Bernier: Pick four for middle portion of Preakness card

Race 6 at Pimlico on Saturday kicks off a $500,000-guaranteed pick four featuring two graded stakes races on turf and a stakes race on the main track. Unless you’ve been living under a rock this week, you’re aware that the Baltimore area has been plagued by rain, dramatically affecting the main track and turf course. Below is a preliminary look at the pick four, but this play is subject to change.

RACE 6

UNCLE MOJO (7) lost in his first start off a layoff for Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez at Keeneland on April 19, but I’m expecting him to move forward Saturday. He’s performed well on an off track in the past, and he fits well from a speed-figure perspective. I’ll also use HOLLYWOOD STRIKE (1), making his first start against winners after breaking through in start No. 14 on April 21, and BO VUK (3), who is 2 for 2 over off going.

RACE 7 – GRADE 2 DIXIE

WORLD APPROVAL (7) and DIVISIDERO (8) are the two best horses in the race but are questionable from a form standpoint. World Approval’s 2018 campaign hasn’t gone as planned; he was initially pointing for a Grade 1 turf mile at Keeneland before the connections called an audible, focusing on the Turf Classic at Churchill Downs two weeks ago. Unfortunately for them, World Approval ran in neither of those events, and one would imagine his dismal effort in the Kilroe Mile had something to do with that. His best race makes him the horse to beat, but I’ll lean against him at a very short price.

As for Divisidero, he certainly can win this race if he comes with his best effort off a long layoff, but his best days may be past him. Conversely, it’s possible that FIRE AWAY (1) is the “now” horse for Shug McGaughey, entering off a solid victory in the Danger’s Hour at Aqueduct on April 8. The 102 Beyer Speed Figure he earned is the highest last-out Beyer in the field, and he may be approaching a peak effort in his second start off the layoff.

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RACE 8 – CHICK LANG

From a speed-figure standpoint, MITOLE (5) will be very tough to get around; from a race-shape standpoint, a case can be made against Mitole on Saturday. Most of Mitole’s best efforts this year have come on loose, lonely leads – a scenario that doesn’t seem likely Saturday since there appears to be a solid amount of early foot signed on. It’s possible he’s simply the best horse in the race, but I’m hesitant to single him at a very short price (it’s also worth noting he was defeated in his only off-track start at odds of 2-5 three starts back).

SOUTACHE (9) has always had the look of a talented runner, and the pace scenario in the Chick Lang should work to his advantage. A modestly bred son of Backtalk, Soutache breaks from the far-outside post beneath Irad Ortiz Jr., and he’s shown the ability to rate off a hot pace and take advantage rounding the far turn. If Soutache can handle the off going, he rates an upset chance.

RACE 9 – GRADE 3 GALLORETTE

CAMBODIA (5) is the horse to beat, but her past two starts leave a bit to be desired. Following a dull effort in the Matriarch to round out her 2017 campaign, this Tom Proctor trainee returned in the Jenny Wiley at Keeneland on April 14 and never threatened; perhaps she needed a race off the bench, but I still don’t feel confident enough in her recent form to single her at a short price. I’ll also use Christophe Clement’s runner, BLESSED SILENCE (6). Blessed Silence was rank early in her North American debut at Aqueduct on April 22, but her form on soft going in Europe leads me to believe she’ll handle the soggy turf very well – and that alone makes her a serious threat.

THE PLAY
50-cent pick four: 1,3,7 / 1 / 5,9 / 5,6 = $6