Betfair Hollywood: Closer Looks for December 5, 2013

Race 1

Susans Express

Popped from the rail first out at Del Mar, so the inside shouldn't be a problem Tried two turns at this level October 31, finished second and now returns to sprinting. Jorge Periban only 2-for-16 shortening up with a flat-bet loss. Periban starts a lot of horses, but has only used Joe Talamo twice in two years, winning one.

Tom Kha

Tiring third at this condition one back, then did even worse when lowered to $25,000 November 22 following a nine-week break. Paul Aguirre now raises the Northern Afleet filly back to a starter allowance, and it's interesting to note that the trainer wins at 23 per cent second time off a layoff. Saul Arias is 3-for-10 for this barn with a $5.08 ROI.

Wedding Note

Slow into stride but moved into position on the turn and blasted home to win by nearly six lengths in her debut at 13-1. Offspring of Grey Memo are not known for early victories, so the prospect of improvement is good. Apprentice Irving Orozco, off to a slow start this meeting (2-for-32), returns for Matt Chew.

Frandontjudge

Shut off early, then wide the rest of the way in a better-than-looked third November 22. Taken for $25,000 by John Sadler, who is 24 per cent first off a claim with a $2.41 ROI. The trainer takes advantage of Joel Rosario sticking around to ride Rosalind in Saturday's Grade I Starlet. Sadler was instrumental in getting Rosario to shift his tack from the Bay Area to Los Angeles.

Ascription

Lone victory was a slow $32,000 maiden claiming route on the Barretts bullring. Was a closing forth at this level in his first crack at winners October 6, but was a dull fifth in his next two, both open claimers. Does move from the rail to the outside, but has little speed in a race without much pace.

Race 2

Strollin Home

Turns back after tiring from an inside stalking spot when stretched out in her first local route try; filly gets in light with a triple bug named and there's not a lot of lick signed on so maybe she's able to work out a decent trip down inside; SP dam was a 3 time sprint winner who also scored going long prior to dropping a couple of sprint winners including G2 SP, SW and 157K earner Made to Love Her; this may still be a little longer than she really wants to go.

A P Pepper

Adds the hood for the stretchout after passing runners late again in her first crack on synthetic footing; filly is bred to handle the added trip as the dam and her other foal to race both won going long and maybe the new equipment helps get her in the game a little earlier; one to fear late in this weak gathering.

Raja's Rose

Held third money going long in her local return and now she'll turn back to what looks to be a more suitable trip; barn's had a rough stand and this gal has had plenty of chances, but maybe this gal has a move forward in her second time in shades and she couldn't have caught a much softer bunch.

Moonlight Stroll

Barn hits at a nice recent clip with its newcomers but this gal's steady recent drills are far from quick; sire does get about 20% winners from his first out runners and the unraced dam dropped a 2 time turf winner from 3 foals to race.

Snort'n Matilda

She was used in pace when sent to post at 108-1 in her initial local route try and had little left for the drive; maybe the turn back benefits her, but her 2 Fairplex sprints were pretty weak; can see her lasting a bit longer here, but still don't think she'll prove a serious money spot threat for a barn that's winless on the year.

Papa's Flashy Girl

Statebred didn't have much to offer late after making a wide run against restricted foes on the Santa Anita main track; last out; freshened a bit, she's returned to work slowly but the barn excels with turn backs and they are having a nice stand thus far.

She's Flush

Just missed getting up while rallying well into the track sprinting here last out; filly just got caught after opening a big lead in her lone route spin and Santa Anita 3 back and maybe the stretchout in this one plays to her favor; she's had her chances and the barn has been kept out of the winner's circle here, but she's a contender in this spot.

Race 3

Lakota Road

Have to respect what she's done in her two most recent races after being claimed by these connections out of her career debut for 20k, and she finished right behind a couple of today's key rivals in her latest outing; there is a chance that the early pace in here will heat up a little bit, and that would be just fine with this late running miss.

Nickels Wild

She sports some of the stronger and more consistent overall form in here and she beat a few of today's rivals in her latest outing; like the idea of her sitting a comfortable trip after breaking from an inside post and going to look for her to be a tough one to keep out of the mix.

Tiz a Funtime

She's yet to finish better than seventh or within 15 lengths of the winner in her first three starts and she's obviously going to need to find a way to produce a much improved performance in order to contend.

