Betfair: Closer Looks for December 20, 2013

Race 1

Bosserette

In a race that is light on turf sprint form, this filly has looked good in both of her efforts sprinting over turf, and this has to be considered a favorable spot for her to meet up with winners for the first time; Stra has won with 4 of 11 (36%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Larocco

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam was winless from two starts, and she didn't make a turf start; this filly is a 1/2 to Pulpit Magic (2-14, 58k over turf, including 1 of 10 turf starts for 43k); 3rd finisher from latest won next out here on 12/5 going 6f vs. starter alw. rivals with a 51 Beyer.

Sprague River

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and dam won 2 of 10 starts for 38k, and she didn't make a turf start; speedy miss made it look easy in a 4 1/2f dash in her career debut and she has a nice little turf sprint pedigree.

South Sound

She ran to her backing in her career debut and she's seen nothing but stakes competition since; Maldonado has won with just one of 44 mounts for this barn at the current meeting, but this miss has a live look to her while dropping in class.

Sergeant O'Rourke

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and dam was winless from two starts, and she didn't make a turf start; have to respect what she's shown in her first three starts and she enters this race fresh off of a stakes placing; not going to be surprised if she gives a good account of herself against these in her turf debut.

D'ya Knowwhatimean

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; 3rd finisher from latest won next out here on 12/5 going 7 1/2f vs. 40-35k MCL's with a 55 Beyer; this is her first turf start, but she laughed at eight rivals in her career debut, and Bejarano has won with 5 of 13 (38%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting. By Brian Pochman

Race 2

Pay the Debt

Draws the fence for her return to the scene of his first out maiden score in the spring; filly has yet to hit the board in 7 tries since while having little to offer late; tough to make a serious case for her in her current form.

Hot Bride

Won first out on the engine at Del Mar but didn't have a lot to offer in her return against winners at Fairplex; maybe the return to this type of footing helps and she does drop in for a tag here; she'll obviously need to improve, but the Baffert barn brings them back ready and has had quite a meeting thus far.

Royaly Dunn

Tries winners for the first time after fighting back to break her maiden at a huge price first time over synthetic footing; she does bring some speed to the table but there is other lick in here and her barn has won just twice all year; she'll need to take a good step forward to have a say in the outcome here; have to side against the repeat.

Time for Angie

Statebred drops in for a tag for the first time in this open company spot; filly did show improved lick before fading in her local return and maybe she just finds this bunch much more to her liking; with Bejarano taking interest she can get in the mix for a share.

Golden Celestial

She held pretty well until late after getting caught in a pace duel in her first local spin; filly did show in her debut run that she's capable of tracking and firing and she sheds a signficant amount of weight with the double bug named today; consider.

For Emma

Filly drops in for half of what they paid for her in that crushing debut score after the big subsequent placing in the stake first time over the track; both of those efforts earned numbers that tower over anything any of today's foes has run; price will certainly be miniscule and have to question why they are willing to lose this SP filly for such a cheap price, but even if there is some type of hole in her, anything close to what she's run so far makes her awfully tough to down.

Stunning Drama

Speedy filly draws outside for the return to the scene of her local debut score; she tired from her pace efforts in the Mountaineer stake 4 1/2 months back and has been working well on dirt for the comebacker; proven off drills and back under the care of the outfit that originally had her, wouldn't be surprised if she jumps out to the lead and has to be run down. By Steve Grabowski

Race 3

Sultry Season

She's by a solid turf sire and she's out of a dam who won 3 of 18 North American turf starts for 91k, and she did face stronger competition in her two turf starts prior to this;that said, she's probably going to need to show up with an effort that earns her a career best Beyer Speed Figure to get the better of this field.

Midnight Lady

She ran well in her only turf start before now and it's worth noting how far behind she fell through the opening stages in that event; she's out of a stakes placed dam who won once from 12 turf starts for 70k, and Bejarano has won with 30 of 99 mounts for this barn in 2013.

Goldilocks Planet

She put together a decent performance in her one start over turf prior to this, a race that saw her finish behind today's rival Midnight Lady, and it's interesting to see her making her first start for a barn that has been live at this meeting; her dam won once from 11 turf starts for 70k, and Puglisi has won with 4 of 10 mounts for this barn at the current stand.

Pebble Beach Baby

This filly has a good deal of quality to her pedigree and she deserves her share of respect in this spot based on what she's shown racing over turf and synthetic surfaces; note that she's beaten a number of today's rivals and her two most recent races.

Julio's Gold

Sire wins with approximately 5% of his turf starters and dam won two of nine starts for 49k, including one of three turf starts for 33k; runner up from latest won next out here on 12/13 going 6f vs. 20-18k claimers with a 76 Beyer.

