Betfair Hollywood: Closer Looks for December 6, 2013

Race 1

Change of Plan

Defeated older $12,500 non-winners of two lifetime November 3 under Joel Rosario, who was at Santa Anita that weekend to ride in the Breeders' Cup. Rosario happens to be at Betfair Hollywood Park for several graded races, so trainer Peter Miller takes advantage. The two are 6-for-21 together with a $2.26 ROI over the last two years.

Rocky Barboa

Displayed speed for a half mile before fading to last in a $25,000 non-winners of two lifetime November 11. The move followed another steep drop from $40,000 starter allowance. Runners with such a downward spiral pattern rarely turn it around, though the Rocky Bar gelding has run well on Cushion Track before.

Mauzzie

Nearly nine lengths behind Change of Plans November 3, retreated quickly when raised to a $40,000 starter allowance November 21 and now drops down to open $10,000 company. Only victory was in a half-mile dash on the Barretts bullring. Early speed could influence the race, but the Bedford Falls gelding probably won't get very far.

Zippingaroundtown

Tracked the pace before weakening to fourth in a similar race November 21. In his previous start, the City Zip gelding led for a half mile before settling for third against $8,000 older runners. Other pace in the race could soften him up, but speed is always dangerous. Trainer-rider have combined to win 3-of-10 with a $5.08 ROI.

Bob Consultation

Big move into the lane October 24, but lost his punch and was outfinished. Captured his previous start in a $12,500 non winners of two lifetime, making him a solid fit at this level. Several speed horses flatter his style and make this stretch runner an enticing challenger.

Billy Win

Wasn't able to show his usual speed last time when he broke last. His weapon is zip and he's drawn outside his main pace rivals today. Horse-for-course on Cushion Track, winning two of four on the synthetic. May have needed his last and could improve.

Hazardous

Back from Turf Paradise, where he finished second twice in three starts. Winless in 2013, but has been runnerup four times. Right style for the race, as the Candy Ride gelding could sit in the pocket, right behind dueling leaders. Nice weight break with apprentice Nicolas, who rode the sophomore well in the past. By Mike Superstein

Race 2

Warren's Assassin

Has gone downhill since defeating $30,000 maiden claimers at Santa Anita 20 months ago. Outrun twice at Del Mar, took some time off, and now returns at a new career low. Bullet work November 19 is encouraging. Welcome back to Alonzo Quinonez, who suffered a hairline fracture of his tailbone in a spill September 22 at Barretts.

Tribal Rain

Stopped abruptly in a route two weeks ago and was claimed by Jorge Periban for $8,000. The step up to $12,500 non-winners of two lifetime isn't that drastic a raise and she certainly sprinted well enough earlier in his career. Continues to train well. Some upset potential.

Raven Wild

Reunited with Joel Rosario, who was aboard for the mare's maiden victory on Cushion Track all the way back in May, 2011. Dropped into a restricted claimer last February but finished down the track and has been absent since. Absolutely no speed and slow recent drills make her difficult to back, despite the softer company.

Holiday N Newport

Pressed the pace and wound up a clear third when sent two turns November 15. More comfortable sprinting and trainer Mike Pender has a flat-bet profit ($2.16 ROI) moving from route to sprint. Ran well on Cushion Track during the Spring/Summer meeting, finishing second in her debut against $50k maiden claimers.

Citizen Jane

Broke her maiden at 11-1 for this apprentice on Cushion Track July 13. Orozco and Meza have been a profitable team, posting a $4.84 ROI in 17 races together. Did OK vs better on the bullring, but dropped to this level November 16 and ran one of the worst races in her career.

Magic Maya

Victory over $20,000 maiden claimers October 18 makes her the most recent winner in the field. Finishing second that day was Magic Number, who won her next two starts. Realistically placed and should be tracking a moderate pace.

Clearly Confused

Lone victory was at Laurel Park in March, but has shown she can act around these parts. Took the overland route against similar November 16, challenged for the lead midstretch and went on to be a clear second. Trainer-rider have compiled a $2.57 ROI this year. Trip horse looks dangerous. By Mike Superstein

Race 3

Our New Flash

Has not raced past 6F yet; sprint sire raced just once at 1 Mile or longer and it was a 6th-place finish on turf; is out of an unraced dam; adds Lasix and blinkers after breaking slowly from the gate; lots of upside for an improved effort but has plenty of room to move forward off the lackluster unveiling at nearly 100-1 odds.

