Betfair Hollywood: Closer Looks for December 12, 2013

Race 1

Sister Glady Oh La

Last time she returned from a layoff dropping from an optional claimer to claiming and moving from route to sprint resulted in a victory (Sept. 3, 2012 at Golden Gate). Sherman has used Aaron Gryder 18 times over the last two years, winning four with a $3.73 ROI. Small field with less traffic negates impact of the rail.

Only Josie Knows

Hard-trying second here November 8, while well clear of the third filly. Broke her maiden on this oval rallying from last, but has shown much more speed lately. One level drop is logical and regular rider Alex Bisono stays put for Julio Canani. Rider, trainer team is 2-for-7 with a $4.31 ROI.

Freewayracer

Overall form not so hot, but popped up with two good tries on Cushion Track during the Spring/Summer meeting at giant prices. Seems at her best in the $12,500-$16,000 range, making her presence in this $32k claimer problematical. Did blow out three furlongs in a bullet :34 4/5 a week ago.

Tribal Chatter

Hasn't been risked for a tag since she finished second in a $40,000 maiden claimer April, 2012. Competitive, though a bit inconsistent, against better this year and should welcome the class drop. Stalking style is a plus and the Tribal Rule filly switches to the meet's second leading rider.

With a Miracle

Sharp second in a turf dash here November 28, a race made more meaningful by the fact she's better on the synthetic. One victory and two seconds in three starts since being claimed for $25,000 by Ron Ellis at Del Mar. Ellis, Espinoza have formed a formidable team since January, 2012 (33 per cent, $2.59 ROI). Will be up close on a moderate pace.

Appealing Resume

Defeated With a Miracle October 11, then was slightly out of her element in her last two. Alonzo Quinonez, recently returned from an injury, piloted the Successful Appeal to an 11-1 upset August 24 at Del Mar. Perfect style and post and could easily rack up her 13th career victory.

Race 2

Awesome Prospect

He showed some speed in his debut last out while running the kind of race he can build upon; the effort came over the same six and a half furlong distance he will travel in this spot; shows some nice works for what will be his first start since September; one of several who can share.

Mikey T

He makes several notable moves; he returns to the main track after racing on turf; he cuts back to a sprint distance; and he's back racing with maiden claiming rivals; can be closer to the pace than he found himself last time, as he broke in the air; leading contender.

Adamor

Barn changes things up and moves this one back to both the main track and a sprint distance; ridgling also makes his first start in the maiden claiming ranks; has been sent off at long odds in each of his starts, but might be a bit lower here for the class move; another who can share.

Street Choir

He returned from a brief break last out and ran a solid third at this distance at BHP; has reason to move forward in his second start back, and for the fact that he drops a notch in class; also gets in lighter than these under 10-pound bug Vandyke; win candidate.

Wistfullee Mine

He ran arguably the best race of his career last out when he added blinkers and Lasix; barn tries to keep the momentum going with the move to the maiden claiming ranks for the first time in his career; also gets in light under seven-pound apprentice Nicolas; moves forward again.

Gentlemen Pete

He's been knocking on the door against statebred competition, and while he leaves such rivals behind, he has faired well against open company in the past; gets back on the main track after racing on the turf and cuts back in distance; appears to be a leading contender.

Wonderful Union

He looks like the one these will have to catch; he came out running last race in his first start back from the break and the effort came over the same six and a half furlong distance of this race; has reason to move forward for the start, and adding to his appeal is the fact that he drops a notch in class; win candidate.

Race 3

Di Conti

Half-brother to G1 winner Boston Harbor (6-8, $1.9 million, no turf starts) has a high degree of early speed, but he's meeting up with winners for the first time after breaking his maiden for a 20k tag, and he tired badly in his one start over turf.

Green Dolphin

Sire is 0-for-7 with his turf starters and dam won 2 of 13 starts for 44k, including 0-for-2 over turf; this gelding is a 1/2 to Mt. St. Helens (2-8, 25k, including 2-for-2 over turf for 20k); winner from latest won next out here on 11/9 going 7f vs. 16-14k claimers with a 92 Beyer and runner up won next out here on 12/1 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 25-22.5k N2L claimers with a 78 Beyer.

