Bet This, Not That: Update on trainer angles at Gulfstream Park

Before the start of the Gulfstream Park meet Dec. 6, we used the Daily Racing Form Formulator to look at a handful of trainers and how they’ve fared at Gulfstream over the last five years. In analyzing the data, we identified angles that had proven successful or unsuccessful in recent history at the track.

These angles were not intended to be played as blind bets, which is to say they were not intended to supersede all other handicapping factors. For instance, if a horse in an upcoming race fell into a “Bet This” category, you’d have to determine if the horse seemed a worthwhile bet. Additionally, as they say in the financial world, past performance is no guarantee of future success.

Still, five weeks into the meet, we decided to look at how the angles have performed. Through Thursday, 39 horses had matched either a “Bet This” or a “Not That” angle from our original article. Let’s look at them.

"BET THIS" ANGLES

So far, 10 horses have matched a “Bet This” angle, and those horses have gone 10-5-1-0, returning $2.54 for each $2 win bet placed on them. The return on investment is dragged down by two odds-on winners, and so far, the horses who have matched a “Bet This” angle have gone off at median odds of 2.70-1, meaning they were usually either the favorite or second choice. Still, 50 percent and a positive ROI is nice, and we’d be okay with the win rate dropping as the meet progresses as long as the ROI stays strong. Below are each of the “Bet This” angles and how they’ve fared at the meet so far.

Todd Pletcher at Gulfstream in dirt-route stakes races.

Prior to meet at Gulfstream: 57-25-10-7, $3.09 ROI

Current meet: 1-1-0-0, $4.20 ROI; Liam’s Map in Harlan’s Holiday

Chad Brown at Gulfstream in maiden-claiming turf routes with horses not making their debut.

Prior to meet at Gulfstream: 33-14-5-6, $3.16 ROI

Current meet: 3-0-1-0

Kirk Ziadie in dirt sprints with maiden claimers.

Prior to meet at Gulfstream: 24-13-4-2, $2.92 ROI

Current meet: 3-3-0-0, $3.73 ROI

Peter Walder going route to sprint.

Prior to meet at Gulfstream: 31-15-4-5, $3.99 ROI

Current meet: 1-0-0-0; Palatine Hill at 3-1

Bill Mott going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weights at Gulfstream.

Prior to meet at Gulfstream: 15-4-2-1, $4.96 ROI

Current meet: 1-0-0-0; Garden Princess at 23-1

Marty Wolfson going sprint to route in the second start following a layoff.

Prior to meet at Gulfstream: 22-5-3-3, $5.00 ROI

Current meet: 1-1-0-0; $7.80 ROI; Best Behavior in the Glass Slipper

"NOT THAT" ANGLES

Through Thursday, 29 horses had matched a “Not That” angle, and only one of them won, which was Atreides at the measly odds of 2-5 – no great loss. The record for the “Not That” horses is a combined 29-1-1-4, a $0.10 ROI, or 5 cents on the dollar. It’s worth noting that the median win odds for those horses is 4.90-1, and only six of those horses were 10-1 or higher.

Pletcher horses in for a tag (other than maidens).

Prior to meet at Gulfstream: 44-12-7-4, $1.35 ROI

Current meet: 3-0-0-1; third at 4.40-1; off the board at 3-5 and 4.40-1.

Brown in turf routes with first-time starters.

Prior to meet at Gulfstream: 32-2-4-2, $0.83 ROI

Current meet: None yet

Brown at Gulfstream with horses who go off at 5-1 or higher.

Prior to meet at Gulfstream: 104-6-16-14, $0.88 ROI

Current meet: 5-0-0-1; third at 5-1; off the board at 6-1, 7-1, 24-1, and 30-1

Ziadie in turf routes.

Prior to meet at Gulfstream: 37-3-8-6, $0.47 ROI

Current meet: 3-0-0-0; off the board at 4-1, 9-2, and 6-1.

Walder in the first start following a claim when protected (i.e., not in for a tag).

Prior to meet at Gulfstream: 16-0-1-4

Current meet: 1-0-0-0; off the board at 5-2

Mott maidens (other than dirt to turf and route to sprint in maiden special weights).

Prior to meet at Gulfstream: 366-32-51-37, $1.00 ROI

Current meet: 12-0-0-1; eight went off at 5-1 or less, and three favorites were all off the board.

Wolfson in routes at Gulfstream after a layoff of 61 days or more.

Prior to meet at Gulfstream: 39-3-7-4, $0.89 ROI

Current meet: 5-1-1-1, $0.56 ROI

These are just a few examples of great bets to target and some to avoid. Every day at every track, you will find many examples of these kinds of great (or awful) opportunities. DRF Formulator gives you the keys to find these angles, and it very well could lead you to a winner overlooked by much of the betting public. Check out the different Formulator plans available, priced for every budget.