Coranto

Wide trip in last but has the tendency to break slowly from the gate; added distance can help the cause however he finished evenly November, 2012, the last time stretched out to 8.5F; owns both exacta finishes on synthetic surfaces the longest at 7F; saves ground then makes 1 late run trying to sneak into the exotics.

Full's Kris S.

Debut is a career-best Beyer while latest speed figure is a career low number; flashed speed 2 back when defeated by the show runner who posted a 67 speed figure in his DMR-20K-maiden-claiming next-out win; clearly wanted no parts of dirt for latest with 54 days to regroup making just his 3rd start since May, 2012; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Tiz Futurity

Could not sustain his rally in latest vs. Chocolatier but it still ends up being a career-best Beyer; obviously 8,5F on synthetic is his best game just missing to Chocolatier in August at Del Mar in this spot; the 2-back runner-up graduated next out in a BHP-MSW event with a 77.

Black Magic Man

Has not raced past 5.5F yet; sire was a G1-SW at 9F on turf; is out of an unraced dam; kin to Solo Flash won 3 times in dirt routes but went 0-for-6 in synthetic-surfaces starts at 1 Mile or longer; trainer is 0-for the last-15 with long-layoff runners so will be taking a wait and see approach.

Gold Tie Please

2nd-time Long is often an improvement angle while 1st time on synthetic is a question mark; 34 days idle since a 21-point Beyer increase 2nd-time out racing 1st-time Lasix; the added distance figures to help him out while the SA-5F dirt drill was right on the money; contender.

Destino

Big stretchout attempt for his retrurn to a synthetic surface; in June, 2012, finished a distant 8th at 8.5F on BHP synthetic in this same 20K-maiden-claiming spot which marks his only career race at today's distance; the winner from last repeated in a BHP-16K claimer with an 82 Beyer.

Warren's Cliff S.

Lacked stamina in deep stretch vs. Tenkiller Kid in last so adding 1.5F for this would not help the cause; he did fire a career-best Beyer at today's distance over the track in June and his last exacta finish was also going this far on synthetic; have mixed feelings on this pace presence.

Tenkiller Kid

Career-best Beyer was without blinkers; they were removed for last-good effort; he fired strongly when sent this far in June while in latest prep over today's oval was screaming out for more distance and gets it here; his field-best Beyer was posted at 7F on dirt; forgive the 3-back turf-debut defeat when handled by the runner-up finisher who posted an 80 speed figure in his next-out BHP-MSW win; the pick.

Crusher

Just 2 races during career so still has upside but distance is the concern after tiring at shorter in his 1st race over today's BHP oval which saw the winner and runner-up Beyer 94-87 in next-out 50K-claiming and maiden-claiming wins; view as a pace presence pressing from the outside.

Chocolatier

Saved best Beyer for last when returning to BHP synthetic at today's distance with a near-miss finish; broke widest in from the gate in last and is drawn way out here again; main concern is his bet-hard defeats as 3-back was defeated by Warren's Cliff S when favored; late runner needs a pace meltdown to score; seems capable of graduating if can just repeat last as the one to beat today; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 78 in his next-out BHP-20K-maiden-claiming win. By Art Gropper

Race 4

Willyconker (IRE)

481K earner is obviously a classy veteran, and coming out of three straight stakes, he ought to find this easier 40K claiming opposition to his liking; with the exception of that bomb on the Saratoga dirt in July, he has run Beyers of 84 or higher since May; those numbers match up well here; just one work since his last race Oct. 27; inclined to try to beat him.

Stoney Fleece

This horse shows up almost every time he is placed in a suitable claiming race; changes barns off the claim and shows a consistent, but slow, worktab since that Oct. 27 race; first or second in 8 of 17 on turf, and Bejarano climbs aboard; narrow edge.

Polytechnicien

Was a G3 winner in France and came to the U.S. with nice qualifications but he just hasn't produced here - hence his placement in this claiming race; perhaps the start for the tag will wake him up; the back class is the primary appeal to this one.