Cinco de Mario

He sports the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here, and even though he earned that figure racing over the main track here, his turf form has been strong enough to suggest that he can be tough to deal with in this spot; don't like to see that he's yet to record a victory over turf, but he's a top contender nonetheless.

Crimson Giant

He's 1-for-41 lifetime and he's 0-for-29 going back through 2012; he might be capable of sneaking his way into a spot underneath in the exotics, but going to look in another direction for the top spot; note that he's finished behind today's rival Cinco de Mario twice in recent starts.

Sidepocket Champ

He deserves another chance to see what he can do racing over turf, and perhaps the distance got to him in his one start over turf prior to this; Talamo has won with 7 of 20 (35%) mounts for this barn in 2013, including 3 of 6 at the current meeting.

Hoosier Diddy

His lack of early speed is a major concern and he might find himself far outrun soon after the start while making his first start sprinting over turf; his one victory was earned against 8k MCL's at GG, and he looks like more of an outsider.

Nome

This colt has a fine pedigree for turf and his two starts sprinting over turf have been respectable performances; not wild about what he's done since winning is career debut, but still feel that he's a solid fit with these.

Race 4

Sir Macho

Displayed better-tactical speed in latest when stalking the leaders with 1st blinkers but the Beyer speed figure declined; today is the 3rd different racing surface of career trying dirt and turf previously now races on a synthetic oval; have mixed reviews from his DMR-all-weather workouts during the summer.

Cactus Shines

The runner-up, show and 12th-place finishers from last Beyered 67-60-30 in next-out LA-5K-maiden claiming, BHP-MSW and 50K-maiden claiming graduations; improved nicely 2nd-time out while the even finish suggests added distance will help move forward; races 2nd time back off the long layoff which is a high-percentage win angle from his trainer.

Oh Brother Go

Brief speed in latest now 1st blinkers and 1st time in a maiden claimer hoping to carry his speed a lot longer; the runner-up finisher from last graduated next out in a BHP-MSW race with an 80 Beyer; the 3-back runner-up Beyered 84 taking an SA-MSW event next out.

Friendswith K Mill

Debut Beyer when off slowly from the gate represents a field-best speed figure; regressed 2nd-time out when breaking poorly again but could not recover to make any impact vs. quicker and now drops to lowest spot of career; the added distance is a plus and if he ever breaks well watch out.

Heaveneleven

2nd-time out Beyer regression when racing on a synthetic surface for the 1st time; adds distance after the 2nd straight start with a trouble line attached; have seen flashes of talent in the morning workouts so some hopes the new hood will provide a strong-move forward.

Big Rosie Brown

Is the only debut runner in a field lacking superstars; gets tested by a field with all experienced racers; sire is a rock solid 10-for-50 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of an unraced dam who produced 1 winner from 2 other foals to race (6-for-25 Jomelo 316K).

Showmeister

Primed for this at longer while many of these will stretch out to their longest-distance tests ever; worked a SA-dirt bullet for this and looks like cutting back some in distance will work out well for him; high-percentage synthetic-surface trainer adds to the appeal.

Top Hot Rod

Began career with 2 double-digit length losses getting away from Market Notes who handled him twice already; back in just 1 week off the 2nd-time out Beyer regression; high-percentage maiden-claiming trainer is a plus but must show more.

Head South

Stamina has been the issue from first pair for a trainer who has been icy (0-for-12) at the current-BHP meet; the addition of blinkers 2nd-time out did not produce the improvement needed; figures to be part of the pace but adding 1F onto the distance is a big concern.

Race 5

Elusive Journey

If you're looking for the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here, you don't have to look any further, but this is an 18-race maiden who is making his first start sprinting over turf since January of last year, and that was 10 races ago; maybe it's best to limit him to a spot underneath in the exotics.

Mr Lemon Tree

He ran well the first time he raced over turf, but he didn't follow up that performance with a sharp try in his next start over turf, and his form sprinting over synthetic surfaces hasn't been very encouraging; wouldn't consider him a shocker in this spot, but prefer to side with others.

El Tovar

He has mild appeal from the standpoint that he didn't run poorly in his career debut over turf, and that this is his first turf start since then; he does have turf in his pedigree and he's a 1/2 to stakes placed Comoros (3-13, 173k, including 2 of 11 turf starts for 144k).

