Bernier: Santa Anita pick three for Sunday, Sept. 30, 2018

The defection of Fashion Business from the John Henry Turf Championship at Santa Anita has me interested in a mid-card pick three comprised of a $25,000 claimer going down the hill, the Grade 1 Zenyatta, and the Grade 2 John Henry.

RACE 4 – CLM 25000

Speed has done well thus far going down the hill, and I’m going to stick with horses who possess that kind of running style for the time being. ALLABOUTMIKE (2) owns a couple of victories over the hillside turf course, and he brings solid early foot to the table. It remains to be seen if PURIANO (3) can handle the hill, but I like that he’s at least shown the ability to pass runners without having to come from well off the pace. TIZ A BILLY (5) turns back in distance after setting blistering fractions in a one-mile event at Del Mar on Aug. 19; it’s worth noting that he nearly won his maiden with this move back in the fall of 2015. INCENSED (6) may not be the most trustworthy on the win side of things (nine times a runner-up from 27 lifetime starts), but he’s run well down the hill in the past and owns figs that certainly make him a contender.

RACE 5 – G1 ZENYATTA

Simply put, if ABEL TASMAN (2) comes with her “B” game, she’s going to win the Zenyatta. I realize this is nothing more than a prep for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in a few weeks, but her form lays over this field, and there’s no reason to believe she’s vulnerable; she’s a single.

RACE 6 – G2 JOHN HENRY TURF CHAMPIONSHIP

Had FASHION BUSINESS (7) not been withdrawn, this sequence likely wouldn’t have been all that appealing, considering he and Abel Tasman were likely to be odds-on favorites. With his defection, this race becomes a bit more intriguing. YA GOTTA WANNA (4) ran quite well to finish second behind Fashion Business two starts back in the Del Mar Handicap, especially when considering the tough trip he encountered. A dirt start most recently should be forgiven, and a replica of that effort two back makes him a major threat today. I’m also going to use SECRETARY AT WAR (5) for trainer Richard Baltas, a winner in his Southern California debut on Aug. 18. The additional distance is a bit of a question mark for this son of War Front, but I don’t think it will be an issue, and it doesn’t hurt that the 10-furlong events at Santa Anita begin going down the hill; that can help horses who may be slightly distance-challenged and make the trip seemingly play a bit shorter.

THE PLAY

$5 P3 – 2,3,5,6 with 2 with 4,5 = $40