Now Hope

She was beaten by a couple of today's rivals in her latest outing and she only managed to beat one to the finish in her only attempt sprinting over turf prior to this; prefer to give the nod to others in here.

Bas

She seemed to agree with the move to turf in her latest outing and she might be looking forward to getting a chance to see what she can do sprinting over turf; note that she finished right behind one of today's key rivals in Pebble Beach Baby in her latest start.

Firendesire

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who won three of 19 starts for 57k, including one of three turf starts for 17k; she's going to need a career best run in her turf debut if she's to have a say in the outcome against these. By Brian Pochman

Race 4

Voluntary

Could not recover from a slow break in that first run; his sire was a G2 winner who banked 461K; the dam won 3 of 14 attempts and 55K; among the winning siblings is 188K earner La Tormenta.

Newport Red

Moderate work tab on view for this son of Tannersmyman who won 4 of 9 starts and 99K (his progeny are 10 for 82 as far as winning their first test); the dam won 2 of 15 and 41K; winning sibs include 48K earner Comical Vacation.

Next Book

Beginner was sired by G1 Norfolk winner Dixie Chatter who captured 464K and whose descendants have won 3 of 26 initial starts; the dam won 6 of 47 and 195K; sib to 58K earner Indian Gaming; trainer has scored with longshot firsters.

Candiz

This gelding's sire won a trio of G2 stakes and 1.12 million; progeny of Papa Clem have scored in 3 of 16 debuts; the dam won 2 of 4 and 31K; winning siblings include 16K earner Saltwater; latest half-mile drill was fair.

Short Sword

An interesting play on pace cross-reference; his sire won multiple G1s and 1.84 million; the dam won 4 of 21 and 160K; there are no winning siblings to mention; gets weight from the field and is worth some consideration.

Illybilly Boy

Definitely improved in the latest run when not far behind Rambling House; extra distance today would work to his advantage if he can receive an even more accelerated early set of fractions.

Exponentially

Keeps earning checks yet never seems to get bet; should be able to stay within range once again and land a share with clean stalking trip; had a vastly improved workout going into his last performance.

No Longer Blue

Nowhere in that first run because of the tardy getaway; his sire was a G1 victor who captured 1.76 million; the dam was without a tally in 4 attempts; this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate.

Rambling House

Re-rallied in his maiden voyage to capture the place; his sire won multiple G1s and 3.18 million in total; the dam won 4 of 18 and 122K; winning siblings include 150K earner Miguel's Mascot; nice blowout turned in Monday morning.

Giant Cowboy

Sired by multiple G2 winner Cowboy Cal who garnered 1.03 million (his offspring have won 1 of 22 initial attempts); the dam lost her only race; winning siblings include 140K earner Minstrel Queen. By Jim Kachulis

Race 5

Warren's Jeff G.

Hasn't hit the board since breaking his maiden at Fairplex Park in September, 2012. Off slowly and outrun at 85-1 down the hill October 31 and now moves further down for Jorge Gutierrez. Trainer good on the stretch out, but probably not this good.

Scorcher

Been alternating between routes and sprints and comes off a nice second in a turf dash in his first start on the Betfair Park lawn. Maldonado rides back for Bonde and the two have formed a profitable team (24 per cent, $2.42 ROI). Strong fit, though his only victory in 18 starts was back in 2011.

Beau Maverick

One-for-26 gelding ran poorly at this condition last time after many losses against inferior stock. Hasn't been out since June 1, 2012 for a trainer who is only 2-for-48 this year. Lone score came on grass at Turf Paradise in 2011.

Gallant Charm

Taken for $16,000 December 7 by A C Avila, a capable trainer who has struggled through a slow year (9 per cent). Beaten only a head the day he was claimed and appears to be coming up to a top effort. Winless on turf, but lost a photo on the surface May 25 at Golden Gate Fields.

Ancient Stone

Won a slow $25,000 maiden claiming sprint October 13, but wasn't disgraced against much better in his first try against winners November 22. Fits better in this league and must be given consideration if his odds creep too high.

Quick Cielo

Bet down to 2-1 last out in his first try around two turns and ran credibly for fourth, just two lengths back. Big drop in class for Mike Pender and should show improvement with the route experience under his belt. Mike Pender and Martin Pedroza have been solid over the last two years (17 per cent).

Warren's Big Cat

Long odds in his last five and it's very difficult to make a case for the Affirmative gelding today. One-for-30 lifetime and this trainer and rider are a combined 0-for-57 at the meeting. Only positive is that his lone victory came on this course.

