Bernier: Santa Anita pick three play for Saturday, Oct. 24

Saturday’s late pick three features the return of 2015 Santa Anita Derby winner Dortmund, and while he’ll likely be a heavy favorite I don’t think that necessarily means he’s a slam-dunk to win. I’ll focus my attention on this sequence, races 7-9.

RACE 7

SECOND SUMMER (9) enters the Twilight Derby on the heels of winning his maiden at Del Mar on Sept. 6, and although he’s facing an entirely new level of talent in his graded stakes debut, he could be a good one. He’ll be coming on from the back of the pack in a field that features solid early speed, so the pace scenario should work to his advantage – the only question now becomes is he good enough? OM (3) is the horse to beat in this spot, and he’ll be bet accordingly. An impressive winner of the Del Mar Derby last month, this son of Munnings possesses good early speed and should be on the lead as the field turns for home.

A: 3,9
B: NONE
C: 1,6

RACE 8

MOTOWN MEN (2) projects to sit a beautiful trip just off the early pacesetters, DORTMUND (5) and MYSTERY TRAIN (6). Don’t hold the poor effort at Los Alamitos against Motown Men, as some horses seem to either love or hate that track. With that running line out of the past performances, this gelding is rock solid and very consistent. He should fire his shot in this spot. As for others to consider, Dortmund is obviously logical – but I don’t love him from a value standpoint. He’s very likely to be the heavy favorite in both the win pool as well as the multi-race wagers, and because of that I’ll be using him only defensively as a “C”. POINT PIPER (3) has looked like a different horse ever since arriving in the barn of Jerry Hollendorfer, and it wouldn’t be surprising at all if he were to get the job done in the Big Bear Stakes.

A: 2
B: NONE
C: 3,5

RACE 9

The finale is a maiden special weight affair at a mile on grass, and the logical horses should be respected. CANADA (7) has paired 57 Beyer Speed Figures in his first two career starts, and a forward move could be on tap here. He’ll need to move forward if he’s to get the job done, but there’s no reason to believe it’s not coming now. BRITISH BULLDOG (10) ran a very solid race in his career debut at Del Mar on Sept. 5, unfortunately for him he ran into Tequila Joe – a horse pre-entered for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Mike Smith now takes the mount on this son of Successful Appeal, and he could ultimately prove to be the horse to beat. AZTEC WARRIOR (11) debuts for Doug O’Neill and Rafael Bejarano, and while the far outside post is a major detriment, all of O’Neill’s 2-year-olds must be respected.

A: 7,10,11
B: NONE
C: NONE

:: See Matt Bernier’s pick three play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets