd in the $100K Sharp Cat; Grade 3 winning 3 for 7 dam earned over $250K, all the wins came at 2; long half bro by Tiznow won once, lost twice at 2; probably a late threat if at all. |
| Artemis |
| Considering the poor start, miss ran well and was well clear in the process; dam was unraced; lone half bro to race lost 7 times; fits nicely here and if the rail doesn't fire, this miss could be very tough. |
| Bev's Summer Song |
| Birdstoneabout 8% with juvenile first-timers in a 119-runner sample; sire took debut at 2, disappointed many when shocking Smarty Jones in the Belmont; dam took juvenile debut, BC Juvenile Fillies, banked over a million; several winners in the family, one took debut at 2; top kin Balladry was G2 placed, banked nearly $175K; could be any kind. |
| Coco Noir |
| Off rail for this, not sure what to make of the drill on the 17th; dam out of the money twice; lone full sister was out of the money in only try; hard to pull the trigger on her. |
| Fashion Plate |
| She took her fair share of action in the beach debut off a work tab that was highlighted by a :47 4/5 drill; she was beaten by a Baffert debuter that had several bullet drills on the tab; dam won 3 times, earned about $70K; several winners in the tree; one cashed at 2; top kin Berberis banked $120K; expect much better effort. |
Race 2
| Shadow Runner |
| He's appealing for the fact that he's been a popular claim among horsemen; makes a couple notable moves as he returns to the main track and cuts back to a sprint distance; looking for him to be making his case in the later stages on account of the distance move; contender in what has the look of a competitive race. |
| Carbonite |
| Welcome to his track; he's a three-time winner over the local strip from five starts and his latest score came last month; steps up in class following the win, and could do some damage here as one who has more natural speed than most of these; a concern is that he could be pressed by runner to his immediate outside, Amazing Hearted; in his favor is the fact that he is a racehorse as a 12-time winner who has run out $400K. |
| Amazing Hearted |
| He gives up experience to these as this will be just the fourth start of his career, but what he lacks there he makes up for in talent as a winner of two of his three races; comes in fresh as this will be his first start since September; he's also well-versed at the trip as his wins have come at either this distance or one similar to it; has more speed than most of these and seems like a candidate to set the pace or track Carbonite; win candidate. |
| Gab Power |
| He's another fresh face as this will be his first start since August; barn changes things up and sends him to the main track following a series of turf races and note he is a winner over the local strip; he also shows a smart series of recent works at BHP; as for the race he exits, the runner-up returned in his next start to win a $62.5K optional claimer at SA with a Beyer Figure of 91, then ran fourth in the Grade 2 Citation; a concern is whether closer will get the right kind of pace setup. |
| First Strike |
| He's returning to the overnight ranks after finishing second in a stakes at a similar distance at Turf Paradise; has experience over the local main track, among his efforts a runner-up finish at this distance last July; like his consistent nature, and his forward works, and he appears to be another contender in solid race. |
| Charlie'sboywins |
| He's a horse-for-course as a four-time winner on the main track at BHP; was fifth here last out when facing steeper rivals, and for the effort earned what ranks as this field's best last-race Beyer Figure; can be closer to the pace than he found himself last time, and perhaps that will be the case here for the class move; can share. |
Race 3
| Papa's Paisley |
| Best-Beyer speed figure was on dirt while latest-1st-ever in-the-money finish was on today's BHP-synthetic surface at longer; cutting back to 6F does not help the confidence level that he can run these all down; will be able to save every inch of ground here then make 1 run. |
| Fulmerized |
| Bet down to under 5-1 odds in his career debut fading to beat 1 runner home over the track; some runners improve dramatically 2nd-time out and he has plenty of room to improve; working like we will see a new runner adding blinkers for the 1st time for his 7%-winning 2nd-start trainer. |
| Rocked Twice |
| Winners-back to-maidens has always been a strong-win angle; exits a field-best Beyer on a wet-TUP dirt track while today is a whole new ball game racing on a synthetic surface for the 1st time; mild workouts in August on BHP-synthetic so has something to prove on this type of oval. |
| Smiley Eagle |
| Sire is 6-for-58 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of an unraced dam who produced 2 winners from 4 other foals to race including 2-for-11 Spartan Envoy (36K) who finished 4th in her debut then won 2nd-time out; is the only entrant without any racing experience but catches a field lacking superstars. |
| Common Confusion |