Lumberyard Jack

Competitive in recent starts but winless in all seven of his races this year since ending 2012 on a winning note in October of last year; is 3-0-0-0 on the Hollywood turf - a disappointing record considering he is 13-3-1-2 on other courses.

Extensive

Was good enough to run second in an allowance two back and third in the Sunset Hanidcap before that; both those races were marathons; his shorter races haven't been as good; class drop is appealing; surprising Garcia is just 1 for 16 riding for Cerin in 2012-2013.

Dirty Swagg

Is a 3-year-old facing older rivals and with a 9-0-0-1 record this year, he is a tough one to endorse; low percentage connections; was stakes placed in the Real Quiet as a juvenile here, but that was many races ago and on the Cushion Track, not the grass; pass.

Hawk's Eyes (BRZ)

Could not quicken with the top finishers in the Lure and ended up sixth of 10; ran a little better in his preceding race when second in an optional claimer at this distance of 1 1/8 miles; he needs to run at least that well to contend; overall U.S. form leaves something to be desired. By Byron King

Race 5

Spirit of Ten

Offered a nice late kick to get second money first out at Santa Anita but her local spin last month wasn't very good; though she worked well earlier in the week she doesn't have early lick and the inside draw doesn't figure to help her get back on track while cutting back and switching to a triple bug.

Devil's Backbone

Runner up in her last 2 at the trip upstate makes her local debut; she does return quickly and her speed should be on display from this inside slot; her numbers do play out well in here but she may have to fend some of these off from the bell.

Royal Agenda

Sire is winless from 23 debut runners and both of the limited sprint winning dam's foals to race were multiple sprint winners; some of the works are solid, but this outfit has been on a pretty poor run with newcomers of late.

Pretty Storm

Drops to her lowest level after getting beaten as the chalk with shades added in her first crack for a tag; filly's early foot should again have her close early and she gets a big rider switch to Rosario; she's been going the wrong way, but has tasted victory and maybe she's able to clear these second time in blinkers; contender.

Miss Fast Eddie

She was in over her head with winners last time, but the return to the maiden ranks will help her as she makes her first start over synthetic footing on the turn back today; her local drill last month suggests she likes the new surface and she'll get pace to run at.

Cacica Dulima

She's offered for a tag for the first time after fading at nearly 100-1 on the board when in with MSWs in her first local try; all 3 of her sibs are winners and maybe she finds this bunch softer, but she'll have to improve to threaten.

Cheeky Stone

She was used in pace first out at the level and didn't have much saved for the drive; she certainly has a right to be better with the initial experience behind her but the presence of other speed drawn inside her doesn't figure to make this task any easier for her.

Queen Mad

Newcomer boasts slow drills for a barn that's been on a poor run with its debut runners; sire gets 13% winners from his first out runners and this gal is the first foal to race out of a 2 time sprint winning dam who did win as a juvenile.

Warrens Lil Margie

Hasn't been close in any of her 3 starts and now she'll try synthetic footing for the first time since the Del Mar debut run this summer; she's been working better on dirt today and maybe that's a sign she's ready to improve, but off what she's done thus far we can only watch her in here.

Here Comes Tribal

Hood comes off for another shot at the level after tiring from her early pace efforts in her local debut; filly hasn't been a threat late in any of her starts and there's not a lot to suggest she'll go much better in this one; longshot.

Swiss Sugar

She's got early foot and usually offers it, but her past couple of starts were really bad; maybe trouble excuses each of those poor ones and she does own some decent back efforts, but the outside slot and presence of other lick won't make it easy for her to get back on track in this spot.

