The Belmont Gold Cup/Belmont Stakes double is a tough wager to have much confidence in since we’re dealing with a 16-furlong turf race and a 12-furlong dirt race. Considering that neither of these races will be contested at a distance that is common here in the United States, a great deal of projecting needs to be done when trying to smoke out horses who are best suited to stay these marathon distances. Below I’ve laid out the horses I’m most interested in, along with the odds I believe would represent fair value on each runner. BELMONT GOLD CUP DA BIG HOSS (5) appears to be the most talented runner at longer distances in here. But there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to stay on for 16 furlongs, and taking anything close to his morning line of 3-1 does nothing for me. At this distance, I don’t want Da Big Hoss at anything less than 9-2. NOW WE CAN (13) is a European import, and while his best races have come over synthetic surfaces overseas, we’ve seen Euros come over and run in our marathon races successfully. He’s a 6-1 chance in this spot as far as I’m concerned. The horse I’m truly interested in is MY AFLEET (10). There’s a fair chance that this James Lawrence trainee isn’t good enough to run with these horses, but the fact that he’s shown speed in the past makes him interesting. His most recent start at Laurel was a troubled one, and it was his first race in just over one year. A forward move from the return, as well as a forward placing throughout, could make My Afleet interesting at a huge number. HORSES (with my personal odds) 5) Da Big Hoss, 9-2 10) My Afleet, 9-1 13) Now We Can, 6-1 BELMONT STAKES EXAGGERATOR (11) is the most likely winner of the Belmont Stakes simply based on accomplishments alone. With two victories and a runner-up finish in his past three starts, all Grade 1 races, Exaggerator comes into the Belmont as the deserving favorite. But this game is about value, and Exaggerator won’t offer any in this wager. He’s likely to go off at a miniscule price in a race where there are numerous unknowns, and he won’t be included in my plays. GOVERNOR MALIBU (1) exits a solid effort in the local prep for the Belmont Stakes, the Peter Pan, on May 14. He’s likely to sit much closer to the pace than he did in the Peter Pan simply because there isn’t likely to be much early foot signed on. Governor Malibu is on the upswing for proven connections (Joel Rosario and Christophe Clement teamed up to win the 2014 Belmont with Tonalist) and figures to have a legitimate chance here at a decent price. DESTIN (2) is the Todd Pletcher entrant I prefer in the Belmont. It feels like this has been the goal all along for the connections – run in the Kentucky Derby off an eight-week layoff and follow up with the Belmont – and his tactical speed could prove to be a difference maker. Look for Javier Castellano to keep Destin within shouting distance of the pacemaker (GETTYSBURG) and begin to make his move nearing the three-eighths pole. HORSES 1) Governor Malibu, 6-1 2) Destin, 6-1 THE PLAYS 5-1 if double pays $66 or more 5-2 if double pays $66 or more 10-1 if double pays $200 or more 10-2 if double pays $200 or more 13-1 if double pays $100 or more 13-2 if double pays $100 or more