| Needed last start off the 125-day absence but still managed to improve his Beyer speed figure 11 points; keeps breaking slowly so cutting back a half furlong does not help the confidence level; the first 3 finishers from his debut Beyered 74-72-69 in next-out DMR-MSW and Grade 2 stakes wins. |
| Vegas Street |
| Ran to the 22-1 debut odds when off slowly from the gate then retreating to finish the last of 12; some-good DMR synthetic workouts over the summer; new rider is 3-for-9 at BHP for the barn since 2012; some-wakeup angles here but needs a vast-form 2nd-time out improvement to shock these. |
Race 4
| Boat Trip |
| He's one of three in the field exiting the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint; he had trouble early on and finished 12th; one start prior, he was edged a nose in the BC prep at SA; now returns to BHP, where he is 3-for-4 over the local turf; his record includes a stakes win last June; on a pedigree point, dam was a Group 3 winner of $143K; the concern here is whether he will get the pace he needs to fuel his closing kick. |
| No Silent |
| He has more natural speed than a number of these and that might give him a tactical advantage; he's also a fresh horse as this will be his first start since August; gets back to the grass after hooking top-flight competition last out in the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien at Del Mar; as for the move to BHP, note he is 3-for-4 over the local lawn; worth a long look. |
| Chips All In |
| He's one of three in the field coming out of the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint; he finished ninth, one start after winning the local prep at SA; makes a rare appearance on the BHP course, where last June he was fourth in a stakes won by Boat Trip; has had a chance to work over the local course leading into this race, and drilled a bullet; is a five-time stakes winner, with two of those wins coming in Grade 3s; dam was a two-time stakes winner who was 3-for-4 on turf; could set the pace in race short on speed, or could track No Silent; win candidate. |
| Jonny's Choice |
| He leaves the statebred ranks behind, but he's perfect over the local course; his latest win came at this distance Nov. 23; for that race, he removed blinkers; might be sitting on a peak effort in what will be his third start since July 2012; one who can share. |
| Unbridled's Note |
| He's one of three in the field exiting the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, and he turned in the best finish of the lot; he was a solid fourth, beaten less than two lengths for everything to earn what ranks as this field's best last-race Beyer Figure; the BC was his second start off a layoff, and he could be sitting on a peak performance here in what will be his third out since May; is a two-time stakes winner and half-brother to Spoken Fur, a multiple Grade 1 winner of $675K; probable favorite is logical win candidate. |
Race 5
| New Nature |
| Improved a level in that latest morning trial; her sire won multiple G2s and 767K (offspring of Strong Hope have scored in nearly 10 percent of their debuts); the dam went 6 for 44 earning 78K; winning siblings include 36K earner D'Fighter. |
| Hey Pretty Girl |
| Sired by G1 victor Arch who banked 480K (his progeny have won 43 out of 408 initial races); the dam was without a tally in 4 attempts; this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate; high-percentage trainer at the helm. |
| Yesterday Sings |
| New face was sired by G1 type Circular Quay who banked 1.5 million and whose descendants are 5 for 54 first time out; the mom won 3 of 35 and 99K; this is her lone foal to make it to the races; moderate work tab on view. |
| Exotic Behavior |
| Keeps earning checks but today marks her first attempt for a tag, one of the most powerful angles in the game; definite improvement in her latest five-eighths workouts suggests she is at the ready; obvious true contender. |
| Perched |
| This lass has appeared in several added money events and makes only her second start at the maiden level; should be able to turn back with effectiveness here; should prove a major stretch threat regardless of the early pace. |
| Senza Fina |
| Did not show much firepower over the turf but the latest half-mile workout is encouraging; her sire won a G1 and 818K while the dam went 5 for 22 lifetime earning a total of 129K; sib to 203K earner Hanale Bay; remains a puzzling item. |
| Poppy Cloche |
| Offspring of Hat Trick, a G1 winner who captured 3.12 million, have been successful in 6 of 75 debuts; the dam lost her only race and this is her sole foal to make it to the races; latest a.m. move was fair. |
| First Mil |
| Her sire won 4 of 6 attempts and 148K (descendants of Flatter have won 31 out of 330 initial races); the dam never made it to the starting gate; winning siblings include 119K earner Added Delight; the work tab does not inspire. |
Race 6
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Race 7
| Magic Spot |
