Bernier: Santa Anita pick five play for Sunday, Jan. 4
THE PLAY:
5,6,7,8 / 1,4,5,8 / 1,2,3,4 / 7,13 / 6 = $64
RACE 1
The opening leg of this major pick five carryover sequence is a salty one, and I’m looking to use a handful of runners. WHEN WE MET (5) exits a smart victory at Santa Anita and should get a solid pace to close into. HADFUNLASTNIGHT (6) seems to be a bit off form at the moment, but based on his back class there stands reason to believe he can bounce back here. NO CONTINGENCY (7) is coming off a rather lengthy layoff, but if he can revert to that effort on May 25 he has every right to get the job done here. QUALITY PLAN (8) is a bit of an X-factor in here as he tries dirt for the first time today, but based on those past two published works he’s taken to the surface just fine.
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RACE 2
Both WAR DESTINY (8) and LOGAN’s MOON (1) figure to take the majority of the betting public’s interest in the second, but I will also include two first-time starters – one from the barn of Richard Mandella, the other from the barn of Carla Gaines. TWENTYTWENTYVISION (4) debuts for Mandella, and while Mandella’s numbers aren’t spectacular with first-time starters I love the fact that this runner has drilled multiple times past the distance of today’s race. UPTOWN RYTHEM (5) has a sparkling work tab for Gaines, and he appears to be a must use on all multi-race tickets.
RACE 3
Easily the most competitive leg of the sequence and d I found it hard to have a strong opinion about any runner. There are numerous Formulator Facts worth noting:
SUVA HARBOR (1):
John Sadler
Past five years, turf to dirt, maiden winner last out: 3 for 5 (3 in the money), $4.11 return on investment
PARTY ROCK (2):
Bob Baffert
Past year, dirt, maiden winner last out, sprint to route: 5 for 8 (6 ITM), $2.27 ROI
OLIVIA’s GREATDANE (4):
Bob Baffert
Past three years, synthetic to dirt, maiden winner last out, routes: 5 for 11 (7 ITM), $3.36 ROI
ALL STAR BUB (6):
Jerry Hollendorfer
Past three years, dirt, maiden winner last out, routes: 1 for 8 (5 ITM), $0.50 ROI
Even though she sports the highest last out Beyer in the field, I’m going to try to beat All Star Bub based on that Formulator Fact. The only other runner I will include is the Mark Casse trainee, MISS MANDATE (3). She has legit speed and is dropping considerably in class, exiting the Delta Princess – a race which was won by likely champion 2-year-old filly, Take Charge Brandi.
RACE 4
If you’re on a very tight budget for today’s pick five, I would suggest singling METABOSS (7) here. This son of Street Boss has run two very nice races over the grass, and in his latest try on Nov. 29 I felt as though he ran a winning-type race; the only problem for him that day was running into a horse called Bolo, who returned to win smartly here at Santa Anita in a stakes race – and he projects to be a major player in the turf division going forward. There likely aren’t any horses the caliber of Bolo here today, and I think Metaboss is strictly the horse to beat. If you’re willing to expand a bit, I would also include the third-place finisher from that Del Mar heat on Nov. 29, STUFFED ANIMAL (3). He ran quite strong in his grass debut that day, and I personally believe Fernando Perez moved too early aboard this son of Leroidesanimaux. One other runner that I’m very interested in is MILTEE (13). His last effort wasn’t very inspiring, but his try going a mile on Sept. 27 makes him at the very least a decent contender; I also think the fact that he’s reported as a first-time gelding today for Simon Callaghan is very intriguing. If anyone can nip Metaboss today I think it may be Miltee.
RACE 5
KILL SHOT (6) exits a live statebred race on Oct. 25, and the race he ran that day was quite strong. This Bruce Headley trainee contested the pace with two other runners while being wide throughout, only to put both of those horses away before being run down late. Today he will cut back from 6 ½ to six furlongs, and I don’t see the same sort of speed signed on in this spot. Mike Smith should have this son of Cyclotron positioned beautifully just off the early speeds and ready to pounce down the lane. If you’re looking for another runner to include, MEMPHIS (7) is ideally drawn on the outside; I think he’s better on synthetic, but there’s no denying the fact that h will be running on late.