Omar Little

Sire wins with approximately 15% of his first-time starters and with approximately 10% of his turf starters, and dam won 2 of 4 starts for 69k, including 2-for-2 over turf for 57k; this colt is a 1/2 to Grumpy Small Mouth (4-13, 178k, including 3 of 6 turf starts for 135k); this is a strong first-out operation and this doesn't look like a bad spot to debut one.

Pressure Time

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his first-time starters and with approximately 12% of his turf starters, and dam was unraced; this is a barn that wasn't always geared up with first-time starters, but that has changed, and viewing the presence of Garcia as a positive indicator.

Atticus Scouts

He was outrun at every point of call in his belated career debut after going to post at nearly 90-1 and he's needed more than a year off since that start; prefer to give him a race and just watch him to see what he might be capable of going forward.

Dreamnofatticus

He looked good in his first two career starts, both sprinting over turf, and his form has been clouded a little since then by a turf route and starts over synthetic and dirt surfaces; he looks like one of the more legitimate options to consider in here.

Mr. Cappuccino

The 0-for-24 career mark alone is enough to make one look in another direction, but if there is a positive to consider, it's that his one start sprinting over turf was his best effort to date, and he finished right behind today's rival Dreamnofatticus in that race.

High On Final

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his turf starters and multiple stakes winning dam won 8 of 24 starts for 669k, including 4 of 11 turf starts for 351k; this gelding is a 1/2 to Super Ability (3-6, 146k, including 2-for-2 over turf for 75k) and Highly Rated (2-9, 99k over turf).

Stake Hunter

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his first-time starters and with approximately 16% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from two starts, and she didn't make a turf start; another firster for the Mullins barn in here and a few of the workouts hint at ability.

Do Some Magic

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam won 4 of 10 starts fpr 134k, including 2 of 5 turf starts for 77k; like to see the early speed he showed in his career debut and the move to turf might agree with this runner.

Apache Ambush

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; he's shown a little something in his first two starts, and if his latest workout is any indication, then he's cranked up for his turf debut.

Starry Shark

Sire wins with approximately 5% of his turf starters and dam was winless from eight starts, including one turf start; he needs to see a scratch from the main body of this race in order to get to go and he will need to show improvement in his first start wearing blinkers in order to contend.>

Race 5

Elusive Journey If you're looking for the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here, you don't have to look any further, but this is an 18-race maiden who is making his first start sprinting over turf since January of last year, and that was 10 races ago; maybe it's best to limit him to a spot underneath in the exotics. Mr Lemon Tree He ran well the first time he raced over turf, but he didn't follow up that performance with a sharp try in his next start over turf, and his form sprinting over synthetic surfaces hasn't been very encouraging; wouldn't consider him a shocker in this spot, but prefer to side with others. El Tovar He has mild appeal from the standpoint that he didn't run poorly in his career debut over turf, and that this is his first turf start since then; he does have turf in his pedigree and he's a 1/2 to stakes placed Comoros (3-13, 173k, including 2 of 11 turf starts for 144k). Omar Little Sire wins with approximately 15% of his first-time starters and with approximately 10% of his turf starters, and dam won 2 of 4 starts for 69k, including 2-for-2 over turf for 57k; this colt is a 1/2 to Grumpy Small Mouth (4-13, 178k, including 3 of 6 turf starts for 135k); this is a strong first-out operation and this doesn't look like a bad spot to debut one. Pressure Time Sire wins with approximately 9% of his first-time starters and with approximately 12% of his turf starters, and dam was unraced; this is a barn that wasn't always geared up with first-time starters, but that has changed, and viewing the presence of Garcia as a positive indicator. Atticus Scouts He was outrun at every point of call in his belated career debut after going to post at nearly 90-1 and he's needed more than a year off since that start; prefer to give him a race and just watch him to see what he might be capable of going forward. Dreamnofatticus He looked good in his first two career starts, both sprinting over turf, and his form has been clouded a little since then by a turf route and starts over synthetic and dirt surfaces; he looks like one of the more legitimate options to consider in here. Mr. Cappuccino The 0-for-24 career mark alone is enough to make one look in another direction, but if there is a positive to consider, it's that his one start sprinting over turf was his best effort to date, and he finished right behind today's rival Dreamnofatticus in that race. High On Final Sire wins with approximately 10% of his turf starters and multiple stakes winning dam won 8 of 24 starts for 669k, including 4 of 11 turf starts for 351k; this gelding is a 1/2 to Super Ability (3-6, 146k, including 2-for-2 over turf for 75k) and Highly Rated (2-9, 99k over turf). Stake Hunter Sire wins with approximately 10% of his first-time starters and with approximately 16% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from two starts, and she didn't make a turf start; another firster for the Mullins barn in here and a few of the workouts hint at ability. Do Some Magic Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam won 4 of 10 starts fpr 134k, including 2 of 5 turf starts for 77k; like to see the early speed he showed in his career debut and the move to turf might agree with this runner. Apache Ambush Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; he's shown a little something in his first two starts, and if his latest workout is any indication, then he's cranked up for his turf debut. Starry Shark Sire wins with approximately 5% of his turf starters and dam was winless from eight starts, including one turf start; he needs to see a scratch from the main body of this race in order to get to go and he will need to show improvement in his first start wearing blinkers in order to contend.

