Bet This, Not That: 2015-16 Gulfstream Park championship meet
Before the start of the Gulfstream Park championship meet last year, I used DRF Formulator to look at a handful of trainers with an eye toward bets to target, as well as ones to avoid. The recap article of that meet features a number of bets that I expect to remain positive or negative for this meet. For this article, though, I wanted to use some other features of DRF Formulator to find other wagering opportunities.
Shippers
All DRF Formulator plans (five cards and above) come with DRF Plus access for free. One of the best features of that access is the chart archive, which can be searched by horse or track. I used that archive to look at every race run during last year’s meet and analyzed which tracks the winners were coming from. In general, shippers won at a little more than a 10 percent rate, which isn’t surprising, considering most races early in the meet consist mostly of shippers, and later in the meet, they are much rarer. Top circuits such as New York, Southern California, and Kentucky win at a higher rate, while shippers from others won much less frequently, though often at bigger odds. Let’s look at a couple shipper angles that performed well, as well as some that underperformed.
Bet This: Shippers from Kentucky
Horses coming from races at Churchill or Keeneland: 280-41-28-29, $1.91 ROI
Last meet, shippers from Southern California did well at Gulfstream (35-10-5-2, $2.35 ROI), and many of those winners actually were East Coast horses making their first start following the Breeders’ Cup. There’s no reason to expect that trend won’t continue, and the good news is that Kentucky shippers often were very live at Gulfstream last year, even without the Breeders’ Cup being run there. Keeneland shippers won more than 15 percent of the time at Gulfstream, nearly identical to shippers from Aqueduct. Shippers from Churchill, though, were a better bet, going 28 for 196 and returning $2.11 for each $2 win bet. The median winner paid a juicy $10.60, and seven of those winners paid more than $20.
Not That: Shippers from New York
Horses coming from races at Aqueduct, Belmont, or Saratoga: 435-56-57-55, $1.18 ROI
Okay, I’m obviously not suggesting that you try to beat every horse shipping in from a NYRA track. After all, they won about 13 percent of their races. However, it is worth noting that many of those shippers proved to be over-bet, and very few outperformed their odds. Of those 56 winners, 40 paid less than $10, and only four paid more than $20 to win.
Here’s how all of those runners performed, based upon where they raced in their previous start:
| Track | Starts | Win | 2nd | 3rd | Win % | ITM % | $2 ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aqueduct | 219 | 34 | 28 | 22 | 15.53% | 38.36% | $1.39 |
| Belmont | 167 | 16 | 22 | 27 | 9.58% | 38.92% | $1.02 |
| Saratoga | 49 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 12.24% | 38.78% | $0.77 |
Sires
DRF Formulator gives you access to North American performance records for the progeny of sires through the Sire Snapshot tool. Just click on the name of the sire, and you’ll get an overview of how those runners performed in races at similar distances and on similar surfaces as that day’s race. The default view is showing all runners in the past five years, but you can toggle to off-track runners and view lifetime runners as well. Also, through DRF Plus, you have access to the Debut Reports, which shows you year-by-year stats for debuting horses by sire, dam sire, and trainer.
Bet This: Progeny of Munnings on a wet track
Munnings went to stud in 2011, so his first foals will turn 4 Jan. 1. That means he has only two crops of offspring to run, but so far, those runners definitely have shown a preference for wet tracks. As of Dec. 2, his foals on wet dirt tracks have won 17 of 52 races (33 percent), and the older crop has fared even better, winning 10 of 21 races on an off track. Definitely upgrade your opinion of any Munnings horses if the track comes up wet.
Not That: Progeny of English Channel making their debut
English Channel won the Eclipse Award in 2007 as champion older male turf horse, and he’s proven to be a solid sire of turf runners. However, they rarely win their debut. In 2015, offspring of English Channel have gone just 43-1-4-1 in their debuts; that’s just a 2 percent win rate and barley 15 percent in the money. The lone winner was a Mike Maker horse who paid $7.40 to win, so the $2 ROI for all of them is just 17 cents. His numbers for 2014 were nearly as poor – 49-2-6-2 – and he wasn’t any better in 2013, going 30-1-4-2 with horses making their debut.
Bet This: Juvenile progeny of Include in dirt sprints
The more you use the Sire Snapshot in Formulator, the more you’ll realize that most sires have about a 15 percent win rate in most situations with their progeny. It may vary up or down a couple percentage points in some spots, but most good sires have a win rate between 13 and 17 percent. Any strong variation above or below that 15 percent mark is noteworthy, especially if the sample size is large (i.e., more than 100 runners). That’s why it’s worth upgrading the 2-year-old offspring of Include in dirt sprints if you see any early in the meet. They’ve gone 44 for 206 in those races in the past five years, winning at a 21 percent rate. Even after those juveniles turn 3 after Jan. 1, it’s definitely worth keeping an eye out for those runners.
Not That: Juvenile progeny of Bernardini in turf routes
Bernardini went to stud in 2007, so he’s had six crops of offspring to race so far, a fairly large sample size from which to pull. Therefore, it’s a little surprising to realize that a 2-year-old Bernardini never has won a turf route in North America – never. Forty-eight different horses have tried, and those runners have gone 0 for 63 combined in turf routes. Sure, a few have won sprinting, and there have been some that won going long on grass at age 3, but in general, be very wary of taking short prices on young horses by Bernardini in turf routes.
These are just a few examples of great bets to target, as well as ones to avoid. Every day at every track, you will find many examples of these kinds of great (or awful) opportunities. DRF Formulator gives you the keys to find these angles, and it could very well lead you to a winner that is overlooked by much of the betting public. Check out the different Formulator plans available, priced for every budget.