Ransom Canyon

Flying second under similar circumstances December 1 makes the Purim gelding the one to beat. Though winless on this course, he has finished second in two of three starts. Bejarano, who enters the final three days one victory ahead of Talamo, has won 23 of 92 (25 per cent) for Doug O'Neill since the start of 2012.

Meringue Pie (GB)

Though dropping from an open $50,000 claimer to $25,000 non-winners of two lifetime, the sophomore tries older runners for the first time. Won his debut sprinting on turf in his native England in 2012, but has now gone 0-for-9 in the United States. Has enough speed to put him in the first flight and has high octane connections (21 per cent, $2.50 ROI).

Londinium

Ran like a short horse on Cushion Track November 7 after eleven weeks off. Had dead aim midstretch but couldn't sustain his rally. Three problems--a negative rider change, the outside post and three poor efforts on turf. By Mike Superstein

Race 6

Congregationalist

Reunited with Bejarano and drops to a career low for Vladimir Cerin. The rider-trainer duo has combined to win 22 per cent over the last two year. Songandaprayer gelding's main asset is speed, which could be compromised by the rail, especially with a speedball drawn just to his outside. Contender, but vulnerable.

D J Manlove

Had the lead the first quarter all three starts, including his debut maiden victory March 15. Idle since June and O'Neill has a sub-par record (9 per cent) with runners returning in this time frame. Best chance is to go all out for the lead and try to hold on.

Rock Off

Been away nine months, but returns at a higher level than he was claimed. Last four races were poor, however the Rock Hard Ten gelding has done his best work on Cushion Track. Broke his maiden here by 7 1-4 lengths July 5, 2012, then was runnerup in a $40,000 starter allowance two races later. Has the look of a live longshot.

Uncle Enroy

Bay Area shipper makes his first start on Cushion Track after being claimed for $8,000 by Armando Lage November 22. Lone victory was accomplished with blinkers, which will be removed today. Ran well against better earlier in the year, but his last dud is very hard to overlook.

Turn On the Brites

Had to settle for the place at even money last out against a similar field. Was second in his last two and also runnerup in two of three on Cushion Track. With the speed drawn inside, the High Brite gelding should get a perfect stalking trip. The last time Orozco was aboard, the 4-year-old was beaten a nose in a $40,000 starter allowance at Del Mar.

Hollywood Heist

Returns from an 18 month layoff at the bottom level for this condition. Most of his drills have been ordinary, but did blow out 5 furlongs in 1:00 2/5 December 12. Ice cold connections are a combined 2-for-70 at the meeting. Probably needs a race, or two.

Mr Superstition

Defeated $8,000 maiden claimers at Golden Gate in February, then trailed next time in an $8,000 non-winners of two lifetime. Returns at a much higher level, which probably explains why his trainer has won with only 3 of his 112 starters this year.

Crestatorre

One-for-26 lifetime, with his lone victory over a sloppy Santa Anita track in March, 2012. Gave way after a half mile in a longer race last time and quickly returns to sprinting. Ran fairly well on Cushion Track earlier in the year, and may be on the upswing after rejoining the Jorge Periban barn prior to his last start.

Quick Cenizas

Used to have sprint speed, but changed styles dramatically in his last six. Was 12th and last at the quarter pole in a turf miler at Golden Gate November 10, then ignited in the stretch to finish less than two lengths back. The Quick Action gelding is equally focused going short and gets a top rider for his return to the Southland.

Awesome Indy

Improved when lowered to this level November 9, but still offered little resistance in the lane. Once was a top prospect, earning consecutive speed figures of 94 and 95 back in 2011. Pivotal rider change to Talamo and should be prominent from the outset.

Proud Step

Been searching for his level since winning a slow $20,000 maiden claimer on the Barretts bullring. This is the lowest-priced non-winners of two lifetime offered on this circuit, but probably would still have to improve to contend. Does get some weight off with apprentice Gonzalo Nicolas aboard. By Mike Superstein

Race 7

Luckyvic

Not only is her 1-for-24 career mark a reason to look in another direction for the top spot, but her recent form hasn't been anywhere near her best, and she will need a top try if she's planning on putting pressure on the top contenders in here.

Promiscuoussuances

She's one of two in here with five wins next to her name, and four of those wins have been earned over turf; she has a lot of early speed to throw at these after breaking from an inside post and she shows up for a barn that gets results with turf sprinters.

Always a Chance

Can't ignore the presence of Talamo aboard another in here, but it is interesting to see Bejarano get the call as this mare gets ready to make her second start after a claim for the O'Neill barn, and Bejarano has won with 5 of 13 (38%) mounts for this outfit at the current meeting.