One Time Only

It remains to be seen if she can be as effective routing as she's shown herself to be sprinting but she brings a high degree of early speed with her and feel that she commands some respect in this spot based on what she's shown in her first two turf attempts.

Serene Melody

This filly appears to be on the improve and she's out of a multiple G1 winning dam who won 18 of 38 starts for $3.2 million, and she didn't make a start over turf; this filly is a 1/2 to multiple stakes winner Serena's Tune (7-14, 337k, including 4 of 8 turf starts for 204k), G1 winner overseas Sophisticat (3-12, 443k) and G3 winner Schramsberg (6-24, 394k, including 3 of 10 turf starts for 247k); must consider.

Majestic Minister

Majestic Warrior has been a poor influence as a turf sire and this filly will need to step it up over what she's shown in her four turf attempts in order to have a chance at the top spot; note that she's been beaten by a few of today's rivals in recent starts.

Intoxicating Move

She's another late running type to consider in here but it does appear that she's going to need to find a way to dial up a career best performance in order to get the job done; prefer to give the nod to others in this one.

Race 4

Tizouttasight

Broke his maiden here July 4 but that's part of a feast-or-famine pattern; after a nice win at BSR he gave way badly (eased) in a stakes at FNO Oct. 5; freshened since, down in class and at least you know he likes it here and has been working steadily the past month or so; but which guy do we get today, hmmmm?

Echo Zulu

Toss that 6th in a stakes at BSR Sept. 15 (when coming back in just 4 days) and you're left wit nothing but good outings; that includes 2 wins on synthetic, including a nice win here Nov. 10; horse he beat back into 3rd (Horse Laugh) came right back to win here Sunday, too; Miller pushing all the right buttons this meet (7 for first 24, 29%).

Hobbits Hero

Came out firing to gamely win his debut at SA Oct. 4; that was enough to earn him a stakes shot at GG Nov. 9 and after dueling early he weakened to finish 5th; still, considering it was just his 2nd start, his 1st vs. winners, came in a stakes, was his 1st on synthetic AND he had to ship for the privilege of all that, well, that wasn't too shabby at all; back to SoCal with a work since and reunited with Gutierrez who was up for his debut win.

Easy Topper

Solid 2nd at GG Sept. 8 (horse he chased, Life Is a Joy, came right back to win) earned him 7-10 favoritism there Oct. 18; alas, after chasing the pace that day at GG he faded to 5th; freshened, drops in for a tag and comes south; only other time he shipped south, to DMR, he won smartly.

Tosheen

Gives Miller 2 big looks at this (also sends out Echo Zulu); gelding has won 2 of last 3, including a win for $25K at SA Oct. 18, so the move up in value encourages; yes, those last 3 good races came on dirt and his only synthetic try wasn't much, but his only synthetic try was also his debut and he had a troubled start so you can be forgiving for that; been working along nicely the past month or so and his speed on the outside allows Rosario to see what's happening to his inside and adjust from there.

Race 5

Born Lucky

Mike Machowsky trainee is reunited with Bejarano, who was aboard for both of the Flower Alley mare's victories. The rider has won 9-of-36 for this stable since the start of 2012. Comes back to earth today after finishing fifth of six in a $50,000 claimer November 10. Also moves from outside to inside.

Flashy Dame

Dominated $16,000 non-winners of two lifetime on Cushion Track November 15. The raise to open $25,000 represents a major class hike. Afleet Alex filly has won twice on the synthetic, but is 0-for-3 on turf and was well beaten by Born Lucky September 29. Trainer, however, has won seven of his last 18 moving from synthetic to turf with a $4.27 ROI.

English Rhythm

Won under similar circumstances at Santa Anita April 18, claimed by Bob Hess and taken to New York, where she went 5 0-1-3 while facing better. This will be her first try on the Inglewood lawn, but the grey has a solid overall record on turf (12 3-3-4). Top grass rider Corey Nakatani takes over.

Mia Isabel

May have needed her last and drops to a new career low for Doug O'Neill. Trainer is average second time off a layoff (15 per cent). Defeated better females February 3 with the help of fast fractions in front of her. Probably on the way down, but the jury is still out.

Spiced Latte

Showed speed for three quarters before fading November 16, her first start since January. Mike Puype wins at 14 per cent second back after a six-month plus layoff. Brice Blanc hasn't had much business lately, but is a superior turf rider. Doesn't seem as good as she was last year, when she won three of nine starts.