Race 6

Rathbaun

Toss race two back, wrong surface; 4th finisher in last took a $25K claimer next out at GG and the 6th finisher took an $8K seller there on 11/29; the 10/26 winner repeated 11/16 when posting another 78 Beyer; miss showed renewed energy in the drill here 8 days ago and you can make a case she will sit a nice stalk and pounce trip; rider has had good success for Miller; primed.

Warren's Flasher

Spotty race record is a concern; fully extended the last time in town, and she has not been able to duplicate that Beyer since; miss is making her synthetic debut, but she will have to learn the surface in the afternoon on the fly; would be careful here.

Melanistic

Forced to go pretty quick early last time on the cut back but she had nothing left when it counted; never in the money on the synthetic and that is a legit concern; 3rd finisher in the SA finale cashed next out in an N1X with a 79 Beyer; miss has drilled solidly of late accentuated by the blowout on Saturday; look for rider to be aggressive from the sound of the bell.

Changethechannel

Trainer shakes things up taking off the blinks here; 10/13 winner repeated in a $100K stakes, then was a distant 3rd in the Grade 2 Bayakoa; stakes placed to kick off the year, miss comes to this race relatively fresh and note Talamo was up for the maiden breaker; best when sent along, look for rider to be gunning from the sound of the bell.

Ubelongtomemissy

Miss was given time after the fiasco at Pomona and she ran her eyeballs out in defeat last time; she has run decently on the synthetic without winning but also note she lost ground in the lane in two of her 3 attempts routing here; could see her falling into a nice journey, maybe sitting 3 or so off a legit pace; don't ignore.

English Crossing

It took her awhile to figure it out but she has been consistent this year; in her three synthetic efforts she has been beaten a total of over 40 lengths combined; off rail as she drops off the claim; has some things to prove.

Demonsterous

Proven locally, shades back on as they were for the last victory and miss got a boost when the winner of last repeated in a $62.5K optional with a 79 Beyer; note miss was over 3 clear last time; in the local win, miss came from 6th in a $20K maiden claiming sprint with a 47 Beyer; not impossible task.

Race 7

Silver Hustler

Was an effective stretch runner in the Midwest last year, but is winless in six starts since arriving on the west coast. Been fairly close to the pace recently while flattening out, so new rider Brice Blanc might try to anchor her early today and make one run as she moves back to turf.

Indecise

On the verge of becoming stakes caliber at the start of the year when forced to the sidelines. Crossed the wire first January 18, but was disqualified back to seventh. The good news is that she is still eligible for this non-winners of two allowance. Mandella has put five 7-furlong works into her--she shouldn't be short.

Wittgenstein (IRE)

Second to Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Beholder in the Torrey Pines Stakes at Del Mar, but her surrounding races have been sub-par. Class drop helps, however her Beyer figures are relatively light and she'd probably have to improve against these.

Ricspretentiousgal

Kela filly is as honest as they come, finishing in the money 14 of 18 starts. Comes off an ultra game victory in which she surrendered the lead midway and re-rallied to defeat $50,000 claimers. Can either make the lead or sit second under Pedroza, who has produced a flat-bet profit ($2.51 ROI) when he rides for Sadler.