Ralphy Girl

Sire wins with approximately 7% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; she has some early speed, but there isn't a shortage of that quality in this event, and looking at this as being a tough spot for her to try turf for the first time.

Sibella

Silic has been a poor influence as a turf sire, and without the prospect of an early breather, it looks like this miss might have a tough time proving to be competitive in here; prefer to look toward others.

Flatter Thecowgirl

Flatter hasn't been a positive influence as a turf sire, and even though this miss put together a gate-to-finish victory to break her maiden at second asking, a very comfortable early pace scenario had a lot to do with it; she's going to see a much quicker set of early splits in her first attempt against winners.

Oscillator

She looks like she's going about as well as ever at the moment and it doesn't hurt to see that she ran well in her one start over this turf course; she sheds blinkers for this and she's being reunited with Maldonado who was aboard for her most recent victory.

Vegas Rules

Not wild about the lack of early speed that she's shown since being returned from a layoff two starts ago, but she certainly hasn't run poorly in those races, and she might be ready for a top try while making the third start of her current form cycle.

J and S Express

The 83 Beyer Speed Figure she earned for her latest performance represents the best last race figure in this field, and she ran well enough sprinting over turf two starts ago to suggest that the surface switch might not slow her down much; interesting to see Talamo land here.

Tangerine Tickle

With the exception of a race that was followed by a layoff two races ago, she really hasn't produced a poor performance to date, and have to respect the way that she was able to get the job done from off the pace in her latest outing; like to see what she's done in her three starts over this turf course and feel that she deserves to be listed among the contenders. By Brian Pochman

Race 8

World Famous Sam T

Misty'sgoldentouch 0 for 3 with debuters; sire won the debut at 2, was 7 for 18 after, earned $40K; 1 for 4 dam earned nearly $30K; lone half bro to race was just one for 15; could need experience.

Destino

Not sure how you push a runner like this in the top spot; okay, he s been value in the gimmicks and that is probably where his strength once again lies; he kind of runs the same race every time; backers have to hope they go bonkers early and the race falls completely apart.

Trial Spin

Double digits on the tote in every race this year; not good; top career Beyer was local but he lost ground that day when it counted; he also had to be off for 13 months for a pretty serious reason; runner has some issues to explain.

Artic Warrior

Off poorly twice, but he did show a little try in him last time; 1 for 8 dam cashed on grass, earned less than a grand a start; 3 of 6 siblings won; top kin Seventh Inning stretched his record to 8 for 38 and banked nearly $140K; don't ignore.

Coranto

Never thrilled to see the defeats at Fresno; three regressions since that head beat in October; considering the cut back, he could be left with a ton of work to do turning for home; not seeing it.

Silver Love

The drop is logical after a pair of dull ones; dam was unraced; lone full bro was 2nd in best result; off the rail here as one-for-one bug hired; brief threat?

Second Proposal

Best race did come on the synthetic but he sure had to hail the cab quickly in last; fit enough to drill a couple of times since the lats effort and nothing wrong with the best of 31 bullet 8 days ago; there are several winners in the tree, none were special; backers have to hope the drop shakes him up.

Twisted Recruit

Our New Recruit 5 for 41 with first-timers; Group 1 winning sire took 6 of 19, banked over $1.4 million; dam was unraced; lone full sister Our Lady Gaga took 1 of 5, earned nearly $20K; in for $14K more than purchase price.

Smooth Bay

Smooth Runner 2 for 30 with debuters; sire was 2nd in debut at 2, took 7 of 24 including a G3, earned over $400K; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; lean toward watching one.

Old Pueblo

Marino Marini 9 for 85 with debuters; sire won first 2 starts at 2 including a stakes, banked nearly $300K; dam was unraced; lone half sis Carissa took 3 of 17, earned nearly $75K; gelding looks fit enough.

Indygo Andy

Bobbled when taking little action at the beach; one for 6 dam earned nearly $15K; this is her first to race; with a clean start, it could be a whole new ballgame.

America Rising

The speed has been there, the stamina has not; no help from the 3 siblings who are a combined 0 for 9; Gryder got a chance to figure him out and his destiny should be in his own hands since he has legit speed; due.

Starry Shark

Gelding caught career splits last time and just could not keep up; maybe the blinks will help in that department; backers can point to the fact that 2 siblings won multiple races in the minor leagues; stablemate coming off a better effort.

Burlister

In for $450K less than purchase price in the second start; not the best of signs; dam was unraced; 2 of 3 siblings won; top kin Caribbean Pegasus took one of 6, earned over $100K in Japan; there are some red flags here. By Brian Mulligan