Lilly's Perfect

Winningest mare with seven victories comes off a strong third at one level higher. The daughter of Pleasantly Perfect is the only one in the field with more than one victory on the Hollywood Park turf. One of her strengths is a versatile running style, which she's used to finish in the money eight of nine this year. Rosario aboard is a bonus.

Love Tale (GB)

Class drop October 24 resulted in an improved effort. Often outruns her odds, including her last, where she was a close third at 14-1. Three works since and returns at the same level for Dean Greenman and Joe Talamo. All five victories have come on turf, including one on this course.

Deity (GB)

Fourth in a turf sprint November 7, her first outing since April 14. Finishing second in that race was Luxuriance, who returned to win. Today's distance seems wrong, however, as both of her victories were going short. Look for more speed from the English bred.

Race 6

Papa Smitty

Opened up in mid-stretch in the latest run only to fade late; his sire won a G2 stakes and 322K overall; the dam scored in 4 of 9 appearances earning 21K: there are no winning siblings to highlight; needs softer early splits today.

Sooo Major

After a bold rally 2 back despite bad racing luck, he finished midpack a month ago when bothered by the rail slot; subsequent workout activity is only average in nature and an alert getaway seems mandatory here.

Merlot Brando

Beginner was sired by 368K earner Ministers Wild Cat whose offspring have won 22 out of 191 debuts; the dam involved went zero for 7 lifetime; among the winning siblings is 190K earner Top Kidder.

Primal Lad

New face in this crowd blew out nicely from the gate the other morning; his sire own a G3 and 137K (progeny of Primarl Stor have done well first time out, winning 7 of 37); the dam was unraced; sib to 36K bankroller Jones Focus.

Tax Enough

That was a sharp effort on a wide path here last month when dropping to this level for the first time; should receive a similar, if not faster, pace set-up here and move forward; logical contender but odds may not be as inviting.

Runaway Que

Commendable showing in his second venture; his sire won 2 of 18 career starts and 97K while the dam went 2 for 5 earning 25K; this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate; very upbeat workout regimen during the last month.

Voluntary

Beginner was sired by Scrimshaw who won 461K including G2 success (his descendants have won 9 of 110 initial starts); the dam won 3 of 14 and 55K; among the winning siblings include 188K earner La Tormenta.

Exponentially

Has a decent first gear and did not like the role of a chaser in the last run before tiring badly; although there is other proven gate speed to consider in this event, he might be able to get the jump with the descent to this class; note latest half-mile drill.

Hitter's Alley

Displayed good closing kick in the last pair and, if all the pacesetting types remain in attendance today, has a legit chance; trainer/jockey combination is a distinct plus and he should be a major stretch threat here if finding a clear seam.

Matzoh Ball Magic

Broke to the outside as many firsters do when burdened with an extreme post position; his sire won the G1 Malibu and 450K overall; the dam won 5 of 35 and 35K; sib to 1-time winner Augusto; latest workout from the gate can help him focus.

California Jade

Rested since prompting the issue in the last assignment; previous try was a bitter, narrow defeat in a blanket finish; makes the powerful first visit to the claiming ranks but does not draw particularly well; very difficult runner to fathom.

Steppingood

Engaged in a long pace war at Golden Gate while the 6 to 5 favorite but had to settle for secondary honors; may be denied the lead from this outside slot as he was in the race on 9/27; very fine gate workout last month is a plus; respect.

Race 7

Lady Ten

A solid 5th vs. some very tough customers in a stakes at SA when last seen; trouble is, 'when last seen' was last Jan. 19 so that's a hefty layoff; at least there's no huge drop for her return, Baffert, of course, is superb off the bench and she's done plenty of good work over this course.

Moone's My Name (GB)

Came from England and made an immediate impression, nearly winning a stakes at SA April 7 anda then running a good 3rd in a G3 here April 28; hasn't been seen since but her U.S. debut shows she can fire fresh and that last run shows she handles this course just fine; those 2 efforts behind likely turf distaff champ Dank in the summer of 2012 look pretty darn good now, don't they?

Dancingtothestars

Just love the way she won that strong optional claimer at DMR Aug. 8, earning a huge Beyer in the process (100); trouble is, her 2 subsequent starts weren't close to that good; could it be she 'topped out' in that big Aug. 8 win?; it's possible; O'Neill has given her some time to regroup and it's nice to see she's not offered for a tag, but which gal do we get, the 1 who ran so big Aug. 8 or not-so-big in her last 2, hmmmmm?

