Bernier: Pick six play for Del Mar for Wednesday, Aug. 13

Another Wednesday, another pick six carryover at Del Mar. Just like last Wednesday, the six-race sequence is brutally difficult. If you’re going to hit this, you’re going to need to be both sharp and lucky. Here’s my ticket:

RACE 3

The pick six kicks off with a contentious field going nine furlongs on Polytrack, and I’d suggest spreading if you’re part of a syndicate or have a huge budget. I ended up using only two here.

The most likely winner of the race is Hurricane Lake. I’m expecting Rafael Bejarano to have this one reasonably close to the pace (which I don’t think will be very fast) and hopefully allow him to find a seam turning for home and get the job done.

FORMULATOR FACT: Trainer Mark Glatt is 5 for 12 (8 in the money, $6.50 return on investment) over the past two years with horses routing in claiming events who were claimed by him last out.

If I was forced to, I wouldn’t be opposed to taking a stand with Hurricane Lake as a single here, but I don’t think there’s very much pace in this heat, so I’m also using What Goes Around. This guy stopped badly last out when going a mile on grass here, but he was making his first start off a long layoff and set very hot fractions. It should be noted that he earned the highest last-out Beyer Speed Figure (82) in the field; he’ll need to stretch his speed another furlong here, and maybe he simply isn’t good enough, but I’ll be kicking myself if I let the likely lone speed of the race knock me out in the first leg.

HORSES: 6 – Hurricane Lake, 7 – What Goes Around

RACE 4

The first single of the sequence for me comes here, and it’s the very logical Perfect Set. The two other runners I thought about were the ones directly to his inside, Goyan and Bench Press. My only issue with those two is I can see a scenario where they each gun for the lead and knock the starch out of one another, setting things up for a horse to come from off the pace.

Enter Perfect Set, who not only owns the field’s top last-out Beyer but is going out for trainer Robertino Diodoro, who does very well with horses like this.

FORMULATOR FACT: Diodoro is 5 for 21 (12 ITM, $2.28 ROI) over the past year with horses routing in claiming events whom he claimed last out.

HORSES: 5 – Perfect Set

RACE 5

This contentious maiden special weight affair is the leg of the wager in which I went deepest.

Redshirt blew the start in her debut before rallying wide and finishing with interest. It was a very encouraging debut considering the early trouble, and she’s bred to run for days, so the stretch from six furlongs to a mile is of little concern.

She’s Complete is the X factor. She wasn’t anything spectacular in Ireland for her first two efforts sprinting on grass, and she hasn’t been lighting up the work tab in the mornings. But I’d feel like a buffoon if I let this horse knock me out of the sequence.

Hone In could offer some value should she win, and although she wasn’t very good in her debut at Woodbine, trainer Victoria Oliver has sent out three live runners at this meeting. This filly wouldn’t be here, and Corey Nakatani wouldn’t be taking the mount, if she was without a shot. At 10-1, she’s a real contender.

Awesome Diamond is my top pick here, and not just because I love her breeding. Her debut effort was quite good, as she was full of run late once she changed leads down the stretch. With a bit of maturation, this daughter of Galileo will have a big say in the outcome.

HORSES: 4 – Redshirt, 6 – She’s Complete, 7 – Hone In, 10 – Awesome Diamond

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RACE 6

At first glance, I thought I may have found a potential single in Benba, until I actually dug into the handicapping. Although this gelding’s Beyers tower over most in this field and he figures to sit a phenomenal trip, I can’t get past the fact that he loves to run second (5 of 19 lifetime, 4 of 10 this year); he went from a horse I was considering putting all my weight on to being a complete toss.

Cat Meeting is a horse who will improve dramatically with the added distance he’ll get today, and I can’t help but think that sprint was nothing more than a tune-up (he’d been away since November 2012 prior to that last start).

Cinmars Dance trailed well behind the field July 17 but still put in a big move on the far turn, ranging up very wide before leveling off a bit. Based on visuals alone, that effort makes him a contender, but when you also consider that he was running against a wicked speed bias, it makes that effort even more impressive. It won’t shock me to see this son of Cindago rolling late.

HORSES: 6 – Cat Meeting, 7 – Cinmars Dance

RACE 7

The $90,000 Green Flash Handicap has quite a bit of quality and figures to be a fun race. Caracortado is your likely favorite, and rightfully so. He’s a hard hitter who generally runs his race, but this guy has had such terrible foot problems that it is fair to wonder how much gas is left in the tank. I’m using him, but he’s my third choice.

The figure may be a bit light, and there will be skeptics, but the way in which Mr. Sexy annihilated his competition when sprinting on turf here July 26 makes him a player. He was overlooked at 53-1 that day, and he’s likely to be overlooked again by the public. If he can translate that powerful turn off foot to the Polytrack, I’m not about to rule him out. He would be my pick, mainly based on the tote board.

No Jet Lag has been a bit off form since winning a graded stakes event in his second North American start at Santa Anita last October, and on paper. his latest looks absolutely dreadful, but there’s more to that story.

No Jet Lag encountered major trouble entering the first turn, throwing his head about and actually bearing out to the 4-5 path before settling back in behind the leader. That surely didn’t help his cause, and he faded down the stretch after sitting just off hot early splits. I love the idea of the turnback today and think he’s actually the horse the others will have to beat here.

HORSES: 3 – Mr. Sexy, 5 – Caracortado, 6 – No Jet Lag

RACE 8

If you’re alive, you’re likely alive for at least $25,000 if the sequence chalks out. If it doesn’t, you could be alive for a life-changing score. If I’m alive, I’ll only have one runner covered in the finale.

I like both Watch It Buster and first-time starter Mr. Casanova, but I needed to cut somewhere for budgetary constraints.

Aperfectdaytofly drops from an open maiden special weight affair to a statebred maiden-claiming event, which could be viewed as a red flag – and probably should be. I’m of the thought that the connections wanted to see what they had in his debut and drop him in for a tag here. He’s a 6-year-old gelding who is making his second career start. I think this is a situation where they’re looking to grab a victory at Del Mar and hopefully have the horse claimed away.

After breaking slowly in his debut, this son of Perfect Mandate began striding out beautifully late and galloped out very nicely. I think he’s got the edge on the rest of the field.

HORSES: 5 – Aperfectdaytofly

THE PLAY: 6,7 / 5 / 4,6,7,10 / 6,7 / 3,5,6 / 5 = $96