Fantastic Mizz

Sweeping move on the turn, took the lead midstretch, but was tagged on the wire by Ricspretentiousgal. It was a fine try for Jack Carava, who claimed the Mizzen Mast grey for $40,000 in her previous start. Steps up again, but will be in the catbird seat throughout and a victory would not be a major surprise.

Fanticola

Now 2-for-2 on turf after an upset victory down the hill October 24. Canadian bred has finished in the money all five starts and won her only try around two turns. Coming out of a sprint, Talamo probably will put her on the front end, but he has the option of sitting just off if necessary. Mike Mitchell and Talamo are 33-for-163 (20 per cent) since January, 2012.

Flashy Ways

Drops out of sophomore-only stakes to try older runners for the first time. Richard Baltas trainee comes from far back and probably will have to overcome tepid fractions. Last ran October 26, which is a plus, as this barn has done well (17 per cent, $4.08 ROI) with similar layoffs.

Miss Well Molded

Unusual Heat filly has never been better. She sat second and drew away for a victory over $32,000 claimers October 10 at Santa Anita. Claimed that day by Doug O'Neill, she stepped up to allowance company, took command immediately and won again with speed to spare. Her sharpness and versatility make her a bold threat.

Race 8

Notonthefirstdate

Off a tad slow to kick it off, now has to deal with the rail; stakes placed one for 13 dam earned about $75K, did cash at 2; 3 of 4 siblings won; top earner Ghost N Your Heart took debut at 2, won 5 of 16, banked about $90K; must display more.

Grandma Tractor

The stablemate in the debut was leading by a length and a half at the top of the lane but ran second; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; may need softer gang.

Mudge

This miss and the show horse was clear in the debut and at least she got a feel of the surface; 3 for 7 dam took debut at 2, won a stakes on NoCal Fair Circuit, banked $70K; lone half sis Arrow Flynn didn't go at 2, took 3 of 6, earned about $35K; that's a decent drill last Thursday.

I Dig Elle

French 0 for 5 the last 5 years with debuting juvenile maiden claimers but one ran third at 10-1; Dixie Chatter 3 for 26 with first-time juveniles; sire won twice at 2, took G1 Norfolk, banked over $450K; SP 1 for 4 dam earned almost $70K and did win at 2; this is her first to race; steady moves for trainer that has spotted them great all year.

Jogget

O'Neill good with this move; he is 9 for 50 or 18% with juveniles going MSW to maiden claimer; brief threat when possibly just overmatched, miss is in for $25,000 less than purchase price; place horse in the debut graduated next out in a MSW with an 81 Beyer; 3 for 14 dam won at 2, earned almost $50K; 3 of 5 siblings won; none won at 2 but top kin Paradise Dancer won a Grade 3, took 16 of 70, earned nearly $650K; rates legit look.

Too Obvious

Miss caught the fastest splits of her career and she just ran out of gas; shorter trip should be to her benefit; dam out of the money twice; 2 or 3 sibs won, one banked almost $50K but was out of the money in only try at 2; rider 26% for this barn this meet.

Reflective Glory

Homebred must be respected on the drop alone; SW 6 for 21 dam earned $300K, didn't race at 2; 6 of 7 siblings won; none won at 2 but kin Glorious Luck is a perfect 3 for 3 and the top sibling won 9 of 54, earned nearly $200K; got a feeling we have not seen the best of this one.

Time Linda Goteven

Backers got a thrill for about 45 seconds before reality set in; dam out of the money twice; this is her first to race; can never dismiss this kind of speed.

Semtex

Lack of speed a concern as miss is off the fence; Grade 1 winning 7 for 14 dam didn t go at 2, earned nearly $450K; both siblings won, neither race at 2; top kin Bowman's Causeway took 4 of 21, earned over $400K; could be left with too much to do late.

Capers N Wine

Carefully placed since solid debut; 3 for 26 dam was third in best moment at 2; the sibling to win did so once sprinting as older horse; slight improvement and she'll be right there.

Miraculous Mindy

Trainer is 6 for 56 the last 5 years with second shooting juvenile maiden claimers and 8 ran second; youngster looms the long-fused half of the Miyadi pair; SP 4 for 26 dam was 2nd twice at 2, banked over $140K; 4 of 6 siblings won; top earner Hello Bolly took 5 of 36, won at 2, earned almost $200K; series of drills since debut is a positive sign.