Swissarella

Statebred blew a clear midstretch lead as the chalk when dropped in for a tag in her local return, but she did easily best the rest; filly draws outside again in this one and that should help her work out a tracking trip in a field that does contain some lick; giving her the nod to get there first today. By Steve Grabowski

Race 6

Teacher Teacher She's a full sister to Tilde, a three-time stakes winner of $345K; exits a quick race in which she finished fourth; the start was her first in two months and she would seem to have reason to move forward for the out; can be closer to the pace than some of these, and could get a useful stalking trip; leading contender. Ryderroo Barn changes things up and sends this one back to the main track, as well as back to a sprint distance; did her best work around one turn, to the move would seem to do her well at this time; a concern is whether she'll get the kind of pace she needs to fuel her run. Swiss Heart She appears to be a top contender; she's been in quick races, and she's moved forward with each of her starts; she also owns the field's best last main-track race Beyer Figure; further adding to her appeal is the fact that she can be closer to the pace than a number of her rivals; win candidate. Sagebrush Queen She exits same race as Ryderroo and as such will be moving back to the main track and back to one turn; has done her best work to date under such conditions, when second in a maiden allowance sprint Oct. 4; dam was a multiple stakes-placed winner of $42K; the concern is whether this one will get pace to fuel her run, but like the sharp works leading up to this start; runner of interest. Girl On the Lam She gives up recency to all of these as she has not raced since March; indicated her readiness to get back in action the other morning, when she worked six furlongs in a bullet 1:12.60; tough to expect one to be on top of their game after such a long break, but has a nice foundation of works for the task; one to preview in the paddock. Hanserella She returned from a two month break last out and fired a big race at SA; the start came on turf and now she moves back to the main track and note in the past she has picked up checks over the local strip; has an age edge on most of these, has more speed than most of these, and has reason to move forward in her second start back; on a pedigree point, dam was a multiple stakes winner of $317K and she has a produced a 10-time winner in Overtime Victory ($115K); choice. Dulcemia She steps back up into the maiden allowance ranks, but will be getting a shot with statebreds for the first time in a while; did not get the break from an inside post last time, but can be closer to the pace than some of these in what might prove to be a tactical advantage; still needs to step up her game to knock off the leading contenders in this spot; watching and learning.By Mary Rampellini

Race 7

El Commodore

Tough race; big wire-to-wire win at DMR Aug. 1 was a beaut as he beat some nice horses adn was also claimed for $100K; that earned him a shot at the G2 DMR Mile and he was a good 4th behind then top-SoCal miler Obviously; then tried dirt to no avail at BSR before setting a fast pace and running 3rd in a strong Lure renewal at SA Oct. 27; speed on the rail, never a bad thing, though there is at least one other in here (Batti Man) who could give him problems early.

Code of Conduct

Did some good work in the Midwest, enough so that when he shipped to SoCal they threw him right into the deep end, trying the G2 John Henry at SA Sept. 29; OK, so that was biting off too much and hey, not much was expected anyway (sent off at 53-1); freshened since with a drop, though it's not like he found himself a bunch of patsies here; and even his best work from a Beyer standpoint (top fig is 91) may leave him on the outside looking in.

Rauschenberg

You sure know he likes here; after all, his 4 wins ALL came over THIS turf course; that being said, all 4 also came sprinting - we're routing today; at least has shown he can handle this trip, as while he's winless in 5 tries at this distance he's still done some decent work (1 2nd, 3 3rds); still, is his love for this place enough to overcome the fact this may not be his best game, while he faces some real tough customers to boot?

Batti Man (ARG)

He and the rail horse figure to ensure a brisk pace; speed is this guy's best weapon and its use likely his best chance to win this, so don't assume they're all of a sudden going to take back; a touch of class here, too, and he's shown he can carry his speed; still, he is 0 for 4 on turf (just 1 2nd) so while he's quick and has some class this may not be his preferred game and it's not like he comes here in peak form, either.

Empty Headed

It's a step up in class to be sure but he's the 1 guy in here you can point to and say, 'He's improving'; won 3 of his last 4 and the lone loss was to a tough nut at SA Oct. 27; came back to win here Nov. 17 and posted a bullet :47.60 work Nov. 28 to indicate he holds his edge; likely needs to take another step forward to be a player here but he IS improving so such improvement is by no means out of reach.

Dubai You X Y Z

Hasn't won since April 2012, yes, but save for his try in the G1 Shoemaker Mile that year he's been excellent in all other starts; they've had trouble keeping him on the track and he returns from yet another long layoff (7 months); however, he's proven fresh, proven against some very tough cookies and proven on this course and his tactical speed should have him lined up for a great trip just behind El Commodore and Batti Man.