| Held on for third money in each of her 2 sprints starts including her most recent spin over the local main track; filly did return to work well here twice and she does appear quick enough to secure a good spot down inside early; if the speed backs up she can prove a factor here. |
| Wired for Fun |
| Fresh filly has had her share of chances, but she's also run as fast as anyone in here; she's worked sharply for her return from the break and has shown the ability to pass runners late; with some speed signed on she's a contender. |
| Ipolita |
| Kentucky bred is by a local sire and she'll tackle Cal breds in her debut; like the way she topped off her work tab with that nice gate move, but this outfit doesn't usually ask them for their best right out of the box; sire gets about 14% first out winners and the dam was a perfect 3 for 3 sprinting prior to dropping multiple sprint winners from each of her 5 foals to race including G2 SP, 260K earner Snapshot, a 9 time sprint winner, and SP, 224K earner Cajun Gent who won 16 times sprinting; has a right to be a runner. |
| Miss Loujean |
| Speedy filly have been prominent early in each of her starts at different venues and over several surfaces; she'll get back in with statebreds in this spot and maybe she gained a little conditioning on the local lawn a couple of weeks back; should again be rolling from the bell. |
| More Complexity |
| Sire is 1 for 10 with his debut runners and the dam was a 2 time sprint winner whose lone foal to race won 4 sprints; works aren't much and the low profile outfit hasn't had any recent luck with its newcomers. |
| An Unusual Group |
| Sire gets 9% first out winners from his offspring and the SW dam banked 245K and won 3 sprints; she's kin to 2 limited winners who were a combined 0 for 4 sprinting on the main track; barn hits at a moderate clip with its newcomers but they are profitable with this type so lack of tote action shouldn't sway a positive view. |
| Shakeitupbetty |
| Sire hits with 10% of his newcomers and this gal is the first foal to race out of a SW dam who won 4 sprints and banked 139K; recent drills are solid for the unveiling, but this outfit hasn't had much recent luck right out of the box. |
| Mia Luccia |
| Speedster starts from the outside slot for her second start back from the 4 month break; she's been working well over the footing and should be better with her last behind her, but the barn hasn't had much luck off the angle and she could find herself in a wide spot today. |
Race 8
| Bright Town |
| Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and dam won 3 of 15 starts for 65k, including 0-for-4 over turf; third-place finisher from latest won next out here on 11/16 going 7f vs. 20-18k MCL's with a 49 Beyer; she's meeting winners for the first time after beating 20k MCL's, but she certainly put together a fine performance against those 13 rivals. |
| This Means War |
| The long layoff is a concern, but this stakes placed filly is by a solid turf sire and she's out of a multiple stakes winning dam who won 6 of 24 starts for 366k, including 4 of 19 turf starts for 321k; she was a sharp winner in her turf debut when last seen and this really isn't a bad spot for her return to action. |
| Miss Charming |
| Like the early speed she brings with her and she's run well in back-to-back starts over turf prior to this; she's out of a G3 winning dam who won 5 of 19 starts for 224k, including 2 of 8 turf starts for 130k, and this miss is a 1/2 to multiple G1 winner Tout Charmant (9-29, $1.7 million, including 7 of 20 turf starts for $1.6 million) and G3 winner Forest Grove (5-16, 281k, including 2 of 6 turf starts for 96k). |
| J Louie |
| Bring the Heat has been a fine influence as a turf sire and this filly ran well in her only start over turf prior to this; not willing to count her out of it as she gets ready to make her first start without blinkers and only her second start over turf. |
| Possible (GB) |
| She has a fine pedigree for turf and like the idea of her going synthetic-to-turf for the third start of her current form cycle; she looks like she might get overlooked in the wagering and her best race can get her into the mix against these. |
| Madre Luna |
| She's another in here who doesn't have any shortage in the turf pedigree department and this consistent performing mare can have a say in the outcome if she feels up to one of her better performances; note that she's run well the last two time she's been seen sprinting over this turf course. |
| Hlao Roo |
| New York shipper seems to have landed in a pretty difficult spot for her West Coast racing debut and her total lack of early speed is eligible to leave her with a lot of ground to cover when she hits the top of the stretch; prefer to give others to nod in this one. |
| Backwoods Belle |
| This filly brings a good deal of early speed with her and note that she finished right behind today's rival J Louie the last time that she was seen racing over turf; third place finisher from latest returned to win next out at TuP on 11/3 going 4 1/2f vs. 3k claimers with a 69 Beyer. |
Race 9
| Little Jerry |