Rock and Glory

Was gone over 13 months, dueled and fizzled in her Oct. 13 return at SA, but then vaulted forward to win in smashing fashion on this main track Nov. 16; looks as though she's back on track; that being said, there's a surface switch today; at least she's run well on turf (2 3rds in as many tries) but this still might not be her favorite game, and she's facing some tried-and-true turfers; but boy, you sure have to love the way she won last time, don't you?

Gulsary (IRE)

Good enough in France to earn a G1 show in Oct. 2012; after 2 dull runs to end her 2012 season there she wasn't seen for 9 months, and when she did resurface it was in the U.S., at DMR, and she ran on well for 4th; then moved forward to win a good N2X at SA Oct. 17; looks as though she's acclimated and on top of her game and that SA run shows she doesn't have to come from the clouds, either.

Hard to Resist

Eurton thought enough of her to ship east to KEE to try the G1 Spinster; OK, so those waters proved far too deep; well, then came a decent run at GG so the trip to Ky. apparently didn't take too much out of her; back to SoCal and a course she likes, though you look up now and realize you have to go back to May 2012 to find her last win; at least it came on this course.

Race 8

Market Notes

Off poorly two back, he has fired every time and note runner was 3 lengths clear of the show horse in last; runner has drilled steadily for this and if he can handle the rail, he just may be a good thing in an ordinary race.

Reps and Warrants

O'Neill 10 for 61 or 16% the last 5 years with debuting juvenile maiden claimers; Square Eddie 1 for 10 with debuting juveniles; sire, who was trained by O'Neill, won at 2, took a G1, earned over $800K; stakes placed 5 for 19 dam didn t go at 2, banked $235K; 5 of 6 siblings won, one cashed at 2; top earner One Chin Again banked over $200K; homebred has trained steadily.

No Longer Blue

Jones one for 8 the last 5 years with debuting juvenile maiden claimers; Bluegrass Cat about 16% with juvenile firsters in a 193-runner sample; sire won thrice at 2, took G1 Haskell, was 2nd in the Derby and Belmont; dam out of the money 4 times; this is her first to race; youngster looks fit enough.

Top Hot Rod

Gelding never really got untracked as he has to deal with the rail once again; 6 for 36 dam won at 2, banked nearly $160K; 5 of 6 siblings won; top earner Going for a Spin took a stakes, won at 2, banked nearly $340K; needs a rebound run.

Tiz the Season

Miller great with these types; he is 18 for 61 or 30% the last 5 years with debuting juvenile maiden claimers; Tiz Wonderful 15 for 69 with first-time juveniles; sire took debut at 2, won a Grade 2 as a juvenile, banked over $250K; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; in for $25K less than purchase price.

Black Tie

Late-running sprinter wanted no part of the miler in last but note runner was troubled two back when forced to steady; considering his style, backers have to hope they go bonkers early and the race falls completely apart.

Short Sword

Mitchell 6 for 17 the last 5 years with second shooting juvenile maiden claimers and 2 ran second; carefully placed here and he may have disliked the rail at the beach; SP 4 for 21 dam earned $160K, was 2nd twice in best juvenile results; this is her first to race; expect much better effort.

Illybilly Boy

Off a career Beyer but colt has been boxcars every time and is looking at the same fate; tough to take a positive stance on this guy today.

Rambling House

Pederson 3 for 8 the last 5 years with debuting juvenile maiden claimers and 2 others ran in the money; Bertrando about 13% with juvenile firsters in a 324-runner sample; sire took juvenile debut, won multiple Grade 1s; SP 4 for 18 dam won at 2, earned nearly $125K; 6 of 7 siblings won; top earner Miguel's Mascot won twice at 2, banked over $150K; drills ideally spaced.

Gliding Love

Caros Love 1 for 31 with first-time juveniles; sire won in second start at Caliente at 2, won a couple of stakes, earned almost $200K; dam out of the money in only start; this is her first to race; lean toward watching one.

Znelle

Youngster stalked to no avail in the return; if you figure he just needed the last race you can build a case for a move forward; runner does have sneaky speed and runner was over 3 clear in the Del Mar finale; must be left in the mix.

Capo

Don't be too harsh about the debut as there are a lot of ways to get beat at Pomona; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; like the renewed energy in the last couple of drills; respect.