Te Rapa

Really come into his own the 2nd half of this year; things weren't really going well at all but after a layoff he ran 2nd for $28K here June 22 and has been super since, winning 3 of his last 5; that includes a smart win over this course last time (Nov. 9) when beating some nice runners; has some versatility and obviously rider Stra has the knack with this guy; after all, this runner's turnaround coincides with when Stra took over the steering duties. By Michael Hammersly

Race 8

Fleet Fox

Basically ran around the oval at Pomona; dam out of the money thrice; this is her first to race; more experienced pilot takes the reins; drills are steady since bow but hardly eye-catching; wonder how high expectations can be for this $2K purchase?

Moving Seas

Puype 2 for 11 the last 5 years with juveniles doing the MSW to maiden claining tango and 2 others ran third; miss may have disliked the Anita rail and must be given legit look on the drop alone; she trained forwardly last month with this race in mind; 4 for 11 dam out of the money in only try at 2, banked nearly $30K; this is her first to race; respect.

Tribal Yodeler

Brief factor but at least she got a feel of the track; dam was 0 for 12; this is her first to race; homebred fit enough to drill a couple of times since the opener; would lean toward waiting until she shows some ability.

Rushomatic

Considering the winner was clear in last, the race was not all that bad; stakes placed 1 for 13 dam won at 2, earned almost $130K; 2 of 3 siblings won; both race at 2 to no avail; one banked about 33 grand; she seems to be figuring it out.

My Secret Paradise

Conlon 1 for 7 the last 5 years with debuting juvenile maiden claimers and 2 ran third, one was 20-1; Taste of Paradise 0 for 46 with debuting juveniles; sire lost only start at 2, took a G1, banked over a million; 7 for 26 dam earned $120K, lost only try at 2; lone half bro to race Secret Jackpot took 9 of 48, earned over $100K, didn't go at 2; drills ideally spaced.

Goodhumorgirl

In career cheap spot as Bejarano enticed; at least fans can say a couple of siblings did win at 2; note 10/10 show horse graduated next out; this miss seems to set to run huge.

Chilada

O'Neill 9 for 49 or 18% the last 5 years with juvenile going MSW to maiden claiming and 6 ran second; she has the two races to draw from now and has flashed speed; dam was unraced; lone full bro to race was out of the money in only out; don't ignore.

Katy's Cookin

Plenty of lick so far, but very little stick; she has lost ground in the lane in every single start; there is no juvenile success in the family but kin Tempest Storm won 10 times and banked over $250K; cagey barn due to get rolling.

Red Barris

Drilled decently since the local debut and the shorter trip could be just what the good doctor ordered; dam lost only start; all 3 siblings won; 2 won at 2 including SP 2 for 6 racer and over $100K earner Kinz Funky Monkey; rates long look in all the slots.

Lovely Instinct

Backers can point to the fact she was over 6 lengths clear in last; 2 siblings race at 2 but failed to win as juveniles but kin Ballado s Thunder earned nearly $300K; another slice?

Very Thankful

Carava 2 for 5 the last 5 years with debuting juvenile maiden claimers with a median payoff of nearly $40; McCann s Mojave 5 for 24 with debuting juveniles; sire took debut at 2, won several stakes including a Grade 2, banked over $1.5 million; 2 for 18 dam earned nearly $45K, was 2nd in best result at 2; this is her first to race; she sure looks fit enough.

Majestic Lady

O'Callaghan 2 for 3 the last 5 years with juveniles going MSW to maiden claming; goes inside to outside and seems realistically placed as a $30K purchase; dam took one route as older horse; the 4 siblings to race are a combined 0 for 17; may wake up today.

Emerald Executive

Hofmans 3 for 12 the last 5 years with debuting juvenile maiden claimers with a median payoff of nearly 9-2; Council Member 0 for 18 with debuting juveniles; sire took juvenile debut on turf in England, won stakes, banked nearly $350K; stakes winning 5 for 21 dam banked nearly $200K, won twice at 2; several multiple race winners in the tree; 2 cashed at 2; top earner Incredible Play took 10 of 38, garnered over $160K; would have liked to have seen some local drills. By Brian Mulligan