| Soph has the two races to draw from now and Baltas knows what to do with a good horse; he has spotted them just fine this year with limited starters; 4 exited the 9/29 race to win next out; the win was local but runner is out to prove that 25-1 shocker was no fluke; don't ignore. |
| Northern Iowa |
| What happened to the speed this guy once showed?; the 9/27 winner repeated in an N2X fray; note runner did improve in the Beyer department in the second off the layoff run 8/31; can't be counted out. |
| Imperial Fortune |
| Decent try on the cut back and he was inching toward the winner; that sprint could have sharpened his speed; like the spacing of the drills since the last effort and runner can give you a :44 and change half if in the mood; major player. |
| Planet Sunshine |
| He holds the win advantage on this group and that may play a part at crunch time; this rider up for the last win, he was nearly 10 clear two back and is back on the preferred surface; surprise package. |
| Bridge of Gold |
| Connections thought enough of this guy to try the stakes; it s been since 2011 since this guy ran a big race; hustling bug takes the reins for this; there is an over $350K earner in the tree; backers have to hope the drop shakes him up. |
| Tortola |
| Don't be too harsh about last as it s never simple to beat winners right back; note that Del Mar race came back live and place horse 10/12 took a MSW next out with an 80 Beyer; could see him sitting a nice stalk and pounce trip; interesting. |
| Appealing Tale |
| Over 3 clear and the show horse was well in front of nearest foe too; runner has natural speed but he proved in his win that he can sit just off the pace and perform; barn continues to spot them solidly; the one to beat. |
| Raised a Secret |
| Sired proved stamina winning the Fountain of Youth, dam s lone win was a sprint, and the lone half bro was out of the money in only try; pushed wide last time, look for rider to be aggressive from the sound of the bell here. |
| Monument |
| Took limited action for a Sadler last time; show horse in last cashed next out in an N1X with a 99 Beyer; if you figure he was just dead short in last, then you have something to work with here; he also caught the fastest pace of his career in last; expect much better effort. |
Race 10
| Torre Italiana |
| Seems to be entered at will. One race she's in for $5,000, the next in a $40,000 starter allowance. Whatever the plan, the 5-year-old is only 2-for-42 and hasn't won in 14 starts on this track. |
| Pawn Shop |
| In the money three straight before a slow start ended the streak November 22. Not big on winning, but has finished in the money 11 of 15. Claimed for $8,000 last out and returns for the same tag. New trainer has a flat-bet profit moving from route to sprint and also does well when he uses Talamo (23 per cent, $2.19 ROI). |
| Unkept Rendez Vous (FR) |
| Eons since last won, but did manage a couple of seconds this year. Seems to like the Del Mar Polytrack, however she's never run particularly well on Cushion Track. Recent half-mile drill in :48 3/5 is a plus but her main hope is that anything can happen in these bottom-of-the-barrel claimers. |
| English Puddin |
| Late on the scene for second in an $8,000 route November 22 and red-tagged by Vann Belvoir, who has a solid record (25 per cent, $2.13 ROI) first off a claim. One of the few in this race with a victory over Cushion Track, a $20,000 maiden claimer a year ago. Never been this distance, but her style suggests she'll like it. |
| Negra Tomasa |
| Trailed in last two at big odds. Only 2-for-32 lifetime, though one of her victories was on this track. Hasn't shown a thing all year racing at this level and there doesn't appear to be any reason she'll turn it around here. |
| Warrens China Doll |
| Didn't beat a soul in her last two, however her previous three were good. Hall of Fame trainer takes the 10-pound apprentice allowance with Drayden VanDyke, hoping the feather impost will snap her back to life. |
| Long Legged Lovely |
| Benchmark mare likes to follow the pack. She's been third in eight of her 24 starts with only two victories. Key rider change to Edwin Maldonado, who has formed a profitable team with Steve Knapp (34 per cent, $7.56 ROI). |
| Ghost N Your Heart |
| Four of the E Dubai mare's five victories have come on Cushion Track. She enters this race off a game two turn win at Santa Anita and is one-for-one at this tricky distance. Aguirre lost the chestnut for $12,500 August 31 and claimed her back for $10,000 forty days later. Dangerous right back. |
| Psalm Sixteen |
| Dominated at this level October 31, but has shown little in three subsequent starts. Broke her maiden at this distance May 16 and her speed should play well in this relatively paceless field. Weight off with an apprentice who rode her well in the past. |
| Eltoninadress |
| Easy victory October 24 at Santa Anita, defeating several of today's foes. One level drop is of little concern. Sutherland-Kruse has won two of eight for this outfit with a giant $9.62 ROI. Should be tracking whatever speed develops from her cozy outside slot. One of the ones in here. |