Bernier: Santa Anita pick three play for Sunday, Jan. 11

If you can beat Tiz Midnight in Sunday’s featured event at Santa Anita, I think there could be some value to be had in the late pick three. The sequence consists of races 7 through 9.

RACE 7

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The feature of Sunday’s card is the $75,000 Paseana Stakes, and TIZ MIDNIGHT (4) is strictly the horse to beat. She has fantastic early speed and is undoubtedly the class of the field. That being said, I feel as though her last effort in the Bayakoa at Los Alamitos was a bit taxing and she will face legit pace pressure throughout from MY SWEET ADDICTION (6). Accordingly, I’m tossing both of them and hoping to pop a nice price in the first leg of this wager. LEGACY (1) actually ran quite well in the Bayakoa last time out, and she figures to get another solid setup in front of her. However, she often times is her own worst enemy – generally she doesn’t relax until the backstretch, and it’s never good using up so much energy early on while trailing runners. If she can relax and rate I think she has a great shot at a nice price. The other horse I will use in the first leg is WARREN’S VENEDA (5), although I admit – I’m not sure she can run any better than she did last out…and she still wasn’t good enough to beat Tiz Midnight. She will again get a nice setup, but at some point she’s going to have to step up and get the job done.

RACE 8

The eighth is a salty mile event on grass, and I will be using two runners – BIG JOHNNY D (3) and EL NINO TERRIBLE (4). Big Johnny D makes his first start in North America, and while trainer Dean Greenman’s numbers aren’t good over the past year I think it’s worth noting the presence of Martin Garcia aboard. He will also get the addition of Lasix for the first time, and we’ve seen how often these European runners take a huge step forward once they receive the medication. The other runner I’m using, El Nino Terrible, figures to be on the engine throughout. The biggest question for this 4-year-old colt? Will he be able to take to grass – this is going to be his turf debut, but based on his lone synthetic effort and his pedigree I don’t think that’s going to be much of an issue. If Fernando Perez can get this son of Malibu Moon to relax a bit on the front end I don’t see why he can’t get brave and try to wire this field.

RACE 9

I’ve got quite a strong opinion in the Sunday nightcap, and the horse I love is BANDIDO TOO (3). Bandido Too will be dropping back into $30,000 claiming company after making his last start amongst $75,000 claimers, as well as going out for trainer Tim Yakteen who is a perfect 3 for 3 with runners coming off 61-180 day layoffs. It’s also worth noting that Bandido Too has been gelded since the last time we saw him. In a field where there are no superstars, it’s hard to argue all of the positives this runner brings to the table. He’s a single for me in the finale.

The play

$1 pick three - 1,5 / 3,4 / 3 = $4